Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-6 | Oct 19–20, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 572 LV | Dembo 47 (D) · Alvarado 41 (R) | D+6 | Not checked yet release |
| KY-6 | Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026 | Change Research for Kentuckians Not Corruption partisan sponsor | 524 LV | Dembo 47 (D) · Alvarado 38 (R) | D+9 | Checked release |
| KY-6 | Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Dembo 47 (D) · Alvarado 40 (R) | D+7 | Not checked yet release |
| KY-6 | Sep 25–30, 2026 | GQR Research for Dembo's campaign partisan sponsor | 401 LV | Dembo 42 (D) · Alvarado 37 (R) | D+5 | Not checked yet release |
| Kentucky Senate | Aug 24–27, 2026 | Global Strategy Group for Charles Booker campaign campaign internal | 600 LV | Barr 49 (R) · Booker 40 (D) | R+9 | Release found release |
| KY-6 | Aug 17–23, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Dembo 45 (D) · Alvarado 44 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| KY-6 | Jun 24–28, 2026 | GQR Research for Zach Dembo campaign campaign internal | 440 V | Alvarado 42 (R) · Dembo 39 (D) | R+3 | Checked release |
| KY-6 | Apr 24–25, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for New Politics partisan sponsor | 675 RV | Alvarado 37 (R) · Dembo 37 (D) | Even | Checked release |
| Kentucky Senate | Dec 18–19, 2025 | Public Policy Polling for Charles Booker campaign campaign internal | 650 V | Barr 49 (R) · Booker 38 (D) | R+11 | Checked |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Senate | 2 | Aug 27, 2026 | R+9 (1) | R+12 | Kentucky Senate forecast |
| KY-6 | 7 | Oct 20, 2026 | D+7 (4) | — | KY-6 forecast |