{ "schema_version": "2.0", "generated_at": "2026-10-11T06:30:47Z", "cycle": 2026, "source": "https://futureballot.com/data", "fields": { "geo_id": "state (US-XX) or district (US-XX-N)", "office": "senate | governor | house", "kind": "election_day: the forecast of the result; nowcast: if the election were held today", "subject": "the candidate the probability and margin refer to (candidate A)", "subject_party": "that candidate's party code", "win_prob_subject": "chance the subject wins, 0-1, unrounded simulation share: a 0 or 1 means no simulated draw went the other way, not certainty", "expected_margin": "expected margin, subject minus main opponent, percentage points", "margin_q05": "5th percentile of that margin", "margin_q95": "95th percentile", "as_of": "when the forecast was made (UTC)", "model": "model family/version", "run_id": "the forecast run", "race_id": "the race", "page": "the race's page", "note": "present when the row differs from the usual meaning" }, "coverage": { "rows": { "house": { "election_day": 418 }, "senate": { "election_day": 35, "nowcast": 29 }, "governor": { "election_day": 36, "nowcast": 31 } }, "withheld": [], "notes": [ "House: election-day forecasts only. The House model forecasts the result in November; no 'if held today' House forecast is published.", "House: districts with no single Democrat-against-Republican contest have no row and are listed under `withheld`, except Louisiana's all-party seats, which have a row giving which party wins the seat (with a `note`) and are not listed as withheld. Uncontested seats are counted in the House total but have no row.", "Senate and governor: a race with no polls is forecast from fundamentals alone for election day and has no nowcast row ('if held today' needs polls)." ] }, "races": [ { "geo_id": "US-TX-22", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "006c2f59-235c-4a70-b5f5-2d550d7d354f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Marquette Greene-Scott", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.6674371884836, "margin_q05": -30.7716673858929, "margin_q95": -0.421371724678636, "win_prob_subject": 0.0449, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/006c2f59-235c-4a70-b5f5-2d550d7d354f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "017a1644-d95d-4df3-bd58-1ca45f9cec34", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Valerie Foushee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 53.1542173937328, "margin_q05": 38.252800913667, "margin_q95": 68.0879870945585, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/017a1644-d95d-4df3-bd58-1ca45f9cec34" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "01f32459-0ef3-421b-a6fa-61defb8b3df0", "run_id": "ba474f0b-a2cc-4b14-96b3-502c2ccae06a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jeff Merkley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 27.327291932812, "margin_q05": 5.71938028508901, "margin_q95": 48.9352035805349, "win_prob_subject": 0.9812477137578729, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/01f32459-0ef3-421b-a6fa-61defb8b3df0" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370", "run_id": "e7e18438-97f9-4b47-88ec-3f2b19fa2192", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Mark Warner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.1525444199815, "margin_q05": 1.2982935829964, "margin_q95": 37.1340814056714, "win_prob_subject": 0.960777247373721, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370", "run_id": "dc8bdc43-c905-4ac5-9bdb-a481186cde68", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Mark Warner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 18.8437881598254, "margin_q05": 1.95499356314092, "margin_q95": 35.7810535411621, "win_prob_subject": 0.96676, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/04ca2385-4dcb-44e2-aa10-e30a22c26370" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "05af4cc4-f92f-4779-bc41-e8dd810964b4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joshua Kolasinski", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -31.0533640877877, "margin_q05": -46.279396220659, "margin_q95": -15.9541157347018, "win_prob_subject": 0.0005, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/05af4cc4-f92f-4779-bc41-e8dd810964b4" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "05d80483-7ebe-44f7-a3de-cfe5b0a58d73", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -1.82262627255657, "margin_q05": -16.0340755405381, "margin_q95": 12.3994515554914, "win_prob_subject": 0.4148, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/05d80483-7ebe-44f7-a3de-cfe5b0a58d73" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "06161b66-5b59-4d99-a6b2-977f4f02cd91", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "LaKesha Womack", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.89975764219717, "margin_q05": -23.7839057484817, "margin_q95": 6.05678923533189, "win_prob_subject": 0.1614, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/06161b66-5b59-4d99-a6b2-977f4f02cd91" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0645b154-0a3a-4242-afa4-407671b4e1fd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jena Nelson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.85347916833648, "margin_q05": -24.221530139321, "margin_q95": 4.46688711478397, "win_prob_subject": 0.1297, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0645b154-0a3a-4242-afa4-407671b4e1fd" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "067e50a5-f3ac-4334-baa2-4f4553585af8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Erik Osberg", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -30.2591633103169, "margin_q05": -44.4497269568613, "margin_q95": -16.1944590777853, "win_prob_subject": 0.0001, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/067e50a5-f3ac-4334-baa2-4f4553585af8" }, { "geo_id": "US-MT", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "06c4af54-5094-4119-a7b3-cba4cfb28907", "run_id": "f5388630-7941-4fe7-bc3a-be8f045a0090", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Seth Bodnar", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -20.0669765101966, "margin_q05": -31.4190373953767, "margin_q95": -8.54930271589055, "win_prob_subject": 0.00766, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/06c4af54-5094-4119-a7b3-cba4cfb28907" }, { "geo_id": "US-MT", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "06c4af54-5094-4119-a7b3-cba4cfb28907", "run_id": "ef1a62f4-1e23-46c5-ae84-5797a3b970f7", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Seth Bodnar", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -20.0697671923411, "margin_q05": -29.9390284147328, "margin_q95": -10.0774619477011, "win_prob_subject": 0.00394, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/06c4af54-5094-4119-a7b3-cba4cfb28907" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-20", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "06eac1cd-4ae9-4442-a211-5f4c101f07df", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sandra Van Scotter", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.9566087717071, "margin_q05": -39.0243909973724, "margin_q95": -8.80397043729782, "win_prob_subject": 0.0056, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/06eac1cd-4ae9-4442-a211-5f4c101f07df" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "07d89165-e449-4bf0-a816-2bda2c34ed07", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Andrew Sneed", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -21.0374586227263, "margin_q05": -35.8889751994191, "margin_q95": -5.98455211500564, "win_prob_subject": 0.0118, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/07d89165-e449-4bf0-a816-2bda2c34ed07" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "081f5efc-439c-4f8b-8329-9962f5bb8051", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Don Davis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.50940023755957, "margin_q05": -8.75679990890911, "margin_q95": 21.5195936310578, "win_prob_subject": 0.76375, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/081f5efc-439c-4f8b-8329-9962f5bb8051" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0820c9f4-d3d2-403f-85a0-1cc96551dbe9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brian Poindexter", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.8110057884007, "margin_q05": -11.4209949301492, "margin_q95": 19.0809664203988, "win_prob_subject": 0.66145, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0820c9f4-d3d2-403f-85a0-1cc96551dbe9" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "087ee779-2647-42da-ad77-7027ca24fd89", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brandon Wade", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -42.8170390784007, "margin_q05": -57.0123378262565, "margin_q95": -28.509721841752, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/087ee779-2647-42da-ad77-7027ca24fd89" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "08b91664-2da8-406b-ab3d-86b0afe397dd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Alma