Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Kentucky House

Kentucky House District 92

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · John Blanton (R)

Kentucky House District 92: Decided: only a Republican is runningKentucky House 84: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+62Kentucky House 89: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+64Kentucky House 94: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+68Kentucky House 95: chance of a Democratic win 95%; 2024 president R+59Kentucky House 97: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+74Kentucky House 99: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+45Kentucky House District 92: Decided: only a Republican is running95979499898492
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 92 is safe Republican. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 5 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesJohn Blanton (R)
Candidate list fromwikipedia
Current memberJohn Blanton

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+65
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtKentucky
Median household income$37,801$62,417
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)15%27%
Median age4439
White (not Hispanic)97%82%
Black0%8%
Hispanic1%5%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad0%4%
Jobs in manufacturing6%14%
Jobs in farming or mining5%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.