Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Florida Senate

Florida Senate District 32

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Republican running: counted Democrat · Crescente Furnaguera (independent), Rosalind Osgood (D)

Florida Senate District 32: No Republican running: counted DemocratFlorida Senate 30: chance of a Democratic win 96%Florida Senate 35: not up in 2026 (held by democrat); 2024 president D+19Florida Senate 37: not up in 2026 (held by another party or independent); 2024 president D+8Florida Senate District 32: No Republican running: counted Democrat30373532
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 32 is safe Democratic. Of its 3 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 1 has no 2026 forecast.

StatusNo Republican running: counted Democrat
CandidatesCrescente Furnaguera (independent), Rosalind Osgood (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberRosalind Osgood

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtFlorida
Median household income$64,402$71,711
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)28%33%
Median age4043
White (not Hispanic)22%51%
Black47%15%
Hispanic24%27%
Asian3%3%
Born abroad36%21%
Jobs in manufacturing5%5%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.