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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Montana SenateOct 22–23, 2026Concord Public Opinion Partners410 LVBodnar 39 (I) · Alme 38 (R) · Bankhead 10 (D) · Austin 2 (L)Bodnar+1Checked release
Montana SenateOct 5–21, 2026Montana State University Billings720 AAlme 30 (R) · Bodnar 26 (I) · Bankhead 21 (D) · Austin 3 (L)Alme+4Checked release
MT-2Oct 5–21, 2026Montana State University Billings— Downing 29 (R) · Miller 18 (D) · Eisenhauer 15 (I)R+11No citation
MT-1Oct 5–21, 2026Montana State University Billings— Forstag 49 (D) · Flint 32 (R) · Sheedy 4 (L)D+17Not checked yet release
Montana SenateOct 15–18, 2026Quantus Insights667 LVAlme 44 (R) · Bodnar 28 (I) · Bankhead 21 (D) · Austin 2 (L)Alme+16Citation unreadable release
MT-1Oct 12–14, 2026Emerson College
for Poll Vault
329 LVForstag 50 (D) · Flint 46 (R) · Sheedy 4 (L)D+4Not checked yet release
MT-1Oct 12–14, 2026Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
541 LVForstag 48 (D) · Flint 45 (R)D+3Not checked yet release
Montana SenateOct 7–12, 2026Peak Insights
for Alme's campaign
partisan sponsor
500 LVAlme 44 (R) · Bodnar 29 (I) · Bankhead 12 (D) · Austin 3 (L)Alme+15No citation
Montana SenateOct 6–8, 2026Concord Public Opinion Partners
for Bodnar's campaign
partisan sponsor
405 LVBodnar 37 (I) · Alme 35 (R) · Bankhead 13 (D) · Austin 1 (L)Bodnar+2Release found release
Montana SenateSep 19–24, 2026American Pulse Research & Polling
for KULR-TV
604 LVAlme 45 (R) · Bodnar 26 (I) · Bankhead 19 (D) · Austin 3 (L)Alme+19Release found release
MT-1Sep 19–24, 2026American Pulse Research & Polling314 LVFlint 46 (R) · Forstag 45 (D) · Sheedy 5 (L)R+1Checked release
MT-1Sep 20–23, 2026Impact Research
for Forstag's campaign
partisan sponsor
500 LVForstag 47 (D) · Flint 44 (R) · Sheedy 2 (L)D+3Not checked yet release
Montana SenateSep 14–15, 2026Quantus Insights625 LVAlme 44 (R) · Bodnar 24 (I) · Bankhead 23 (D)Alme+20Checked release
MT-1Sep 9–10, 2026Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor536 RVForstag 45 (D) · Flint 43 (R)D+2No citation
Montana SenateAug 27–Sep 7, 2026Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics845 RVAlme 38 (R) · Bodnar 30 (I) · Bankhead 16 (D) · Austin 5 (L)Alme+8Checked release
MT-2Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics470 RVDowning 48 (R) · Miller 26 (D) · Eisenhauer 9 (I)R+22Release found release
MT-1Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics375 RVFlint 42 (R) · Forstag 41 (D) · Sheedy 5 (L)R+1Checked release
Montana SenateAug 23–25, 2026Peak Insights
for Kurt Alme campaign
campaign internal
600 LVAlme 44 (R) · Bodnar 22 (I) · Bankhead 19 (D) · Austin 2 (L)Alme+22Release found release
Montana SenateAug 1–4, 2026Hart Research
for Forward Montana
partisan sponsor
800 LVAlme 45 (R) · Bodnar 30 (I) · Bankhead 15 (D) · Austin 6 (L)Alme+15Checked release
Montana SenateJul 23–26, 2026GQR Research
for Contours Inc.
partisan sponsor
500 LVAlme 41 (R) · Bodnar 27 (I) · Bankhead 22 (D) · Austin 6 (L)Alme+14Checked release
Montana SenateJul 13–16, 2026The Bullfinch Group
for Independent Center
793 LVAlme 36 (R) · Bodnar 24 (I) · Bankhead 22 (D)Alme+12Checked
MT-1Jun 22–25, 2026Impact Researchpartisan sponsor500 LVFlint 44 (R) · Forstag 44 (D) · Sheedy 5 (L)EvenNo citation
Montana SenateJun 18–24, 2026Hart Research
for Forward Montana
800 LVAlme 47 (R) · Bodnar 25 (I) · Bankhead 22 (D)Alme+22Checked release
Montana SenateJun 8–11, 2026Public Opinion Strategies
for The Political Company
partisan sponsor
500 LVAlme 44 (R) · Bankhead 25 (D) · Bodnar 20 (I) · Austin 4 (L)R+19Release found release
MT-1Apr 30–May 5, 2026Upswing Researchpartisan sponsor401 LVFlint 48 (R) · Forstag 43 (D)R+5No citation

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Montana Senate14Oct 23, 2026R+8 (6)R+13Montana Senate forecast
MT-19Oct 21, 2026D+5 (5)—MT-1 forecast
MT-22Oct 21, 2026R+11 (1)—MT-2 forecast