Oregon elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Oregon Senate
D 98%
David Brock Smith · Jeff Merkley
October 30, 2026, 6:13 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (01:13 UTC).
Governor
Oregon Governor
D 84%
Christine Drazan · Tina Kotek
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR-1 | Suzanne Bonamici · Barbara Kahl | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| OR-2 | Chris Beck · Cliff Bentz | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| OR-3 | Maxine Dexter · Loran Ayles | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| OR-4 | Val Hoyle · Justin Filip · Monique DeSpain | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| OR-5 | Janelle Bynum · Andrea Townsend · Patti Adair | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| OR-6 | Andrea Salinas · David Russ | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon House | 60 | 31 | >99% | <1% |
| Oregon Senate | 15 | 16 | 98% | <1% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Oregon election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.