Adams", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 55.4584894622572, "margin_q05": 40.5102977408154, "margin_q95": 70.4160596407107, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/08b91664-2da8-406b-ab3d-86b0afe397dd" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0a6c00e1-6e0f-4a82-b932-8cdc9ac6169b", "run_id": "137ccfc9-060d-4b0e-beee-9272e9691a07", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jerri Green", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.6496878698881, "margin_q05": -31.022400124386, "margin_q95": -5.82977649280714, "win_prob_subject": 0.01345907453727091, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0a6c00e1-6e0f-4a82-b932-8cdc9ac6169b" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "0a6c00e1-6e0f-4a82-b932-8cdc9ac6169b", "run_id": "7a12bda3-f8ae-4958-883e-fe62c0ab55ed", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jerri Green", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.3713021211198, "margin_q05": -29.2697345270182, "margin_q95": -7.07595317777728, "win_prob_subject": 0.00838, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0a6c00e1-6e0f-4a82-b932-8cdc9ac6169b" }, { "geo_id": "US-ID-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0ad7197e-0101-4947-a8dd-527bf86af159", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ellie Gilbreath", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -20.6957107802889, "margin_q05": -34.7719666792506, "margin_q95": -6.47358366312622, "win_prob_subject": 0.0084, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0ad7197e-0101-4947-a8dd-527bf86af159" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0c4bcfdc-1a91-4d27-a59d-2731546572b2", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Greg Stanton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.3137555703608, "margin_q05": 5.83670369360709, "margin_q95": 34.5593943670803, "win_prob_subject": 0.98915, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0c4bcfdc-1a91-4d27-a59d-2731546572b2" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0c68b270-0b79-4f82-83d6-3ee1cf53033a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Richard Ojeda", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.72362552406972, "margin_q05": -21.7417921327781, "margin_q95": 8.32085278366361, "win_prob_subject": 0.23435, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0c68b270-0b79-4f82-83d6-3ee1cf53033a" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0ca948d6-695b-4c33-92d0-33e5b63529f5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lindsay James", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.0451536896289623, "margin_q05": -15.4364890922031, "margin_q95": 15.5927223052795, "win_prob_subject": 0.49995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0ca948d6-695b-4c33-92d0-33e5b63529f5" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-38", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0cd4476a-6308-4970-98dd-5c23885a1f2f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Melissa McDonough", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.4442986726532, "margin_q05": -29.4658150105484, "margin_q95": 0.593271610913472, "win_prob_subject": 0.057, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0cd4476a-6308-4970-98dd-5c23885a1f2f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0eb9ab8b-9581-4790-b691-6848a20ba2e2", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Gregory Meeks", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 49.3115233135538, "margin_q05": 35.0645306866777, "margin_q95": 63.5831123659496, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0eb9ab8b-9581-4790-b691-6848a20ba2e2" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "0ecacbe2-24e4-4a19-afcd-afebf7e49cfe", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "James Russell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -35.2452918194047, "margin_q05": -49.6126218379165, "margin_q95": -21.0459070465834, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/0ecacbe2-24e4-4a19-afcd-afebf7e49cfe" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "100b4592-465e-4267-838b-78da12e6ac11", "run_id": "195b9b05-429c-45c5-8752-3b9958be6c2d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Angie Nixon", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -7.76850918605173, "margin_q05": -18.3212308518128, "margin_q95": 2.97519907821504, "win_prob_subject": 0.10408628739546621, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/100b4592-465e-4267-838b-78da12e6ac11" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "100b4592-465e-4267-838b-78da12e6ac11", "run_id": "cb73e6fe-c90b-417f-837d-e882249c665f", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Angie Nixon", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.08322998104185, "margin_q05": -17.1556200922253, "margin_q95": 0.969196456260993, "win_prob_subject": 0.06664, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/100b4592-465e-4267-838b-78da12e6ac11" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "108975ea-3658-4b7e-b71f-2bcf7ac24c8c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ilhan Omar", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 66.492512160462, "margin_q05": 52.3053173574815, "margin_q95": 80.630084124939, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/108975ea-3658-4b7e-b71f-2bcf7ac24c8c" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-28", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "11144549-f48a-42d7-9895-05d0fa7e33e3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Henry Cuellar", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 4.36794137003569, "margin_q05": -10.6811359720441, "margin_q95": 19.5087071659267, "win_prob_subject": 0.68335, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/11144549-f48a-42d7-9895-05d0fa7e33e3" }, { "geo_id": "US-NV-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "119af031-dcd0-4187-b5bf-9c063f21b420", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Teresa Benitez-Thompson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.7480053254055, "margin_q05": -18.4423915020144, "margin_q95": 12.6666003039467, "win_prob_subject": 0.3875, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/119af031-dcd0-4187-b5bf-9c063f21b420" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "12118d2a-4560-4d21-b778-ead9acaae9ac", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jason Pearce", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.5942263012531, "margin_q05": -32.6153271245921, "margin_q95": -2.60134496255274, "win_prob_subject": 0.02715, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/12118d2a-4560-4d21-b778-ead9acaae9ac" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "123a7c05-552e-4eb0-a955-108f3653d31e", "run_id": "995c71fd-ecf8-4641-b5a7-611d4fc36029", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Gina Hinojosa", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.15018054838441, "margin_q05": -15.7171221090077, "margin_q95": 5.51717673672803, "win_prob_subject": 0.19070306668621473, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/123a7c05-552e-4eb0-a955-108f3653d31e" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "123a7c05-552e-4eb0-a955-108f3653d31e", "run_id": "43db8778-4bf6-4707-9eac-32781ba8db98", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Gina Hinojosa", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.54829342229891, "margin_q05": -13.4764769375371, "margin_q95": 4.37838004229651, "win_prob_subject": 0.18128, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/123a7c05-552e-4eb0-a955-108f3653d31e" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "126dc885-b1a6-4a57-9cfa-15a9063c4eb5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Stephen Lynch", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 40.7144190134005, "margin_q05": 26.5889064929733, "margin_q95": 54.8968215663727, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/126dc885-b1a6-4a57-9cfa-15a9063c4eb5" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1290bea3-b1dc-4794-888b-b27f7319df0c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Paul Barringer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.0470492384204, "margin_q05": -26.3005515507014, "margin_q95": 4.24157421676774, "win_prob_subject": 0.11415, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1290bea3-b1dc-4794-888b-b27f7319df0c" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "12adff4d-06b9-41b2-ad9b-b713e13ea92b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Claire Valdez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 60.098049191333, "margin_q05": 44.7660069336891, "margin_q95": 