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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
KY-6Oct 19–20, 2026Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
572 LVDembo 47 (D) · Alvarado 41 (R)D+6Not checked yet release
KY-6Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026Change Research
for Kentuckians Not Corruption
partisan sponsor
524 LVDembo 47 (D) · Alvarado 38 (R)D+9Checked release
KY-6Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026Lake Research Partners
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
400 LVDembo 47 (D) · Alvarado 40 (R)D+7Not checked yet release
KY-6Sep 25–30, 2026GQR Research
for Dembo's campaign
partisan sponsor
401 LVDembo 42 (D) · Alvarado 37 (R)D+5Not checked yet release
Kentucky SenateAug 24–27, 2026Global Strategy Group
for Charles Booker campaign
campaign internal
600 LVBarr 49 (R) · Booker 40 (D)R+9Release found release
KY-6Aug 17–23, 2026Lake Research Partners
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
400 LVDembo 45 (D) · Alvarado 44 (R)D+1Checked release
KY-6Jun 24–28, 2026GQR Research
for Zach Dembo campaign
campaign internal
440 VAlvarado 42 (R) · Dembo 39 (D)R+3Checked release
KY-6Apr 24–25, 2026Public Policy Polling
for New Politics
partisan sponsor
675 RVAlvarado 37 (R) · Dembo 37 (D)EvenChecked release
Kentucky SenateDec 18–19, 2025Public Policy Polling
for Charles Booker campaign
campaign internal
650 VBarr 49 (R) · Booker 38 (D)R+11Checked

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Kentucky Senate2Aug 27, 2026R+9 (1)R+12Kentucky Senate forecast
KY-67Oct 20, 2026D+7 (4)—KY-6 forecast