Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Georgia House

Georgia House District 170

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Jaclyn Dixon Ford (R)

Georgia House District 170: Decided: only a Republican is runningGeorgia House 152: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+40Georgia House 169: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+47Georgia House 172: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+49Georgia House 175: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+34Georgia House 176: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+48Georgia House District 170: Decided: only a Republican is running175172176152169170
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 170 is safe Republican. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 5 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesJaclyn Dixon Ford (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberJaclyn Ford

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+45
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtGeorgia
Median household income$52,109$74,664
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)18%34%
Median age3837
White (not Hispanic)62%50%
Black23%31%
Hispanic10%11%
Asian1%4%
Born abroad4%11%
Jobs in manufacturing14%10%
Jobs in farming or mining4%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.