Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Delaware House

Delaware House District 26

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Madinah Wilson-Anton (D)

Delaware House District 26: Decided: only a Democrat is runningDelaware House 15: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+35Delaware House 18: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+41Delaware House 24: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+27Delaware House 25: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+32Delaware House 27: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+17Delaware House 5: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+58Delaware House District 26: Decided: only a Democrat is running5241825152726
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 26 is safe Democratic. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesMadinah Wilson-Anton (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberMadinah Wilson-Anton

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022D+41
Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+43
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtDelaware
Median household income$93,504$82,855
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)38%35%
Median age3642
White (not Hispanic)39%59%
Black27%21%
Hispanic17%11%
Asian13%4%
Born abroad25%10%
Jobs in manufacturing7%7%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.