75.4911806324457, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/12adff4d-06b9-41b2-ad9b-b713e13ea92b" }, { "geo_id": "US-ND-AL", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "12d99cad-e05c-484b-8162-5ec9de9deb7d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Trygve Hammer", "subject_party": "DNL", "expected_margin": -30.5961236608835, "margin_q05": -44.8966306357116, "margin_q95": -16.1858901953547, "win_prob_subject": 0.00015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/12d99cad-e05c-484b-8162-5ec9de9deb7d" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "12f29ae9-e6fa-4a5c-98dc-c6f3b4a43322", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Daniel Biss", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.4115277317125, "margin_q05": 27.9881832632492, "margin_q95": 58.6802600813426, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/12f29ae9-e6fa-4a5c-98dc-c6f3b4a43322" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "142279f0-fe97-43a9-8cca-56b7d60f3682", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Benjamin Ambrose", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.7049223170242, "margin_q05": -38.9629691076417, "margin_q95": -10.4998171707094, "win_prob_subject": 0.0018, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/142279f0-fe97-43a9-8cca-56b7d60f3682" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "146dc63c-338f-4206-991f-a1a216e20cf3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "April McClain Delaney", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.8791321806763, "margin_q05": 6.69043286935496, "margin_q95": 35.0286883229199, "win_prob_subject": 0.9925, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/146dc63c-338f-4206-991f-a1a216e20cf3" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "149d669f-9da5-4add-870f-d8044eb5d338", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Terri Sewell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 33.7990353700979, "margin_q05": 18.801037637482, "margin_q95": 48.8783259315133, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/149d669f-9da5-4add-870f-d8044eb5d338" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-33", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1560fe80-d947-4170-96bc-1317ecaad898", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Pete Aguilar", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.2905868956837, "margin_q05": 8.27993027460186, "margin_q95": 38.5020236772865, "win_prob_subject": 0.9946, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1560fe80-d947-4170-96bc-1317ecaad898" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-24", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "15c8ac23-25b3-4331-a21d-4d360003bfc1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Oliver Gilbert", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 42.763336438385, "margin_q05": 27.4898706692683, "margin_q95": 57.7631010231943, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/15c8ac23-25b3-4331-a21d-4d360003bfc1" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "179c39da-f7c4-4da5-9aed-0a987721f147", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Elaine Luria", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 2.24930588968557, "margin_q05": -11.9655965542519, "margin_q95": 16.5958955275346, "win_prob_subject": 0.5975, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/179c39da-f7c4-4da5-9aed-0a987721f147" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "17cfb2b5-6ed3-4093-80d9-18386f00bbab", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "LaShonda Holloway", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.70685556399406, "margin_q05": -23.8855118847571, "margin_q95": 6.50094092592026, "win_prob_subject": 0.17135, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/17cfb2b5-6ed3-4093-80d9-18386f00bbab" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "19cae14b-bddd-4d6d-a2ab-57e5906b7661", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Christina Hines", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.162962772955552, "margin_q05": -15.0925266104238, "margin_q95": 15.4942553217453, "win_prob_subject": 0.50445, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/19cae14b-bddd-4d6d-a2ab-57e5906b7661" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1a40be78-6926-44e5-9384-ed77a2410e63", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Matt Little", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 10.9201879233661, "margin_q05": -4.56139243881329, "margin_q95": 26.3867504712029, "win_prob_subject": 0.8779, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1a40be78-6926-44e5-9384-ed77a2410e63" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1a562d95-455f-432f-bfff-469c92e9a21e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jennifer Jenkins", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.8096511067763, "margin_q05": -25.8374506401416, "margin_q95": 4.44083284514104, "win_prob_subject": 0.11845, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1a562d95-455f-432f-bfff-469c92e9a21e" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-51", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1ae6eda9-b845-4af0-be3b-a1c9c382585b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sara Jacobs", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.9127427588537, "margin_q05": 13.9704155303906, "margin_q95": 43.9585836903969, "win_prob_subject": 0.9988, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1ae6eda9-b845-4af0-be3b-a1c9c382585b" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-16", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1b9f9500-7d9b-4bfb-8ed2-6cce64b6a6ea", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sam Liccardo", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 52.6280730906299, "margin_q05": 37.7468613385956, "margin_q95": 67.7004052194845, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1b9f9500-7d9b-4bfb-8ed2-6cce64b6a6ea" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1bbe8f04-6a5a-488b-a730-058bab2f4e39", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Andrea Salinas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.4780217769944, "margin_q05": 7.4087727194488, "margin_q95": 35.6668420571463, "win_prob_subject": 0.9938, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1bbe8f04-6a5a-488b-a730-058bab2f4e39" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1c400333-d0e6-4c04-94b7-d63a3541f994", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Suhas Subramanyam", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.6141461920412, "margin_q05": 7.45436421320162, "margin_q95": 35.9166971654317, "win_prob_subject": 0.99425, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1c400333-d0e6-4c04-94b7-d63a3541f994" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-28", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1de94a4d-1f58-4d72-aeb0-73f931edfd3f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Judy Chu", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 35.4465009655542, "margin_q05": 20.3312998512823, "margin_q95": 50.498073789946, "win_prob_subject": 0.9999, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1de94a4d-1f58-4d72-aeb0-73f931edfd3f" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1e1ab1ea-9179-44af-b2a9-525685c98369", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Patty Garcia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 25.7253987619662, "margin_q05": 10.1952739349474, "margin_q95": 41.4334978535475, "win_prob_subject": 0.9967, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1e1ab1ea-9179-44af-b2a9-525685c98369" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1e3770ed-89af-4e63-80e9-fd92162290ad", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Maxine Dexter", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 52.3668194524636, "margin_q05": 38.4030873074999, "margin_q95": 66.5275307411485, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1e3770ed-89af-4e63-80e9-fd92162290ad" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1e3bedbf-a857-4165-9bdd-a00d4791827f", "run_id": "3bc06438-fcd6-4df4-918a-9eaef080af0b", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Deb Haaland", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 7.99752115690417, "margin_q05": -4.07365621823975, "margin_q95": 20.0219856001551, "win_prob_subject": 0.8729158539447368, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1e3bedbf-a857-4165-9bdd-a00d4791827f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "1e3bedbf-a857-4165-9bdd-a00d4791827f", "run_id": "d3c5d5b1-c21c-4e80-b77e-8be5c2c3d1c9", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Deb Haaland", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.78368740804112, "margin_q05": -3.89184372194795, "margin_q95": 17.4255152949225, "win_prob_subject": 0.86268, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1e3bedbf-a857-4165-9bdd-a00d4791827f" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-29", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1f0f7eca-cd50-4add-8385-24f943fa3dd3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sylvia