Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana Senate | Oct 22–23, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | 410 LV | Bodnar 39 (I) · Alme 38 (R) · Bankhead 10 (D) · Austin 2 (L) | Bodnar+1 | Checked release |
| Montana Senate | Oct 5–21, 2026 | Montana State University Billings | 720 A | Alme 30 (R) · Bodnar 26 (I) · Bankhead 21 (D) · Austin 3 (L) | Alme+4 | Checked release |
| MT-2 | Oct 5–21, 2026 | Montana State University Billings | — | Downing 29 (R) · Miller 18 (D) · Eisenhauer 15 (I) | R+11 | No citation |
| MT-1 | Oct 5–21, 2026 | Montana State University Billings | — | Forstag 49 (D) · Flint 32 (R) · Sheedy 4 (L) | D+17 | Not checked yet release |
| Montana Senate | Oct 15–18, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 667 LV | Alme 44 (R) · Bodnar 28 (I) · Bankhead 21 (D) · Austin 2 (L) | Alme+16 | Citation unreadable release |
| MT-1 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 329 LV | Forstag 50 (D) · Flint 46 (R) · Sheedy 4 (L) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| MT-1 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 541 LV | Forstag 48 (D) · Flint 45 (R) | D+3 | Not checked yet release |
| Montana Senate | Oct 7–12, 2026 | Peak Insights for Alme's campaign partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Alme 44 (R) · Bodnar 29 (I) · Bankhead 12 (D) · Austin 3 (L) | Alme+15 | No citation |
| Montana Senate | Oct 6–8, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar's campaign partisan sponsor | 405 LV | Bodnar 37 (I) · Alme 35 (R) · Bankhead 13 (D) · Austin 1 (L) | Bodnar+2 | Release found release |
| Montana Senate | Sep 19–24, 2026 | American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR-TV | 604 LV | Alme 45 (R) · Bodnar 26 (I) · Bankhead 19 (D) · Austin 3 (L) | Alme+19 | Release found release |
| MT-1 | Sep 19–24, 2026 | American Pulse Research & Polling | 314 LV | Flint 46 (R) · Forstag 45 (D) · Sheedy 5 (L) | R+1 | Checked release |
| MT-1 | Sep 20–23, 2026 | Impact Research for Forstag's campaign partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Forstag 47 (D) · Flint 44 (R) · Sheedy 2 (L) | D+3 | Not checked yet release |
| Montana Senate | Sep 14–15, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 625 LV | Alme 44 (R) · Bodnar 24 (I) · Bankhead 23 (D) | Alme+20 | Checked release |
| MT-1 | Sep 9–10, 2026 | Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor | 536 RV | Forstag 45 (D) · Flint 43 (R) | D+2 | No citation |
| Montana Senate | Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026 | Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 845 RV | Alme 38 (R) · Bodnar 30 (I) · Bankhead 16 (D) · Austin 5 (L) | Alme+8 | Checked release |
| MT-2 | Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026 | Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 470 RV | Downing 48 (R) · Miller 26 (D) · Eisenhauer 9 (I) | R+22 | Release found release |
| MT-1 | Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026 | Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 375 RV | Flint 42 (R) · Forstag 41 (D) · Sheedy 5 (L) | R+1 | Checked release |
| Montana Senate | Aug 23–25, 2026 | Peak Insights for Kurt Alme campaign campaign internal | 600 LV | Alme 44 (R) · Bodnar 22 (I) · Bankhead 19 (D) · Austin 2 (L) | Alme+22 | Release found release |
| Montana Senate | Aug 1–4, 2026 | Hart Research for Forward Montana partisan sponsor | 800 LV | Alme 45 (R) · Bodnar 30 (I) · Bankhead 15 (D) · Austin 6 (L) | Alme+15 | Checked release |
| Montana Senate | Jul 23–26, 2026 | GQR Research for Contours Inc. partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Alme 41 (R) · Bodnar 27 (I) · Bankhead 22 (D) · Austin 6 (L) | Alme+14 | Checked release |
| Montana Senate | Jul 13–16, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center | 793 LV | Alme 36 (R) · Bodnar 24 (I) · Bankhead 22 (D) | Alme+12 | Checked |
| MT-1 | Jun 22–25, 2026 | Impact Researchpartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Flint 44 (R) · Forstag 44 (D) · Sheedy 5 (L) | Even | No citation |
| Montana Senate | Jun 18–24, 2026 | Hart Research for Forward Montana | 800 LV | Alme 47 (R) · Bodnar 25 (I) · Bankhead 22 (D) | Alme+22 | Checked release |
| Montana Senate | Jun 8–11, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies for The Political Company partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Alme 44 (R) · Bankhead 25 (D) · Bodnar 20 (I) · Austin 4 (L) | R+19 | Release found release |
| MT-1 | Apr 30–May 5, 2026 | Upswing Researchpartisan sponsor | 401 LV | Flint 48 (R) · Forstag 43 (D) | R+5 | No citation |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana Senate | 14 | Oct 23, 2026 | R+8 (6) | R+13 | Montana Senate forecast |
| MT-1 | 9 | Oct 21, 2026 | D+5 (5) | — | MT-1 forecast |
| MT-2 | 2 | Oct 21, 2026 | R+11 (1) | — | MT-2 forecast |