Arkansas elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Arkansas Senate
R 95%
Hallie Shoffner · Tom Cotton
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
Arkansas Governor
R 97%
Fredrick Love · Sarah Huckabee Sanders
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-1 | Terri Yarbrough · Steve Parsons · Rick Crawford | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AR-2 | Chris Jones · French Hill | R 77% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AR-3 | Robb Ryerse · Bobby Wilson · Steve Womack | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AR-4 | James Russell · Bruce Westerman | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas House | 100 | 51 | <1% | >99% |
| Arkansas Senate | 18 | 18 | <1% | >99% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Arkansas election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.