Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Maine Senate

Maine Senate District 32

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Republican running: counted Democrat · Henry Ingwersen (D), Jason Litalien (independent)

Maine Senate District 32: No Republican running: counted DemocratMaine Senate 22: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+17Maine Senate 31: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+18Maine Senate 33: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+10Maine Senate 34: chance of a Democratic win 93%; 2024 president D+15Maine Senate District 32: No Republican running: counted Democrat3133342232
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 32 is safe Democratic. Of its 4 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 2 favour Republicans.

StatusNo Republican running: counted Democrat
CandidatesHenry Ingwersen (D), Jason Litalien (independent)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberHenry Ingwersen

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022D+15
Governor 2022D+16
Legislature 2024D+17
President 2024D+10
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMaine
Median household income$74,436$71,773
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)28%35%
Median age4145
White (not Hispanic)94%91%
Black1%2%
Hispanic2%2%
Asian1%1%
Born abroad3%4%
Jobs in manufacturing11%9%
Jobs in farming or mining0%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.