Get the briefing by email: when the forecast moves and weekly through Election Day, then how our forecast did. See one

Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Oklahoma GovernorOct 8–13, 2026Workbench Strategy
for Munson's campaign
partisan sponsor
600 LVMazzei 49 (R) · Munson 45 (D)R+4Not checked yet release
OK-5Sep 17–20, 2026GBAOpartisan sponsor500 LVBice 48 (R) · Nelson 43 (D)R+5Citation unreadable release
Oklahoma SenateAug 3–6, 2026CHS & Associates250 RVHern 49 (R) · Thomas 25 (D)R+24Checked release

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Oklahoma Governor1Oct 13, 2026R+4 (1)R+5Oklahoma Governor forecast
Oklahoma Senate1Aug 6, 2026R+24 (1)R+26Oklahoma Senate forecast
OK-51Sep 20, 2026R+5 (1)—OK-5 forecast