Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › North Dakota Senate

North Dakota Senate District 2

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)

North Dakota Senate District 2: Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)Montana Senate 15: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+61North Dakota Senate 1: chance of a Democratic win <1%North Dakota Senate 23: chance of a Democratic win <1%North Dakota Senate 26: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+79North Dakota Senate 4: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+49North Dakota Senate 6: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+63North Dakota Senate District 2: Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)1232646MT 152
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 2 is not up in 2026 (held by a Republican). Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Republicans. 1 of them is across the state line.

StatusNot up in 2026 (held by Republican)
Current memberMark Enget

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024R+66
President 2024R+70
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNorth Dakota
Median household income$91,431$75,949
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)21%32%
Median age3836
White (not Hispanic)84%83%
Black1%3%
Hispanic8%4%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad2%4%
Jobs in manufacturing4%7%
Jobs in farming or mining21%8%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.