Garcia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 41.2982096142752, "margin_q05": 26.1475083049184, "margin_q95": 56.4341474799344, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1f0f7eca-cd50-4add-8385-24f943fa3dd3" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "1f16ec7e-8edb-4a30-81ef-7653d4e7c90b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Janelle Bynum", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.8394055777799, "margin_q05": 5.65339920735519, "margin_q95": 34.0766038262248, "win_prob_subject": 0.988, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/1f16ec7e-8edb-4a30-81ef-7653d4e7c90b" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "202323f5-39ca-48f2-b749-688f39d4486d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Maura Keller", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -22.6257799926118, "margin_q05": -37.0329220111279, "margin_q95": -8.28015764913527, "win_prob_subject": 0.00435, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/202323f5-39ca-48f2-b749-688f39d4486d" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "20822a95-f008-4264-bd88-8a14c05c423b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Michael Masuda", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.4566326056241, "margin_q05": -29.6857588221235, "margin_q95": 0.606637714631433, "win_prob_subject": 0.05615, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/20822a95-f008-4264-bd88-8a14c05c423b" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-21", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "21b3ae94-b799-4dff-9639-c788dc1b9820", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Blake Gendebien", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -3.9392804828171, "margin_q05": -19.534060568254, "margin_q95": 11.5560118500652, "win_prob_subject": 0.3379, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/21b3ae94-b799-4dff-9639-c788dc1b9820" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "22aae003-4636-440d-87f2-78f5bc6140e7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kevin Mullin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 54.5609925926213, "margin_q05": 39.4589335783903, "margin_q95": 69.7321582134465, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/22aae003-4636-440d-87f2-78f5bc6140e7" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-27", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "231ad194-f555-4651-a63b-40be8b773de1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Eliott Rodriguez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.5494645337883, "margin_q05": -21.6899902701395, "margin_q95": 8.5220390619316, "win_prob_subject": 0.24195, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/231ad194-f555-4651-a63b-40be8b773de1" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "23b582b8-d152-4de5-910f-58496bfa6566", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Wesley Bell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 60.4087416185242, "margin_q05": 46.3705990161527, "margin_q95": 74.3363639086265, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/23b582b8-d152-4de5-910f-58496bfa6566" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "23b7a578-83c6-413a-8d6a-d8f338b5f086", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "John \"Drew\" Williams", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -36.9124847885987, "margin_q05": -51.0244069905227, "margin_q95": -22.5165307026529, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/23b7a578-83c6-413a-8d6a-d8f338b5f086" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "23bb04e4-093e-4279-98b1-7ad999dd604d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Eunice Lehmacher", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -33.1335234770393, "margin_q05": -47.4541786182725, "margin_q95": -18.839028666324, "win_prob_subject": 0.00025, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/23bb04e4-093e-4279-98b1-7ad999dd604d" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "24836422-56c0-4943-babe-1d9b735571a7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Shawn Harris", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.8889351985598, "margin_q05": -38.9533877888359, "margin_q95": -10.7545523341277, "win_prob_subject": 0.00225, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/24836422-56c0-4943-babe-1d9b735571a7" }, { "geo_id": "US-ID", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "249a7d15-b97f-4b1b-aa28-88bf0f1634b5", "run_id": "a260ddb2-d6aa-414f-bf5a-5866844c61e2", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Todd Achilles", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -12.3791576513808, "margin_q05": -27.8483878417692, "margin_q95": 3.19740463782805, "win_prob_subject": 0.0915, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/249a7d15-b97f-4b1b-aa28-88bf0f1634b5" }, { "geo_id": "US-ID", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "249a7d15-b97f-4b1b-aa28-88bf0f1634b5", "run_id": "2b19c027-7294-4c1f-a4f7-a1899ba03ad6", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Todd Achilles", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -12.3478642570117, "margin_q05": -26.7647588133862, "margin_q95": 2.10387920113356, "win_prob_subject": 0.07708, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/249a7d15-b97f-4b1b-aa28-88bf0f1634b5" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "24b8467b-052d-459a-8f12-0b255aa67ca5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Michaela Barnett", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.449477469749, "margin_q05": -38.6949912798115, "margin_q95": -8.40601869894628, "win_prob_subject": 0.006, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/24b8467b-052d-459a-8f12-0b255aa67ca5" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "24d05b71-b2d0-41f5-87ce-381abdb95382", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brittany Pettersen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.6600165868183, "margin_q05": 14.4648922461671, "margin_q95": 42.6415419055466, "win_prob_subject": 0.9997, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/24d05b71-b2d0-41f5-87ce-381abdb95382" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "25112c52-f1ae-4443-9d9b-7c0fa8e92113", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Paige Cognetti", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.413467025245699, "margin_q05": -14.834566799504, "margin_q95": 13.7472627451984, "win_prob_subject": 0.4812, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/25112c52-f1ae-4443-9d9b-7c0fa8e92113" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "2539b8c8-5c28-4fb2-be64-21d7c1a9c03c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Don Coover", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.6386269824604, "margin_q05": -27.9107638115643, "margin_q95": 0.62906604748033, "win_prob_subject": 0.0576, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2539b8c8-5c28-4fb2-be64-21d7c1a9c03c" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "25b70986-015c-437a-9738-c3387d580fcc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.1117320038749, "margin_q05": 28.8646131643131, "margin_q95": 57.4846029767433, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/25b70986-015c-437a-9738-c3387d580fcc" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "2633c037-34c0-47da-9d8b-35ca17fb4c6c", "run_id": "9179b9fa-7e2e-489d-a5ee-e6a74819575d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Amy Acton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.22839955052282, "margin_q05": -9.44886336908479, "margin_q95": 11.9564345632052, "win_prob_subject": 0.5835936711598785, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2633c037-34c0-47da-9d8b-35ca17fb4c6c" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "2633c037-34c0-47da-9d8b-35ca17fb4c6c", "run_id": "9a2adc10-adf9-42fb-9b11-191285ab6100", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Amy Acton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.92832225340957, "margin_q05": -8.07752585476794, "margin_q95": 9.93378671748059, "win_prob_subject": 0.5752, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2633c037-34c0-47da-9d8b-35ca17fb4c6c" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "274c27d9-21e7-42ca-b0ba-18b1c5ce06da", "run_id": "f47919fd-6c75-4041-9067-21876948ec4a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Fredrick Love", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.0617430660429, "margin_q05": -34.6486672102589, "margin_q95": 2.66778457335023, "win_prob_subject": 0.0783254231982714, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/274c27d9-21e7-42ca-b0ba-18b1c5ce06da" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "274c27d9-21e7-42ca-b0ba-18b1c5ce06da", "run_id": "2beb88d4-7947-474d-a1c2-d7f94648afbf", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Fredrick