Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Georgia House

Georgia House District 156

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Leesa Hagan (R)

Georgia House District 156: Decided: only a Republican is runningGeorgia House 133: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+38Georgia House 148: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+36Georgia House 155: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+35Georgia House 157: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+55Georgia House 158: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+35Georgia House 169: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+47Georgia House District 156: Decided: only a Republican is running155148169157158133156
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 156 is safe Republican. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesLeesa Hagan (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberLeesa Hagan

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+47
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtGeorgia
Median household income$47,524$74,664
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)16%34%
Median age3837
White (not Hispanic)58%50%
Black29%31%
Hispanic9%11%
Asian1%4%
Born abroad4%11%
Jobs in manufacturing13%10%
Jobs in farming or mining6%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.