New Mexico elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
New Mexico Senate
D 97%
Ben Ray Luján · Larry Marker
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
New Mexico Governor
D 91%
Deb Haaland · Gregg Hull
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-1 | Melanie Stansbury · Didi Okpareke | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NM-2 | Gabe Vasquez · Greg Cunningham | D 82% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NM-3 | Teresa Leger Fernández · Martin Zamora | D 99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico House | 70 | 36 | >99% | <1% |
| New Mexico Senate | 0 | 22 | No seats up in this snapshot | |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
New Mexico election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.