Love", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.2030251556777, "margin_q05": -28.8020741413774, "margin_q95": 6.50507074323867, "win_prob_subject": 0.14794, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/274c27d9-21e7-42ca-b0ba-18b1c5ce06da" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "27525cd7-ef4c-428b-a724-1aef62535aad", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Josh Smead", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -30.6186404304958, "margin_q05": -46.0260401707848, "margin_q95": -15.0110555436075, "win_prob_subject": 0.0005, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/27525cd7-ef4c-428b-a724-1aef62535aad" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "276eb156-5c37-476a-8fa1-29e109be16c8", "run_id": "af143835-d5c4-46b2-809d-3c7f589043e3", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Adam Hamilton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.76057095372944, "margin_q05": -13.573621515969, "margin_q95": 8.12010853300953, "win_prob_subject": 0.31903746902783836, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/276eb156-5c37-476a-8fa1-29e109be16c8" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "276eb156-5c37-476a-8fa1-29e109be16c8", "run_id": "9d30b091-9dce-4615-9d5f-ba883526efd2", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Adam Hamilton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.9704182459053, "margin_q05": -10.1993177241904, "margin_q95": 8.29779207746744, "win_prob_subject": 0.4204, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/276eb156-5c37-476a-8fa1-29e109be16c8" }, { "geo_id": "US-ME", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "27e2f805-899b-4bc7-b741-ad63193090b1", "run_id": "1a53b286-f221-4fa0-a5b3-820b4d296dc0", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Troy Jackson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.66805971624361, "margin_q05": -13.2063482924253, "margin_q95": 7.84126552224353, "win_prob_subject": 0.3188722472875837, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/27e2f805-899b-4bc7-b741-ad63193090b1" }, { "geo_id": "US-ME", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "27e2f805-899b-4bc7-b741-ad63193090b1", "run_id": "d34f7c3e-e1c5-4955-945e-e1c4b1c9f6e6", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Troy Jackson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.420464970904136, "margin_q05": -8.48594430417159, "margin_q95": 9.22229495703526, "win_prob_subject": 0.53568, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/27e2f805-899b-4bc7-b741-ad63193090b1" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "28ef2dee-1bdc-4bfc-9eca-90d019196303", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Adam Gray", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 10.2657242170603, "margin_q05": -4.9113116764692, "margin_q95": 25.6931825960284, "win_prob_subject": 0.8663, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/28ef2dee-1bdc-4bfc-9eca-90d019196303" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-17", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "29647701-0cdb-4b1b-b2d6-4f5b7e21ae05", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Casey Shepard", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.401005082891, "margin_q05": -30.2360667437881, "margin_q95": -0.262324971006545, "win_prob_subject": 0.04755, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/29647701-0cdb-4b1b-b2d6-4f5b7e21ae05" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "29a257f9-a6af-4cb4-a24c-821f555fd503", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bill Foster", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.506944011161, "margin_q05": 7.21128091102477, "margin_q95": 35.5702276173895, "win_prob_subject": 0.9936, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/29a257f9-a6af-4cb4-a24c-821f555fd503" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-28", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "29c2b0a4-af1e-4b1f-9b31-ee5d6e2e93d5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Phil Ehr", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.0680995124501, "margin_q05": -38.14705875744, "margin_q95": -7.85126712647945, "win_prob_subject": 0.00555, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/29c2b0a4-af1e-4b1f-9b31-ee5d6e2e93d5" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "2a0b6e0f-89d2-450a-b96e-e585fc68344f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Emanuel Cleaver", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 35.1981049607449, "margin_q05": 21.1944672654977, "margin_q95": 49.4082897240996, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2a0b6e0f-89d2-450a-b96e-e585fc68344f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-22", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "2a3bdf84-22e5-4842-a9e9-53fa5080ae38", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "John Mannion", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 25.0353687676622, "margin_q05": 10.7360268481607, "margin_q95": 39.294305424411, "win_prob_subject": 0.99825, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2a3bdf84-22e5-4842-a9e9-53fa5080ae38" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "2cfbb0ca-4f12-40c7-a40c-6b305375493a", "run_id": "0f8ad980-6078-4012-ac7a-08cd96a9d4da", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Wes Moore", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 29.92170634406, "margin_q05": 11.334782199844, "margin_q95": 48.6512339834531, "win_prob_subject": 0.9955904213669919, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2cfbb0ca-4f12-40c7-a40c-6b305375493a" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "2cfbb0ca-4f12-40c7-a40c-6b305375493a", "run_id": "e6faefc0-6a17-4635-a811-d7cf34516f8b", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Wes Moore", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.1387388647245, "margin_q05": 10.5396898790248, "margin_q95": 45.8468347636409, "win_prob_subject": 0.99492, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2cfbb0ca-4f12-40c7-a40c-6b305375493a" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "2daf92fc-03b2-4c4e-8046-236afb9de98a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jessica Killin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -1.29994189023102, "margin_q05": -15.6128589921615, "margin_q95": 12.9538856705887, "win_prob_subject": 0.44435, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/2daf92fc-03b2-4c4e-8046-236afb9de98a" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "31b1660f-adfe-4144-b3f6-a7fa7ff92bad", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Amanda Green", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.95054337498609, "margin_q05": -25.0325616358672, "margin_q95": 5.20268032213659, "win_prob_subject": 0.1385, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/31b1660f-adfe-4144-b3f6-a7fa7ff92bad" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3244a0b7-9e7f-45dc-83bf-a3fe11e8cbc4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lori Trahan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 33.2275389633895, "margin_q05": 18.8240709855468, "margin_q95": 47.5523323780265, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3244a0b7-9e7f-45dc-83bf-a3fe11e8cbc4" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3265b603-8e4b-4c90-90a8-065d542051a2", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joyce Beatty", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 51.1983523977941, "margin_q05": 36.1343526033693, "margin_q95": 66.2267545069817, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3265b603-8e4b-4c90-90a8-065d542051a2" }, { "geo_id": "US-NH", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "32a70291-2040-4edb-b139-1d44cf408955", "run_id": "d970397b-c523-4897-af69-ace933301823", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Cinde Warmington", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.565273200361, "margin_q05": -20.2918228594599, "margin_q95": 1.20630436634188, "win_prob_subject": 0.0684818417411609, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/32a70291-2040-4edb-b139-1d44cf408955" }, { "geo_id": "US-NH", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "32a70291-2040-4edb-b139-1d44cf408955", "run_id": "f7d27197-67d0-49d7-be2c-c7a970f62d9c", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Cinde Warmington", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.0474258039771, "margin_q05": -20.2197803196624, "margin_q95": -1.90042893938223, "win_prob_subject": 0.02908, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/32a70291-2040-4edb-b139-1d44cf408955" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "32aeb9f9-f2da-4831-90b2-e9a13a97b021", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kimberly