Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › South Dakota Senate

South Dakota Senate District 9

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Joy Hohn (R)

South Dakota Senate District 9: Decided: only a Republican is runningSouth Dakota Senate 11: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+10South Dakota Senate 15: chance of a Democratic win 77%; 2024 president D+3South Dakota Senate 16: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+46South Dakota Senate 25: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+40South Dakota Senate 6: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+33South Dakota Senate District 9: Decided: only a Republican is running15625169
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 9 is safe Republican. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 4 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesJoy Hohn (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberJoy Hohn

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Governor 2022R+20
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+24
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtSouth Dakota
Median household income$88,065$72,421
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)35%31%
Median age3238
White (not Hispanic)80%80%
Black7%2%
Hispanic7%5%
Asian1%1%
Born abroad7%4%
Jobs in manufacturing10%10%
Jobs in farming or mining2%6%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.