Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-8 | Oct 16–22, 2026 | The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400 LV | Cognetti 51 (D) · Bresnahan 46 (R) | D+5 | No citation |
| PA-10 | Oct 16–22, 2026 | The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400 LV | Stelson 48 (D) · Perry 48 (R) | Even | No citation |
| PA-1 | Oct 16–22, 2026 | The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400 LV | Harvie 48 (D) · Fitzpatrick 46 (R) | D+2 | Not checked yet release |
| PA-7 | Oct 16–22, 2026 | The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400 LV | Brooks 49 (D) · Mackenzie 44 (R) | D+5 | No citation |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Oct 1–21, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Shapiro 62 (D) · Garrity 39 (R) | D+23 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Oct 7–18, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 808 RV | Shapiro 52 (D) · Garrity 30 (R) | D+22 | Disputed release |
| PA-7 | Oct 6–15, 2026 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 529 LV | Brooks 49 (D) · Mackenzie 43 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| PA-8 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 396 LV | Cognetti 52 (D) · Bresnahan 48 (R) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| PA-10 | Oct 5–11, 2026 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 300 LV | Stelson 49 (D) · Perry 46 (R) | D+3 | Not checked yet release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Oct 5–11, 2026 | PennLive for Bravo Group | 628 RV | Shapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 28 (R) | D+30 | Citation unreadable release |
| PA-1 | Oct 1–8, 2026 | Global Strategy Group for Harvie's campaign partisan sponsor | 1032 LV | Harvie 46 (D) · Fitzpatrick 46 (R) | Even | Citation unreadable release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Oct 1–5, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 1159 LV | Shapiro 59 (D) · Garrity 34 (R) | D+25 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising partisan sponsor | 630 LV | Shapiro 53 (D) · Garrity 34 (R) | D+19 | Not checked yet release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Sep 22–30, 2026 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 700 LV | Shapiro 52 (D) · Garrity 31 (R) | D+21 | Not checked yet release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Sep 15–22, 2026 | The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 615 LV | Shapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 38 (R) | D+20 | Checked release |
| PA-10 | Sep 9–20, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 390 RV | Stelson 47 (D) · Perry 44 (R) | D+3 | No citation |
| PA-7 | Sep 9–20, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 357 RV | Brooks 45 (D) · Mackenzie 40 (R) | D+5 | Checked release |
| PA-1 | Sep 11–14, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategiespartisan sponsor | 400 RV | Fitzpatrick 49 (R) · Harvie 40 (D) | R+9 | No citation |
| PA-1 | Aug 19–23, 2026 | GQR Research for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Fitzpatrick 49 (R) · Harvie 48 (D) | R+1 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Aug 17–23, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 501 RV | Shapiro 50 (D) · Garrity 25 (R) | D+25 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Aug 18–22, 2026 | PennLive for Bravo Group | 711 RV | Shapiro 56 (D) · Garrity 25 (R) | D+31 | Not checked yet release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Aug 17–21, 2026 | The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 760 LV | Shapiro 55 (D) · Garrity 39 (R) | D+16 | Checked release |
| PA-1 | Aug 5–9, 2026 | Global Strategy Grouppartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Fitzpatrick 47 (R) · Harvie 43 (D) | R+4 | Release found release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Jul 26–30, 2026 | National Public Affairs | 600 LV | Shapiro 50 (D) · Garrity 43 (R) | D+7 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Jul 9–13, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 895 RV | Shapiro 53 (D) · Garrity 40 (R) | D+13 | Checked release |
| PA-7 | Jun 29–Jul 2, 2026 | GBAO for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 550 LV | Brooks 47 (D) · Mackenzie 43 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| PA-8 | Jun 18–23, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 400 V | Cognetti 47 (D) · Bresnahan 45 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Jun 8–14, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 546 RV | Shapiro 50 (D) · Garrity 28 (R) | D+22 | Checked release |
| PA-8 | Jun 8–11, 2026 | Impact Researchpartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Cognetti 46 (D) · Bresnahan 45 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Jun 9–11, 2026 | MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | 600 LV | Shapiro 48 (D) · Garrity 31 (R) | D+17 | Checked release |
| PA-10 | Apr 20–23, 2026 | Normington, Petts and Associatespartisan sponsor | 400 RV | Stelson 51 (D) · Perry 45 (R) | D+6 | Release found release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Mar 18–29, 2026 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 700 LV | Shapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 36 (R) | D+22 | Release found release |
| PA-1 | Mar 19–22, 2026 | Global Strategy Grouppartisan sponsor | 400 LV | Fitzpatrick 48 (R) · Harvie 42 (D) | R+6 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Feb 18–Mar 1, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 834 RV | Shapiro 48 (D) · Garrity 28 (R) | D+20 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Feb 19–23, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 836 RV | Shapiro 55 (D) · Garrity 37 (R) | D+18 | Checked release |
| PA-10 | Nov 18–19, 2025 | Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor | 549 RV | Stelson 48 (D) · Perry 44 (R) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| PA-1 | Oct 10–11, 2025 | Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor | 585 LV | Harvie 41 (D) · Fitzpatrick 41 (R) | Even | Release found release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Sep 25–29, 2025 | Quinnipiac University | 1579 RV | Shapiro 55 (D) · Garrity 39 (R) | D+16 | Checked release |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Sep 22–28, 2025 | Susquehanna Polling & Researchpartisan sponsor | 700 LV | Shapiro 54 (D) · Garrity 36 (R) | D+18 | Checked |
| PA-8 | Aug 27–28, 2025 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 615 V | Cognetti 45 (D) · Bresnahan 43 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| PA-10 | Jul 10–11, 2025 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 559 V | Stelson 46 (D) · Perry 43 (R) | D+3 | Checked release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania Governor | 19 | Oct 21, 2026 | D+23 (7) | D+23 | Pennsylvania Governor forecast |
| PA-1 | 7 | Oct 22, 2026 | D+1 (2) | — | PA-1 forecast |
| PA-10 | 6 | Oct 22, 2026 | D+2 (2) | — | PA-10 forecast |
| PA-8 | 5 | Oct 22, 2026 | D+4 (2) | — | PA-8 forecast |
| PA-7 | 4 | Oct 22, 2026 | D+6 (2) | — | PA-7 forecast |