Hardy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.34637230685996, "margin_q05": -23.5137530758742, "margin_q95": 6.695601796282, "win_prob_subject": 0.18365, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/32aeb9f9-f2da-4831-90b2-e9a13a97b021" }, { "geo_id": "US-WV", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "333e1fb5-264a-4c66-9841-4f00e83d0291", "run_id": "3f42109b-04ee-41ad-ba9c-538072927b7b", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Rachel Fetty Anderson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -32.4393522385668, "margin_q05": -54.0472638862898, "margin_q95": -10.8314405908439, "win_prob_subject": 0.006767509158957385, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/333e1fb5-264a-4c66-9841-4f00e83d0291" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3536b437-5fbb-4c00-8ca9-16819ed930fc", "run_id": "5e5937a3-5695-44f8-94df-689bcb33715b", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.5872461546018, "margin_q05": -43.4414969915869, "margin_q95": -7.60570916891186, "win_prob_subject": 0.011268260686525089, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3536b437-5fbb-4c00-8ca9-16819ed930fc" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "3536b437-5fbb-4c00-8ca9-16819ed930fc", "run_id": "d6f70a91-7fc9-47f8-91d8-f49fe0169e2c", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -29.1286446151435, "margin_q05": -46.017439211828, "margin_q95": -12.1913792338068, "win_prob_subject": 0.00378, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3536b437-5fbb-4c00-8ca9-16819ed930fc" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-32", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "35669eb0-161e-48b8-aedd-74c962b79422", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brad Sherman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 33.4046505634523, "margin_q05": 18.4090393208149, "margin_q95": 48.4745223781003, "win_prob_subject": 0.9999, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/35669eb0-161e-48b8-aedd-74c962b79422" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "356d71ac-43c2-47f7-8ad8-5ba87a531dc8", "run_id": "8ab2d1d3-5a51-4ecc-bcfa-f92859882355", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Dan Osborn", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -1.93296658828483, "margin_q05": -12.6919022362907, "margin_q95": 8.8753087829374, "win_prob_subject": 0.36852, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/356d71ac-43c2-47f7-8ad8-5ba87a531dc8" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "356d71ac-43c2-47f7-8ad8-5ba87a531dc8", "run_id": "0c3631a6-2f05-432c-8a7b-be99bacd2b4a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Dan Osborn", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -1.90929906296238, "margin_q05": -11.0991916297487, "margin_q95": 7.19344201445703, "win_prob_subject": 0.3513, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/356d71ac-43c2-47f7-8ad8-5ba87a531dc8" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3584e316-e027-4e5e-85b0-6a93a2e979f7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kristi Burke", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -44.2291728518425, "margin_q05": -59.1418521879437, "margin_q95": -29.2027195407522, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3584e316-e027-4e5e-85b0-6a93a2e979f7" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "35cb2f76-8e79-483e-a48f-f9da711da455", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Angela Rodriguez Prilliman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.3165521643932, "margin_q05": -32.3016572236362, "margin_q95": -2.32378499918276, "win_prob_subject": 0.02815, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/35cb2f76-8e79-483e-a48f-f9da711da455" }, { "geo_id": "US-MS-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3622fddb-aad2-4d32-99bd-da842fe44420", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jeffrey Hulum III", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -33.423463431666, "margin_q05": -47.5421386941353, "margin_q95": -18.9193269151318, "win_prob_subject": 0.0001, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3622fddb-aad2-4d32-99bd-da842fe44420" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "362aaf8b-6986-4523-873d-ba9841749210", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "John Croisant", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.5879553247011, "margin_q05": -30.0935996308717, "margin_q95": 0.999721952549158, "win_prob_subject": 0.06255, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/362aaf8b-6986-4523-873d-ba9841749210" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "364c71b2-083f-494d-98b2-a0d122a88274", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rick Larsen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 36.9687089176004, "margin_q05": 22.6892105513799, "margin_q95": 50.9988271807484, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/364c71b2-083f-494d-98b2-a0d122a88274" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "36644b43-a0d7-4650-962a-f0c2461d9eac", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "John Vincent", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.9815566439879, "margin_q05": -28.3161057394346, "margin_q95": 0.553336640755397, "win_prob_subject": 0.05715, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/36644b43-a0d7-4650-962a-f0c2461d9eac" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3787ce69-8d0a-4472-bd0f-3e0aa42c962b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Suzie Byrd", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -35.4274949470265, "margin_q05": -49.690327934391, "margin_q95": -21.2631167896853, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3787ce69-8d0a-4472-bd0f-3e0aa42c962b" }, { "geo_id": "US-ID", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "38ecfa6f-de2f-48fd-9359-94653720e4b9", "run_id": "58fdb2e1-852a-4ccb-a648-f275d03fc15a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Terri Pickens", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -28.0550088603153, "margin_q05": -46.6419330045313, "margin_q95": -9.32548122092228, "win_prob_subject": 0.00790075900368492, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/38ecfa6f-de2f-48fd-9359-94653720e4b9" }, { "geo_id": "US-ID", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "38ecfa6f-de2f-48fd-9359-94653720e4b9", "run_id": "2558ea2e-9f78-4642-808a-5e267c0856e2", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Terri Pickens", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -22.7946339975894, "margin_q05": -40.3936829832891, "margin_q95": -5.08653809867304, "win_prob_subject": 0.01762, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/38ecfa6f-de2f-48fd-9359-94653720e4b9" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3b16c07c-679c-4c20-aab0-9f2188657e5d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Laura Jones", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.6481888081232, "margin_q05": -31.4564760767494, "margin_q95": -1.561198630538, "win_prob_subject": 0.03455, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3b16c07c-679c-4c20-aab0-9f2188657e5d" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3b96de5e-d018-4e07-822f-227668a1308f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Amanda Hollowell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.74032452969751, "margin_q05": -25.3579196149118, "margin_q95": 5.84484075175653, "win_prob_subject": 0.15275, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3b96de5e-d018-4e07-822f-227668a1308f" }, { "geo_id": "US-UT-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3b9a634e-ff51-496b-a322-fce281cc5743", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ben McAdams", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 37.6112753044679, "margin_q05": 22.6330728700669, "margin_q95": 52.5974211399274, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3b9a634e-ff51-496b-a322-fce281cc5743" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3bc2e766-d266-4b11-bf29-1a7318a5102c", "run_id": "eb010c2e-31f1-4563-9c5f-2348fb4e7505", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Juliana Stratton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 16.956645066204, "margin_q05": -0.897605770780995, "margin_q95": 34.9381820518939, "win_prob_subject": 0.9408404644541366, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3bc2e766-d266-4b11-bf29-1a7318a5102c" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "3bc2e766-d266-4b11-bf29-1a7318a5102c", "run_id": "3f765f0a-65b4-45b6-b5ee-d500fb56ce48", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Juliana Stratton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 13.0325327619936, "margin_q05": -3.85626183469091, "margin_q95": 29.9697981433303, "win_prob_subject": 