Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Nevada Assembly

Nevada Assembly District 32

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Alexis M. Hansen (R)

Nevada Assembly District 32: Decided: only a Republican is runningCalifornia Assembly 1: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+17Idaho House 23A: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+59Idaho House 23B: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+59Nevada Assembly 25: chance of a Democratic win 95%; 2024 president D+13Nevada Assembly 26: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+7Nevada Assembly 27: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+12Nevada Assembly 31: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+16Nevada Assembly 33: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+59Nevada Assembly 38: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+49Nevada Assembly 40: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+15Oregon House 60: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+52Nevada Assembly District 32: Decided: only a Republican is running40ID 23A38CA 1OR 603332
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 32 is safe Republican. Of its 11 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 9 favour Republicans. 4 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesAlexis M. Hansen (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberAlexis Hansen

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Governor 2022R+34
Legislature 2024R+40
President 2024R+33
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNevada
Median household income$86,154$75,561
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)23%27%
Median age4039
White (not Hispanic)64%46%
Black2%9%
Hispanic23%29%
Asian2%9%
Born abroad9%19%
Jobs in manufacturing7%5%
Jobs in farming or mining11%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.