Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Utah Senate

Utah Senate District 20

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Annette McRae (Forward), Ronald M Winterton (R)

Utah Senate District 20: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanColorado Senate 8: chance of a Democratic win 98%Utah Senate 15: not up in 2026 (held by democrat); 2024 president D+17Utah Senate 2: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+36Utah Senate 21: chance of a Democratic win 4%Utah Senate 24: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+30Utah Senate 26: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+38Utah Senate 3: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+10Wyoming Senate 11: chance of a Democratic win 5%Wyoming Senate 14: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+65Wyoming Senate 15: chance of a Democratic win <1%Utah Senate District 20: No Democrat running: counted Republican2432WY 14WY 11CO 82620
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 20 is safe Republican. Of its 10 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 8 favour Republicans. 4 of them are across the state line.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesAnnette McRae (Forward), Ronald M Winterton (R)
Candidate list fromofficial (archive copy)
Current memberRon Winterton

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022R+37
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtUtah
Median household income$92,478$91,750
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)36%37%
Median age3532
White (not Hispanic)82%76%
Black0%1%
Hispanic11%15%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad6%9%
Jobs in manufacturing5%10%
Jobs in farming or mining7%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.