0.90286, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3bc2e766-d266-4b11-bf29-1a7318a5102c" }, { "geo_id": "US-ME-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3bce64c2-35f1-4ee7-bcee-8d60617a6fb0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chellie Pingree", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.1541598911639, "margin_q05": 13.8656387418329, "margin_q95": 42.2981877288395, "win_prob_subject": 0.9996, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3bce64c2-35f1-4ee7-bcee-8d60617a6fb0" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3d1a39e0-fa3c-4e65-b3f6-dcda02f6c6e0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brendan Boyle", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 46.8083430739568, "margin_q05": 32.75378404193, "margin_q95": 61.1047657275213, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3d1a39e0-fa3c-4e65-b3f6-dcda02f6c6e0" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3dfbf9cb-1ca1-4a4d-970e-ff4f27c8dc4c", "run_id": "b42b4601-75f3-4173-91d6-0cf33e15ce7c", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Sherrod Brown", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 2.01223789820326, "margin_q05": -8.49370728175505, "margin_q95": 12.6775570102593, "win_prob_subject": 0.6369249952124152, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3dfbf9cb-1ca1-4a4d-970e-ff4f27c8dc4c" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "3dfbf9cb-1ca1-4a4d-970e-ff4f27c8dc4c", "run_id": "e4f94114-4340-44a4-a9e4-80f119a94c8d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Sherrod Brown", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.65242563593817, "margin_q05": -7.25863571933752, "margin_q95": 10.5617301014774, "win_prob_subject": 0.6332, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3dfbf9cb-1ca1-4a4d-970e-ff4f27c8dc4c" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-23", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "3f852647-a33e-4d95-bcd3-395295a6a677", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Tessa Lynn Hodge", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.2369677228135, "margin_q05": -31.4375299217151, "margin_q95": -1.38660617338431, "win_prob_subject": 0.03685, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/3f852647-a33e-4d95-bcd3-395295a6a677" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "402c13fe-bc5e-469d-ae8d-41e568625eb8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Pramila Jayapal", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 73.0503125667839, "margin_q05": 58.9103058711642, "margin_q95": 87.2218465679868, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/402c13fe-bc5e-469d-ae8d-41e568625eb8" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4045ac0c-a58d-415b-81cf-3730c79cdfb8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Doug Chapin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.5346307128865, "margin_q05": -27.9116867336113, "margin_q95": 0.906599563019429, "win_prob_subject": 0.0612, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4045ac0c-a58d-415b-81cf-3730c79cdfb8" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4082a1d9-7b76-44c9-98de-7b3fe315bffb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chris Gallant", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.37529436048785, "margin_q05": -19.6902726570639, "margin_q95": 9.06248205199945, "win_prob_subject": 0.26915, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4082a1d9-7b76-44c9-98de-7b3fe315bffb" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4130c928-6a00-4e6c-9612-a7f91f8e627d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Adelita Grijalva", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.8192476263245, "margin_q05": 17.6801513661954, "margin_q95": 45.9133044044558, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4130c928-6a00-4e6c-9612-a7f91f8e627d" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "41e5891b-1891-48f3-95d3-c9d11e3111e9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rosa DeLauro", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 27.1617896783947, "margin_q05": 12.9896868785053, "margin_q95": 41.1330200741323, "win_prob_subject": 0.9994, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/41e5891b-1891-48f3-95d3-c9d11e3111e9" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "41f90adb-4132-4973-a781-8f56f8c2df94", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Madeleine Dean", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 30.3591187869068, "margin_q05": 16.2340532782809, "margin_q95": 44.5332862539232, "win_prob_subject": 0.99955, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/41f90adb-4132-4973-a781-8f56f8c2df94" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-23", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "422455f8-651a-4a2f-bb9c-f9575d7991fd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Aaron Gies", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -19.5061341520483, "margin_q05": -33.9565613498049, "margin_q95": -5.08347161783331, "win_prob_subject": 0.01265, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/422455f8-651a-4a2f-bb9c-f9575d7991fd" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4244e5fc-3ab1-45d9-a330-5e2e3a920f3e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Frank Pallone", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 24.0913747843557, "margin_q05": 9.82107082890285, "margin_q95": 38.2935602667132, "win_prob_subject": 0.99775, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4244e5fc-3ab1-45d9-a330-5e2e3a920f3e" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "426970aa-8ae6-46d3-8d81-4b1d3823693d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Shaun Finnie", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.4208973953507, "margin_q05": -29.395642773452, "margin_q95": 0.495321303239435, "win_prob_subject": 0.0571, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/426970aa-8ae6-46d3-8d81-4b1d3823693d" }, { "geo_id": "US-UT-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "427281e9-c217-463e-8e30-506e2ce6ead8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Peter Crosby", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.0260884404262, "margin_q05": -26.3079772929982, "margin_q95": 4.17993818436683, "win_prob_subject": 0.1153, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/427281e9-c217-463e-8e30-506e2ce6ead8" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "42e403ec-44a1-47a2-b593-7544937c501b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ned Pillersdorf", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -51.4674173884511, "margin_q05": -65.4709785886817, "margin_q95": -37.1418333926097, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/42e403ec-44a1-47a2-b593-7544937c501b" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-16", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "43144080-2228-4c17-8fee-b5146b0d7a5f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kelly Kirschner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -3.44181624496398, "margin_q05": -18.5462418823974, "margin_q95": 11.3919310562913, "win_prob_subject": 0.3544, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/43144080-2228-4c17-8fee-b5146b0d7a5f" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4428f8b8-524c-4b04-8931-4a076c0437f7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mike Quigley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.4512193218024, "margin_q05": 30.3821055310812, "margin_q95": 58.6407387465137, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4428f8b8-524c-4b04-8931-4a076c0437f7" }, { "geo_id": "US-MS-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "442d32ab-f55d-43c3-9cd1-2299504a0587", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Michael Chiaradio", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.5911951736252, "margin_q05": -39.8152436172021, "margin_q95": -11.3693438629703, "win_prob_subject": 0.00185, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/442d32ab-f55d-43c3-9cd1-2299504a0587" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "44a0f6ed-4298-49a7-8a60-6b952ef1c8d8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Don Leonard", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.6997940151349, "margin_q05": -17.7535889850642, "margin_q95": 12.3661472490634, "win_prob_subject": 0.38415, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/44a0f6ed-4298-49a7-8a60-6b952ef1c8d8" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "451b4f2f-2393-4996-b419-eb69a642e522", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jake Auchincloss", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 35.1828325504075, "margin_q05": 20.9101855157246, "margin_q95": 49.3498740216491, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/451b4f2f-2393-4996-b419-eb69a642e522" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "457acc97-88a0-4ad9-a4e1-a973c78895b0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "James