Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Alabama House

Alabama House District 46

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · David L. Faulkner (R)

Alabama House District 46: Decided: only a Republican is runningAlabama House 15: chance of a Democratic win 1%Alabama House 45: chance of a Democratic win 5%Alabama House 47: chance of a Democratic win 1%Alabama House 48: chance of a Democratic win <1%Alabama House 52: chance of a Democratic win >99%Alabama House 54: chance of a Democratic win >99%Alabama House 55: chance of a Democratic win >99%Alabama House 56: chance of a Democratic win >99%Alabama House District 46: Decided: only a Republican is running5254554856154546
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 46 is safe Republican. Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 4 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesDavid L. Faulkner (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberDavid Faulkner

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Governor 2022R+43
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtAlabama
Median household income$128,731$62,027
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)75%28%
Median age3539
White (not Hispanic)81%64%
Black8%26%
Hispanic3%5%
Asian4%1%
Born abroad5%4%
Jobs in manufacturing6%14%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.