Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › New Mexico House

New Mexico House District 64

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Andrea Reeb (R)

New Mexico House District 64: Decided: only a Republican is runningNew Mexico House 56: chance of a Democratic win <1%New Mexico House 59: chance of a Democratic win <1%New Mexico House 63: chance of a Democratic win <1%New Mexico House 66: chance of a Democratic win <1%New Mexico House 67: chance of a Democratic win 4%Texas House 86: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+62Texas House 88: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+71New Mexico House District 64: Decided: only a Republican is running59665663TX 8667TX 8864
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 64 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 7 favour Republicans. 2 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesAndrea Reeb (R)
Candidate list fromwikipedia
Current memberAndi Reeb

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022no two-party contest; won by Andrea R Reeb (Republican)
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNew Mexico
Median household income$66,839$62,125
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)31%30%
Median age3339
White (not Hispanic)59%37%
Black2%2%
Hispanic33%48%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad5%9%
Jobs in manufacturing4%4%
Jobs in farming or mining9%4%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.