Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Tennessee House

Tennessee House District 90

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Gloria Johnson (D)

Tennessee House District 90: Decided: only a Democrat is runningTennessee House 15: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+34Tennessee House 16: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+36Tennessee House 18: chance of a Democratic win 14%; 2024 president R+9Tennessee House 19: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+51Tennessee House 89: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+29Tennessee House District 90: Decided: only a Democrat is running1618891990
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 90 is safe Democratic. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 4 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesGloria Johnson (D)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberGloria Johnson

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022D+16
Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+14
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtTennessee
Median household income$50,966$67,097
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)34%30%
Median age3639
White (not Hispanic)73%71%
Black11%16%
Hispanic9%7%
Asian2%2%
Born abroad10%6%
Jobs in manufacturing9%13%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.