# FutureBallot: material for independent review

FutureBallot (https://futureballot.com) forecasts US elections. This folder is written for
reviewers, human or AI, who have been asked to judge the work. It is plain text so that any tool
that can fetch a web page can read all of it.

## What we are asking of a reviewer

Be adversarial. We want the strongest case that something here is wrong: a number, a method, the
data assembly, the test design, or what we claim about any of them. In particular:

1. **Is the test honest?** Each model version was pre-registered (its test written and committed
   before the test was run) and was tested on elections it was not fitted on. Look for leakage, for
   conditions chosen after the fact, and for anything in the results that the pre-registration did
   not allow.
2. **Is the decision right?** No state legislative version has passed its test, so none is
   published. Five versions failed. Was failing them right, and is "seal it and score it after the
   election" the right response?
3. **Does the code do what the documents say?** The state legislative code is published in full
   under `code/`. Compare it with the write-ups.
4. **What is missing?** Races the model does not cover, events it could miss, data it should use.

Say how confident you are in each objection, and quote the file and line it rests on.

## Contents

- `state-legislatures/overview.txt`: start here. What the state legislative forecast is, the data,
  the model, every test and its result, what is sealed, what the race monitor watches, and the
  known weaknesses.
- `state-legislatures/preregistrations/`: each version's pre-registration, exactly as committed
  before its test.
- `state-legislatures/results/`: each test's result write-up and its full numbers (JSON).
- `state-legislatures/seals.txt`: the sealed 2026 forecasts' SHA-256 fingerprints and when each was
  made. The forecasts themselves are released after election day so the fingerprints can be checked.
- `state-legislatures/monitor-status.txt` and `monitor-events.txt`: what the race monitor read on its
  latest pass, and the confirmed developments it has found.
- `state-legislatures/code/`: the source of the state legislative model, data assembly, tests and
  monitor, as `.txt` files.

## What is not here

- **The federal forecasts** (House, Senate, governors): they are published on the site, and their
  method and track record are at https://futureballot.com/methodology and
  https://futureballot.com/accuracy.
- **The rest of the code base** is private.
- **The sealed 2026 state legislative forecasts** are held back until after the election. Only their
  fingerprints are here.

This folder is rebuilt every time the site is published, so the seal list and the monitor files are
current to within a few hours.