# FutureBallot

> Free, independent, nonpartisan and data-based forecasts of the 2026 US elections (House, Senate,
> governors) that show their method, inputs and sources, with no advertising. For journalists,
> researchers and readers who want to check a forecast rather than take it on trust.

Three kinds of material, kept apart:
- **Live forecasts** (published, updated daily): 2026 is their first live test.
- **Reconstructed tests** of past elections (walk-forward backtests): the model design was
  developed while studying those elections, so they are weaker evidence than live results.
- **An initial version**: state legislatures, published from 2026-10-15 although no version
  has passed its pre-registered test (the published one, 0.11, fails one of five conditions:
  2024's ranges too wide; 0.11 is 0.10 plus a change that passed its own pre-registered
  test); labelled as such on every page, and sealed daily (fingerprint timestamped).

## Forecasts
- [Front page](https://futureballot.com/): control of the House, Senate and governorships
- [State legislatures](https://futureballot.com/state-legislatures): every chamber with a 2026 election, initial
  version
- [Senate](https://futureballot.com/senate), [Governors](https://futureballot.com/governors), [House districts](https://futureballot.com/districts)
- [Chambers in detail](https://futureballot.com/chambers): seat ranges and control probabilities
- [What changed since yesterday](https://futureballot.com/changes); daily bulletin: [The Margin](https://futureballot.com/bulletin)
- [Reported race developments](https://futureballot.com/events): withdrawals, deaths, charges, list changes
- [Downloads](https://futureballot.com/data): every forecast as CSV/JSON, and a timestamped daily archive

## How far to trust them
- [Methodology](https://futureballot.com/methodology)
- [Accuracy](https://futureballot.com/accuracy): walk-forward results on past elections, including every wrong call
- [Model health](https://futureballot.com/model-health): freshness of polls and data sources
- [Receipts](https://futureballot.com/receipts): what pundits and FutureBallot said, against what happened
- [Glossary](https://futureballot.com/glossary), [About](https://futureballot.com/about)

## For independent review (human or AI)
Plain-text material written for adversarial review: start with the brief.
- [Review brief](https://futureballot.com/review/README.txt): what we ask of a reviewer, and the contents
- [State legislatures: overview](https://futureballot.com/review/state-legislatures/overview.txt)
- [State legislatures: file index](https://futureballot.com/review/state-legislatures/index.txt), including the
  model code, every pre-registration and result, and the seal proofs