{ "schema_version": "2.0", "generated_at": "2026-10-22T04:45:44Z", "cycle": 2026, "source": "https://futureballot.com/data", "fields": { "geo_id": "state (US-XX) or district (US-XX-N)", "office": "senate | governor | house", "kind": "election_day: the forecast of the result; nowcast: if the election were held today", "subject": "the candidate the probability and margin refer to (candidate A)", "subject_party": "that candidate's party code", "opponent": "the main opponent (candidate B): the other candidacy with the largest chance", "opponent_party": "that candidate's party code", "win_prob_subject": "chance the subject wins, 0-1, unrounded simulation share: a 0 or 1 means no simulated draw went the other way, not certainty", "expected_margin": "expected margin, subject minus main opponent, percentage points", "margin_q05": "5th percentile of that margin", "margin_q95": "95th percentile", "as_of": "when the forecast was made (UTC)", "model": "model family/version", "run_id": "the forecast run", "race_id": "the race", "page": "the race's page", "note": "present when the row differs from the usual meaning" }, "coverage": { "rows": { "house": { "election_day": 418 }, "senate": { "election_day": 35, "nowcast": 29 }, "governor": { "election_day": 36, "nowcast": 33 } }, "withheld": [], "notes": [ "House: election-day forecasts only. The House model forecasts the result in November; no 'if held today' House forecast is published.", "House: a district whose contest is not one Democrat against one Republican has a row only where the model forecasts it some other way: Louisiana's all-party seats (a row giving which party wins the seat, with a `note`), and a contest with an independent or a same-party pairing forecast for its one `subject` candidate (`subject` names the candidate the probability is for). Any other such district has no row and is listed under `withheld`. Uncontested seats are counted in the House total but have no row.", "Senate and governor: a race with no polls is forecast from fundamentals alone for election day and has no nowcast row ('if held today' needs polls)." ] }, "races": [ { "geo_id": "US-TX-22", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "006c2f59-235c-4a70-b5f5-2d550d7d354f", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Marquette Greene-Scott", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.8365973392713, "margin_q05": -27.7751199105114, "margin_q95": -5.75333412520484, "win_prob_subject": 0.0124, "opponent": "Trever Nehls", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/006c2f59-235c-4a70-b5f5-2d550d7d354f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "017a1644-d95d-4df3-bd58-1ca45f9cec34", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Valerie Foushee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 51.9884791997871, "margin_q05": 41.2269337783288, "margin_q95": 62.6626783592214, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "opponent": "Max Ganorkar", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/017a1644-d95d-4df3-bd58-1ca45f9cec34" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "01f32459-0ef3-421b-a6fa-61defb8b3df0", "run_id": "f847ee0f-056a-4784-963a-53890d0b1eea", "as_of": "2026-10-22T03:36:44Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.3", "subject": "Jeff Merkley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 26.504711369854, "margin_q05": 4.91148439028356, "margin_q95": 48.0979383494245, "win_prob_subject": 0.9782555367115437, "opponent": "David Brock Smith", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/01f32459-0ef3-421b-a6fa-61defb8b3df0" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370", "run_id": "951cb67f-b05f-4ec9-a057-f53b2c570f48", "as_of": "2026-10-21T08:52:55Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.3", "subject": "Mark Warner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.3345867154188, "margin_q05": 3.3321086042839, "margin_q95": 37.4685132718993, "win_prob_subject": 0.9751398146022906, "opponent": "Bert Mizusawa", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370", "run_id": "ae01c647-7d15-4f64-aa49-e48094359583", "as_of": "2026-10-21T08:52:55Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.3", "subject": "Mark Warner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.8343934856098, "margin_q05": 4.5251219355814, "margin_q95": 37.2263450773957, "win_prob_subject": 0.9816337803488391, "opponent": "Bert Mizusawa", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "05af4cc4-f92f-4779-bc41-e8dd810964b4", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Joshua Kolasinski", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -32.3767605067989, "margin_q05": -43.5075954730397, "margin_q95": -21.42256160164, "win_prob_subject": 0.00105, "opponent": "Jim Jordan", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/05af4cc4-f92f-4779-bc41-e8dd810964b4" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "05d80483-7ebe-44f7-a3de-cfe5b0a58d73", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.6854556354178, "margin_q05": -11.3082151048432, "margin_q95": 9.77666781625566, "win_prob_subject": 0.45415, "opponent": "John Braun", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/05d80483-7ebe-44f7-a3de-cfe5b0a58d73" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "06161b66-5b59-4d99-a6b2-977f4f02cd91", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "LaKesha Womack", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.81595419935275, "margin_q05": -20.8960119872273, "margin_q95": 1.10638655933733, "win_prob_subject": 0.06625, "opponent": "Tim Moore", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/06161b66-5b59-4d99-a6b2-977f4f02cd91" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0645b154-0a3a-4242-afa4-407671b4e1fd", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": 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"opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/07d89165-e449-4bf0-a816-2bda2c34ed07" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "081f5efc-439c-4f8b-8329-9962f5bb8051", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Don Davis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 5.55868436673846, "margin_q05": -5.46495476659102, "margin_q95": 16.5769291378043, "win_prob_subject": 0.8126, "opponent": "Laurie Buckhout", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/081f5efc-439c-4f8b-8329-9962f5bb8051" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0820c9f4-d3d2-403f-85a0-1cc96551dbe9", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Brian Poindexter", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.2052784046419, 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"opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fad99887-3146-466b-95aa-202656360277" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-42", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fafbb75c-d885-4683-98c7-775cca1e6e92", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Robert Garcia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.3853740326154, "margin_q05": 