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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
PA-8Oct 16–22, 2026The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University400 LVCognetti 51 (D) · Bresnahan 46 (R)D+5No citation
PA-10Oct 16–22, 2026The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University400 LVStelson 48 (D) · Perry 48 (R)EvenNo citation
PA-1Oct 16–22, 2026The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University400 LVHarvie 48 (D) · Fitzpatrick 46 (R)D+2Not checked yet release
PA-7Oct 16–22, 2026The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University400 LVBrooks 49 (D) · Mackenzie 44 (R)D+5No citation
Pennsylvania GovernorOct 1–21, 2026ActiVote400 LVShapiro 62 (D) · Garrity 39 (R)D+23Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorOct 7–18, 2026Franklin & Marshall College808 RVShapiro 52 (D) · Garrity 30 (R)D+22Disputed release
PA-7Oct 6–15, 2026Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion529 LVBrooks 49 (D) · Mackenzie 43 (R)D+6Checked release
PA-8Oct 12–14, 2026Emerson College
for Poll Vault
396 LVCognetti 52 (D) · Bresnahan 48 (R)D+4Not checked yet release
PA-10Oct 5–11, 2026Susquehanna Polling & Research300 LVStelson 49 (D) · Perry 46 (R)D+3Not checked yet release
Pennsylvania GovernorOct 5–11, 2026PennLive
for Bravo Group
628 RVShapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 28 (R)D+30Citation unreadable release
PA-1Oct 1–8, 2026Global Strategy Group
for Harvie's campaign
partisan sponsor
1032 LVHarvie 46 (D) · Fitzpatrick 46 (R)EvenCitation unreadable release
Pennsylvania GovernorOct 1–5, 2026Quinnipiac University1159 LVShapiro 59 (D) · Garrity 34 (R)D+25Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 28–Oct 1, 2026Z to A Research
for Rust Belt Rising
partisan sponsor
630 LVShapiro 53 (D) · Garrity 34 (R)D+19Not checked yet release
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 22–30, 2026Susquehanna Polling & Research700 LVShapiro 52 (D) · Garrity 31 (R)D+21Not checked yet release
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 15–22, 2026The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University615 LVShapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 38 (R)D+20Checked release
PA-10Sep 9–20, 2026Franklin & Marshall College390 RVStelson 47 (D) · Perry 44 (R)D+3No citation
PA-7Sep 9–20, 2026Franklin & Marshall College357 RVBrooks 45 (D) · Mackenzie 40 (R)D+5Checked release
PA-1Sep 11–14, 2026Public Opinion Strategiespartisan sponsor400 RVFitzpatrick 49 (R) · Harvie 40 (D)R+9No citation
PA-1Aug 19–23, 2026GQR Research
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
400 LVFitzpatrick 49 (R) · Harvie 48 (D)R+1Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorAug 17–23, 2026Franklin & Marshall College501 RVShapiro 50 (D) · Garrity 25 (R)D+25Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorAug 18–22, 2026PennLive
for Bravo Group
711 RVShapiro 56 (D) · Garrity 25 (R)D+31Not checked yet release
Pennsylvania GovernorAug 17–21, 2026The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University760 LVShapiro 55 (D) · Garrity 39 (R)D+16Checked release
PA-1Aug 5–9, 2026Global Strategy Grouppartisan sponsor500 LVFitzpatrick 47 (R) · Harvie 43 (D)R+4Release found release
Pennsylvania GovernorJul 26–30, 2026National Public Affairs600 LVShapiro 50 (D) · Garrity 43 (R)D+7Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorJul 9–13, 2026Quinnipiac University895 RVShapiro 53 (D) · Garrity 40 (R)D+13Checked release
PA-7Jun 29–Jul 2, 2026GBAO
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
550 LVBrooks 47 (D) · Mackenzie 43 (R)D+4Checked release
PA-8Jun 18–23, 2026Lake Research Partners
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
400 VCognetti 47 (D) · Bresnahan 45 (R)D+2Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorJun 8–14, 2026Franklin & Marshall College546 RVShapiro 50 (D) · Garrity 28 (R)D+22Checked release
PA-8Jun 8–11, 2026Impact Researchpartisan sponsor500 LVCognetti 46 (D) · Bresnahan 45 (R)D+1Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorJun 9–11, 2026MAD Global Strategy
for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future
600 LVShapiro 48 (D) · Garrity 31 (R)D+17Checked release
PA-10Apr 20–23, 2026Normington, Petts and Associatespartisan sponsor400 RVStelson 51 (D) · Perry 45 (R)D+6Release found release
Pennsylvania GovernorMar 18–29, 2026Susquehanna Polling & Research700 LVShapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 36 (R)D+22Release found release
PA-1Mar 19–22, 2026Global Strategy Grouppartisan sponsor400 LVFitzpatrick 48 (R) · Harvie 42 (D)R+6Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorFeb 18–Mar 1, 2026Franklin & Marshall College834 RVShapiro 48 (D) · Garrity 28 (R)D+20Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorFeb 19–23, 2026Quinnipiac University836 RVShapiro 55 (D) · Garrity 37 (R)D+18Checked release
PA-10Nov 18–19, 2025Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor549 RVStelson 48 (D) · Perry 44 (R)D+4Not checked yet release
PA-1Oct 10–11, 2025Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor585 LVHarvie 41 (D) · Fitzpatrick 41 (R)EvenRelease found release
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 25–29, 2025Quinnipiac University1579 RVShapiro 55 (D) · Garrity 39 (R)D+16Checked release
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 22–28, 2025Susquehanna Polling & Researchpartisan sponsor700 LVShapiro 54 (D) · Garrity 36 (R)D+18Checked
PA-8Aug 27–28, 2025Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
615 VCognetti 45 (D) · Bresnahan 43 (R)D+2Checked release
PA-10Jul 10–11, 2025Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
559 VStelson 46 (D) · Perry 43 (R)D+3Checked release

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Pennsylvania Governor19Oct 21, 2026D+23 (7)D+23Pennsylvania Governor forecast
PA-17Oct 22, 2026D+1 (2)—PA-1 forecast
PA-106Oct 22, 2026D+2 (2)—PA-10 forecast
PA-85Oct 22, 2026D+4 (2)—PA-8 forecast
PA-74Oct 22, 2026D+6 (2)—PA-7 forecast