Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

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Illinois House District 94

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Joshua S. Higgins (R), Rep. Norine K. Hammond (R)

Illinois House District 94: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanIowa House 100: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+27Iowa House 82: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+23Iowa House 95: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+42Iowa House 96: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+13Iowa House 98: chance of a Democratic win 65%; 2024 president R+2Iowa House 99: chance of a Democratic win 10%; 2024 president R+8Illinois House 108: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+38Illinois House 71: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+8Illinois House 72: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+19Illinois House 87: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+38Illinois House 93: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+26Illinois House 99: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+41Missouri House 4: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+62Illinois House District 94: No Democrat running: counted Republican72IA 96IA 100IA 8271IA 95999387108MO 494
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 94 is safe Republican. Of its 13 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 11 favour Republicans. 7 of them are across the state line.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesJoshua S. Higgins (R), Rep. Norine K. Hammond (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberNorine Hammond

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Governor 2022R+38
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+36
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtIllinois
Median household income$64,606$81,702
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)20%37%
Median age4539
White (not Hispanic)94%59%
Black1%14%
Hispanic2%18%
Asian0%6%
Born abroad1%14%
Jobs in manufacturing14%12%
Jobs in farming or mining6%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.