Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › South Dakota House

South Dakota House District 24

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats · Laurie Gill (R), Mike Weisgram (R)

South Dakota House District 24: Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seatsSouth Dakota House 23: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+61South Dakota House 26A: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+27South Dakota House 26B: chance of a Democratic win 6%; 2024 president R+38South Dakota House 27: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president evenSouth Dakota House 28A: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+10South Dakota House 29: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+53South Dakota House District 24: Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats26A2926B272328A24
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 24 is safe Republican. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 5 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats
CandidatesLaurie Gill (R), Mike Weisgram (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Governor 2022R+38
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+41
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtSouth Dakota
Median household income$77,343$72,421
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)32%31%
Median age4138
White (not Hispanic)83%80%
Black0%2%
Hispanic2%5%
Asian1%1%
Born abroad1%4%
Jobs in manufacturing3%10%
Jobs in farming or mining9%6%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.