Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Pennsylvania Senate

Pennsylvania Senate District 42

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Wayne D Fontana (D)

Pennsylvania Senate District 42: Decided: only a Democrat is runningPennsylvania Senate 37: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president D+8Pennsylvania Senate 38: chance of a Democratic win 97%Pennsylvania Senate 43: not up in 2026 (held by democrat); 2024 president D+42Pennsylvania Senate 45: not up in 2026 (held by democrat); 2024 president D+13Pennsylvania Senate District 42: Decided: only a Democrat is running4345383742
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 42 is safe Democratic. Of its 4 neighbouring districts, 3 favour Democrats, 1 favours Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesWayne D Fontana (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberWayne Fontana

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (D)
Governor 2022D+45
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtPennsylvania
Median household income$72,643$76,081
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)43%34%
Median age3941
White (not Hispanic)74%74%
Black14%10%
Hispanic3%8%
Asian4%4%
Born abroad6%7%
Jobs in manufacturing7%11%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.