Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › South Carolina Senate

South Carolina Senate District 37

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)

South Carolina Senate District 37: Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)South Carolina Senate 32: not up in 2026 (held by democrat); 2024 president D+4South Carolina Senate 36: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+3South Carolina Senate 39: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+4South Carolina Senate 43: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+12South Carolina Senate 44: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+14South Carolina Senate District 37: Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)443943363237
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 37 is not up in 2026 (held by a Republican). Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 4 favour Republicans.

StatusNot up in 2026 (held by Republican)
Current memberLarry Grooms

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+21
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtSouth Carolina
Median household income$89,426$66,818
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)39%31%
Median age3840
White (not Hispanic)69%62%
Black21%25%
Hispanic5%7%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad4%6%
Jobs in manufacturing12%13%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.