Get the briefing by email: when the forecast moves and weekly through Election Day, then how our forecast did. See one

Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
AR-2Oct 12–14, 2026Emerson College
for Poll Vault
383 LVHill 52 (R) · Jones 48 (D)R+4Not checked yet release
Arkansas SenateOct 8–13, 2026Hendrix College
for Talk Business & Politics
709 LVCotton 50 (R) · Shoffner 41 (D)R+9Checked release
Arkansas GovernorOct 8–13, 2026Hendrix College
for Talk Business & Politics
709 LVSanders 51 (R) · Love 32 (D) · Shelby 11 (L)R+19Checked release
Arkansas SenateAug 14–18, 2026J.L. Partners803 LVCotton 51 (R) · Shoffner 35 (D)R+16Checked release
AR-2Aug 12–13, 2026Hendrix College1112 LVJones 48 (D) · Hill 44 (R)D+4Checked release
Arkansas SenateAug 11–12, 2026Hendrix College1217 LVShoffner 47 (D) · Cotton 44 (R)D+3Checked release
Arkansas GovernorAug 11–12, 2026Hendrix College1217 LVSanders 45 (R) · Love 40 (D) · Shelby 7 (L)R+5Checked release

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Arkansas Senate3Oct 13, 2026R+9 (1)R+10Arkansas Senate forecast
Arkansas Governor2Oct 13, 2026R+19 (1)R+14Arkansas Governor forecast
AR-22Oct 14, 2026R+4 (1)—AR-2 forecast