11.3792222686623, "margin_q95": 33.4093612394125, "win_prob_subject": 0.9956, "opponent": "Brian Burley", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fafbb75c-d885-4683-98c7-775cca1e6e92" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fb9d5bd7-89cc-4591-aae3-9eb4f0907b70", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "John Garamendi", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 42.2498433246495, "margin_q05": 31.2965821462763, "margin_q95": 53.1180178380094, "win_prob_subject": 0.99975, "opponent": "Rudy Recile", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fb9d5bd7-89cc-4591-aae3-9eb4f0907b70" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-18", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fbfefc47-16fb-4dcb-81b1-4df2698af44b", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Christian Menefee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 55.7014867751018, "margin_q05": 44.8548539901873, "margin_q95": 66.5696008184259, "win_prob_subject": 0.9998, "opponent": "Ronald Whitfield", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fbfefc47-16fb-4dcb-81b1-4df2698af44b" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fc3736aa-9d00-4c75-b73d-f54406ead8d8", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Kristen McDonald Rivet", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 14.4164698176173, "margin_q05": 3.92243405663596, "margin_q95": 24.9590891546876, "win_prob_subject": 0.9828, "opponent": "Thomas J. Smith", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fc3736aa-9d00-4c75-b73d-f54406ead8d8" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fc42b8c8-15f5-4053-99f5-02da06459e38", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Michael DeCillis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -20.1710051217993, "margin_q05": -30.7874319949623, "margin_q95": -9.50762033308633, "win_prob_subject": 0.0054, "opponent": "Nicole Malliotakis", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fc42b8c8-15f5-4053-99f5-02da06459e38" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fd046b9a-aeb6-4c7e-8244-82bc95fd03e6", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Kim Schrier", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 18.7275798853986, "margin_q05": 8.28636060574282, "margin_q95": 29.1874170943095, "win_prob_subject": 0.99395, "opponent": "Spencer Meline", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fd046b9a-aeb6-4c7e-8244-82bc95fd03e6" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fd175906-a3f9-446e-8eab-6d91134dd3bc", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Bernadette Greene-Placentia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.5304551340183, "margin_q05": -23.0926012776964, "margin_q95": -1.96236545359867, "win_prob_subject": 0.0282, "opponent": "Abraham Hamadeh", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fd175906-a3f9-446e-8eab-6d91134dd3bc" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-26", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ffcffb8a-c43b-4ada-afbb-0e1e785b076b", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Tim Kennedy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 34.1204369369921, "margin_q05": 23.8512242946559, "margin_q95": 44.4123415080311, "win_prob_subject": 0.9997, "opponent": "Dennis Hannon", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/ffcffb8a-c43b-4ada-afbb-0e1e785b076b" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fff50c15-1183-412d-99b7-42f96eccb69a", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Jim Himes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 32.8153486832342, "margin_q05": 22.2438592142357, "margin_q95": 43.381708942905, "win_prob_subject": 0.99965, "opponent": "Michael Goldstein", "opponent_party": "R", "page": "https://futureballot.com/districts/fff50c15-1183-412d-99b7-42f96eccb69a" }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -34.9917, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0008, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -27.3099, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0013, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.4095, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0023, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -26.862, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0019, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.7.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.3006, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0454, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null } ], "chambers": [ { "chamber": "governors", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "bfe98146-a618-4966-bf45-ead7a79b1c61", "as_of": "2026-10-22T03:20:57Z", "model": "governor_chamber/0.4.1", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.68922, "republican": 0.31077999999999995, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 26.85102, "quantiles": { "0.1": 23.0, "0.5": 27.0, "0.9": 30.0, "0.05": 22.0, "0.25": 25.0, "0.75": 29.0, "0.95": 32.0 } }, { "chamber": "governors", "kind": "nowcast", "run_id": "c8762312-c6c3-4c68-ada3-c7f19f859d89", "as_of": "2026-10-22T03:20:57Z", "model": "governor_chamber/0.4.1", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.67068, "republican": 0.32931999999999995, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 26.7939, "quantiles": { "0.1": 23.0, "0.5": 27.0, "0.9": 31.0, "0.05": 22.0, "0.25": 25.0, "0.75": 29.0, "0.95": 32.0 } }, { "chamber": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "0376e329-664e-4023-b555-eb9a9e3cd129", "as_of": "2026-10-22T04:20:59Z", "model": "house_ground_up/2.6.0", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.8031, "republican": 0.19689999999999996, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 230.514, "quantiles": { "0.1": 212.0, "0.5": 230.0, "0.9": 250.0, "0.05": 209.0, "0.25": 220.0, "0.75": 240.0, "0.95": 256.0 } }, { "chamber": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "e6b573a4-d144-46d9-8f15-ff2bcc1eb6d2", "as_of": "2026-10-22T03:20:57Z", "model": "senate_chamber/0.4.2", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.52964, "democratic_high": 0.6129, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.530 and 0.613, depending on 4 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 4 }, "mean_seats": 50.6431, "quantiles": { "0.1": 47.0, "0.5": 51.0, "0.9": 54.0, "0.05": 46.0, "0.25": 49.0, "0.75": 52.0, "0.95": 55.0 } }, { "chamber": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "run_id": "9f18c89f-2069-4a5b-bf86-9023c63ebdd9", "as_of": "2026-10-22T03:20:57Z", "model": "senate_chamber/0.4.2", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.60566, "democratic_high": 0.66174, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.606 and 0.662, depending on 4 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 4 }, "mean_seats": 51.12082, "quantiles": { "0.1": 47.0, "0.5": 51.0, "0.9": 55.0, "0.05": 46.0, "0.25": 49.0, "0.75": 53.0, "0.95": 56.0 } } ] }