Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-2 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 383 LV | Hill 52 (R) · Jones 48 (D) | R+4 | Not checked yet release |
| Arkansas Senate | Oct 8–13, 2026 | Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics | 709 LV | Cotton 50 (R) · Shoffner 41 (D) | R+9 | Checked release |
| Arkansas Governor | Oct 8–13, 2026 | Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics | 709 LV | Sanders 51 (R) · Love 32 (D) · Shelby 11 (L) | R+19 | Checked release |
| Arkansas Senate | Aug 14–18, 2026 | J.L. Partners | 803 LV | Cotton 51 (R) · Shoffner 35 (D) | R+16 | Checked release |
| AR-2 | Aug 12–13, 2026 | Hendrix College | 1112 LV | Jones 48 (D) · Hill 44 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Arkansas Senate | Aug 11–12, 2026 | Hendrix College | 1217 LV | Shoffner 47 (D) · Cotton 44 (R) | D+3 | Checked release |
| Arkansas Governor | Aug 11–12, 2026 | Hendrix College | 1217 LV | Sanders 45 (R) · Love 40 (D) · Shelby 7 (L) | R+5 | Checked release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas Senate | 3 | Oct 13, 2026 | R+9 (1) | R+10 | Arkansas Senate forecast |
| Arkansas Governor | 2 | Oct 13, 2026 | R+19 (1) | R+14 | Arkansas Governor forecast |
| AR-2 | 2 | Oct 14, 2026 | R+4 (1) | — | AR-2 forecast |