Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Georgia House

Georgia House District 33

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Alan Powell (R)

Georgia House District 33: Decided: only a Republican is runningGeorgia House 120: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+13Georgia House 123: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+41Georgia House 32: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+69South Carolina House 1: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+60South Carolina House 11: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+49South Carolina House 2: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+45South Carolina House 8: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+42Georgia House District 33: Decided: only a Republican is runningSC 8120SC 232SC 1SC 1112333
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 33 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 7 favour Republicans. 4 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesAlan Powell (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberAlan Powell

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+65
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtGeorgia
Median household income$55,605$74,664
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)17%34%
Median age4337
White (not Hispanic)80%50%
Black11%31%
Hispanic4%11%
Asian1%4%
Born abroad3%11%
Jobs in manufacturing18%10%
Jobs in farming or mining4%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.