Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Alaska House

Alaska House District 27

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · David Eastman (R), Jubilee L. Underwood (R)

Alaska House District 27: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanAlaska House 26: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+56Alaska House 28: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+50Alaska House 29: chance of a Democratic win 6%; 2024 president R+46Alaska House 30: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+46Alaska House District 27: No Democrat running: counted Republican293027
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 27 is safe Republican. Of its 4 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Republicans.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesDavid Eastman (R), Jubilee L. Underwood (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberJubilee Underwood

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Governor 2022R+70
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+58
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtAlaska
Median household income$77,272$89,336
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)18%31%
Median age3636
White (not Hispanic)77%58%
Black1%3%
Hispanic4%7%
Asian3%6%
Born abroad4%8%
Jobs in manufacturing3%4%
Jobs in farming or mining5%5%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.