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"c6c2538f-e853-45d5-8adc-6425fa7c9596", "as_of": "2026-10-07 00:18:30.250705-07:00", "model": "house_district_prior/0.4.2", "subject": "Tim Kennedy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": "34.006257018031", "margin_q05": "19.7987584107011", "margin_q95": "48.3028722067344", "win_prob_subject": 0.9999 }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "c6c2538f-e853-45d5-8adc-6425fa7c9596", "as_of": "2026-10-07 00:18:30.250705-07:00", "model": "house_district_prior/0.4.2", "subject": "Jim Himes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": "32.5172251945846", "margin_q05": "18.28716174667", "margin_q95": "46.649766671625", "win_prob_subject": 0.9998 } ], "chambers": [ { "chamber": "governors", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "f3555e86-6551-48e3-aef7-e5a4db1ffa45", "as_of": "2026-10-07 03:57:18-07:00", "model": "governor_chamber/0.4.0", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.3133, "democratic_high": 0.31374, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.313 and 0.314, depending on 1 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 1 }, "mean_seats": 24.07228, "quantiles": { "0.1": 20.0, "0.5": 24.0, "0.9": 28.0, "0.05": 19.0, "0.25": 22.0, "0.75": 26.0, "0.95": 29.0 } }, { "chamber": "governors", "kind": "nowcast", "run_id": "f1dd700e-af97-4b12-a0bc-e66970755e76", "as_of": "2026-10-07 03:57:18-07:00", "model": "governor_chamber/0.4.0", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.24992, "republican": 0.75008, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 23.47348, "quantiles": { "0.1": 20.0, "0.5": 23.0, "0.9": 28.0, "0.05": 18.0, "0.25": 21.0, "0.75": 25.0, "0.95": 29.0 } }, { "chamber": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "8431e3e6-e56f-4b3b-b154-2b57a19db435", "as_of": "2026-10-07 00:18:30.231404-07:00", "model": "house_ground_up/2.2.2", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.95375, "republican": 0.04625000000000001, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 240.51555, "quantiles": { "0.1": 223.0, "0.5": 240.0, "0.9": 260.0, "0.05": 218.0, "0.25": 230.0, "0.75": 250.0, "0.95": 266.0 } }, { "chamber": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "ca3829b0-fbc1-4524-836e-67dc4e3c141b", "as_of": "2026-10-06 12:10:37.638976-07:00", "model": "senate_chamber/0.4.1", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.4014, "democratic_high": 0.48206, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.401 and 0.482, depending on 4 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 4 }, "mean_seats": 49.80668, "quantiles": { "0.1": 46.0, "0.5": 50.0, "0.9": 53.0, "0.05": 45.0, "0.25": 48.0, "0.75": 52.0, "0.95": 54.0 } }, { "chamber": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "run_id": "423ae45a-2ce3-40ed-987d-4413839433b7", "as_of": "2026-10-06 12:10:37.638976-07:00", "model": "senate_chamber/0.4.1", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.40716, "democratic_high": 0.46898, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.407 and 0.469, depending on 4 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 4 }, "mean_seats": 49.62182, "quantiles": { "0.1": 45.0, "0.5": 50.0, "0.9": 54.0, "0.05": 44.0, "0.25": 47.0, "0.75": 52.0, "0.95": 55.0 } } ] }