Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › South Dakota House

South Dakota House District 29

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats · Gary L Cammack (R), Gary Deering (R)

South Dakota House District 29: Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seatsSouth Dakota House 24: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+41South Dakota House 27: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president evenSouth Dakota House 28A: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+10South Dakota House 28B: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+66South Dakota House 31: chance of a Democratic win 6%; 2024 president R+32South Dakota House 33: chance of a Democratic win 6%; 2024 president R+36South Dakota House 35: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+35South Dakota House District 29: Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats3533312428B2728A29
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 29 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 7 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats
CandidatesGary L Cammack (R), Gary Deering (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022no two-party contest; won by Kirk Chaffee (Republican)
Governor 2022R+51
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+53
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtSouth Dakota
Median household income$69,771$72,421
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)26%31%
Median age3638
White (not Hispanic)85%80%
Black2%2%
Hispanic5%5%
Asian1%1%
Born abroad1%4%
Jobs in manufacturing4%10%
Jobs in farming or mining6%6%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.