Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Maryland Senate

Maryland Senate District 24

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Tiffany Alston (D)

Maryland Senate District 24: Decided: only a Democrat is runningMaryland Senate 22: chance of a Democratic win 96%Maryland Senate 23: chance of a Democratic win >99%Maryland Senate 25: chance of a Democratic win >99%Maryland Senate 26: chance of a Democratic win >99%Maryland Senate 47: chance of a Democratic win >99%Maryland Senate District 24: Decided: only a Democrat is running472225262324
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 24 is safe Democratic. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 5 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesTiffany Alston (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberJoanne Benson

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (D)
Governor 2022D+90
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMaryland
Median household income$102,614$101,652
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)36%43%
Median age4139
White (not Hispanic)5%47%
Black76%29%
Hispanic13%12%
Asian2%6%
Born abroad19%16%
Jobs in manufacturing2%5%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.