Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Kansas House

Kansas House District 61

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Francis Awerkamp (R)

Kansas House District 61: Decided: only a Republican is runningKansas House 106: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+62Kansas House 47: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+33Kansas House 50: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+29Kansas House 51: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+36Kansas House 62: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+60Kansas House 64: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+53Kansas House 66: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+25Kansas House District 61: Decided: only a Republican is running66504751626410661
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 61 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 6 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesFrancis Awerkamp (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberFrancis Awerkamp

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024no two-party contest; won by Francis Awerkamp (Republican)
President 2024R+46
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtKansas
Median household income$70,037$72,639
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)28%35%
Median age3637
White (not Hispanic)82%73%
Black1%5%
Hispanic9%13%
Asian0%3%
Born abroad4%7%
Jobs in manufacturing13%12%
Jobs in farming or mining4%3%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.