Kentucky elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Kentucky Senate
R 94%
Andy Barr · Charles Booker
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
No 2026 governor race is listed in FutureBallot’s current coverage. Check the official election office below.
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-1 | John "Drew" Williams · James R. Comer | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| KY-2 | Megan Wingfield · Thomas A. Loecken · S. Brett Guthrie | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| KY-3 | Morgan McGarvey · Maria Teresa Rodriguez | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| KY-4 | Melissa Claire Strange · Jeremy Todd · Ed Gallrein | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| KY-5 | Ned Pillersdorf · Gerardo Serrano · Mikel Wein · Hal Rogers | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| KY-6 | Zach Dembo · JAY J BOWMAN · Pete Lynch · Ralph Alvarado | D 59% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky House | 100 | 51 | <1% | >99% |
| Kentucky Senate | 19 | 20 | <1% | >99% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Kentucky election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.