Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Florida Senate

Florida Senate District 35

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat)

Florida Senate District 35: Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat)Florida Senate 26: chance of a Democratic win 94%Florida Senate 28: chance of a Democratic win 7%Florida Senate 30: chance of a Democratic win 96%Florida Senate 32: chance of a Democratic win >99%Florida Senate 34: chance of a Democratic win 96%Florida Senate 37: not up in 2026 (held by another party or independent); 2024 president D+8Florida Senate 39: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+12Florida Senate 40: chance of a Democratic win 5%Florida Senate District 35: Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat)34393726284035
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 35 is not up in 2026 (held by a Democrat). Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 3 favour Republicans, 1 has no 2026 forecast.

StatusNot up in 2026 (held by Democrat)
Current memberBarbara Sharief

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024D+13
President 2024D+19
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtFlorida
Median household income$93,003$71,711
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)42%33%
Median age4143
White (not Hispanic)26%51%
Black19%15%
Hispanic45%27%
Asian6%3%
Born abroad39%21%
Jobs in manufacturing5%5%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.