Tennessee elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Tennessee Senate
R 99%
Bill Hagerty · Marquita Bradshaw
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
Tennessee Governor
R 97%
Jerri Green · Marsha Blackburn
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-1 | Kristi Burke · Diana Harshbarger | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-2 | Michaela Barnett · Tim Burchett | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-3 | Anna Golladay · Chuck Fleischmann | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-4 | Victoria Broderick · Scott DesJarlais | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-5 | Chaz Molder · Charlie Hatcher | R 89% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-6 | Mike Croley · Johnny Garrett | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-7 | Darden Copeland · Matt Van Epps | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-8 | Heidi Kuhn · David Kustoff | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TN-9 | Justin J. Pearson · Brent Taylor | R 92% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee House | 99 | 50 | <1% | >99% |
| Tennessee Senate | 17 | 17 | <1% | >99% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Tennessee election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.