Pericola", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.18538087043702, "margin_q05": -21.3456243568567, "margin_q95": 9.0550325270871, "win_prob_subject": 0.24705, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/457acc97-88a0-4ad9-a4e1-a973c78895b0" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "46f043c2-e469-4c75-a1aa-746e8f6626cd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Thurman Bartie", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.0727195605579, "margin_q05": -30.9633586403612, "margin_q95": -1.12049750927949, "win_prob_subject": 0.03885, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/46f043c2-e469-4c75-a1aa-746e8f6626cd" }, { "geo_id": "US-ME-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "475970be-cc8f-4286-921a-662276b4a473", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Matthew Dunlap", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -3.20170784996374, "margin_q05": -18.8081171221776, "margin_q95": 12.4323692856646, "win_prob_subject": 0.36785, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/475970be-cc8f-4286-921a-662276b4a473" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4799d889-23a6-491f-a393-465eddfe98e6", "run_id": "f6f98a8f-75bf-4522-beb3-f9191665a110", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Rob Sand", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 4.77956490456747, "margin_q05": -5.88395045189808, "margin_q95": 15.4807564092827, "win_prob_subject": 0.7905693140283302, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4799d889-23a6-491f-a393-465eddfe98e6" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "4799d889-23a6-491f-a393-465eddfe98e6", "run_id": "a8c0857e-ef29-4591-8e31-1644690e051f", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Rob Sand", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.32234943708288, "margin_q05": -2.804242105117, "margin_q95": 15.3426838830434, "win_prob_subject": 0.88824, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4799d889-23a6-491f-a393-465eddfe98e6" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "479f132e-6b8f-4d2e-bedb-109111e7a5b1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Janelle Stelson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 2.7073054836675, "margin_q05": -11.3248969819859, "margin_q95": 16.8073726070372, "win_prob_subject": 0.6253, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/479f132e-6b8f-4d2e-bedb-109111e7a5b1" }, { "geo_id": "US-RI", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4a294ee5-4de7-42bf-bbc7-0422128a5ede", "run_id": "2779090f-23dd-45df-a6b3-be8a393b0d32", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Helena Foulkes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 18.5240098914158, "margin_q05": 6.99510737506737, "margin_q95": 30.1292603874766, "win_prob_subject": 0.9908679858610467, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4a294ee5-4de7-42bf-bbc7-0422128a5ede" }, { "geo_id": "US-RI", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "4a294ee5-4de7-42bf-bbc7-0422128a5ede", "run_id": "33386600-354a-4419-8a2e-48b1f75ed56b", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Helena Foulkes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 17.7300800692188, "margin_q05": 7.64496662554517, "margin_q95": 27.7247260775982, "win_prob_subject": 0.99378, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4a294ee5-4de7-42bf-bbc7-0422128a5ede" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4a2b325a-ff0b-4055-b8de-0336a0e6d9cd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Eric Yonce", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.556033379102, "margin_q05": -38.8507907052991, "margin_q95": -8.28450899063401, "win_prob_subject": 0.0052, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4a2b325a-ff0b-4055-b8de-0336a0e6d9cd" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4ae803ae-1b00-41d5-b26d-85bd19c0ce8b", "run_id": "49d7f6c9-bbc3-4311-bd72-0f5b9701cde1", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Ned Lamont", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 15.8230811779293, "margin_q05": 4.75603271812603, "margin_q95": 26.9710167333292, "win_prob_subject": 0.9842061359223091, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4ae803ae-1b00-41d5-b26d-85bd19c0ce8b" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "4ae803ae-1b00-41d5-b26d-85bd19c0ce8b", "run_id": "71928c4c-c513-49b3-a985-b2574e2a076d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Ned Lamont", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 13.8861904133059, "margin_q05": 4.29298446631987, "margin_q95": 23.4429232107549, "win_prob_subject": 0.98518, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4ae803ae-1b00-41d5-b26d-85bd19c0ce8b" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4b1cf30e-20ff-459b-9b3d-d0c35e46a276", "run_id": "f94a142c-442f-4751-aabc-8209b39bb633", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Everett Wess", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.0427348896118, "margin_q05": -40.8969857265968, "margin_q95": -5.0611979039219, "win_prob_subject": 0.018947946694127693, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4b1cf30e-20ff-459b-9b3d-d0c35e46a276" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "4b1cf30e-20ff-459b-9b3d-d0c35e46a276", "run_id": "e2d6d52b-f100-4286-9c31-20a2c0ba5663", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Everett Wess", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -21.6487493569283, "margin_q05": -38.5375439536128, "margin_q95": -4.71148397559163, "win_prob_subject": 0.01862, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4b1cf30e-20ff-459b-9b3d-d0c35e46a276" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4be62c21-7e41-4605-a022-f385b23fbcd9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rachel Grage", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.3903084953169, "margin_q05": -30.3454826282167, "margin_q95": -0.456842949113366, "win_prob_subject": 0.0447, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4be62c21-7e41-4605-a022-f385b23fbcd9" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4c105aee-8455-483e-b3b1-77c7bdfd62f2", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Amanda Pusczek", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -49.6586262287359, "margin_q05": -64.6645478358914, "margin_q95": -34.7645867393877, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4c105aee-8455-483e-b3b1-77c7bdfd62f2" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4d4dd44a-39cd-42cb-9f1b-c03bba5404de", "run_id": "115f45f6-5674-4609-b077-2e4599eefb0e", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Peggy Flanagan", "subject_party": "DFL", "expected_margin": 5.11817779292158, "margin_q05": -5.48365384643038, "margin_q95": 15.7769258369514, "win_prob_subject": 0.8060979798300341, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4d4dd44a-39cd-42cb-9f1b-c03bba5404de" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "4d4dd44a-39cd-42cb-9f1b-c03bba5404de", "run_id": "d68bf357-e5e7-44f8-b8a0-64c9582ab376", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Peggy Flanagan", "subject_party": "DFL", "expected_margin": 2.05157570696646, "margin_q05": -6.95204681797488, "margin_q95": 11.0811870553052, "win_prob_subject": 0.66264, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4d4dd44a-39cd-42cb-9f1b-c03bba5404de" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4d55034e-a995-4b2f-b531-3797475da74a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Darden Copeland", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.3175416323792, "margin_q05": -31.2731982615357, "margin_q95": -1.20991309487308, "win_prob_subject": 0.0385, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4d55034e-a995-4b2f-b531-3797475da74a" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4e1d35a5-d45d-430d-b1de-ab04532d4305", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Robert People", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.4530213493039, "margin_q05": -28.5271476376075, "margin_q95": 1.4756640563063, "win_prob_subject": 0.0706, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4e1d35a5-d45d-430d-b1de-ab04532d4305" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-43", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4e22d3da-845c-49f5-8c81-76b9f1c45b7d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Maxine Waters", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 52.425480568379, "margin_q05": 37.2615094985633, "margin_q95": 67.5516834147165, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4e22d3da-845c-49f5-8c81-76b9f1c45b7d" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4e66ced8-ef59-4727-9fa0-d2d42c8b2f4f", "run_id": "283d4402-a3e5-477e-9671-c367024b62b1", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Phil Weiser", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.9783713871278, "margin_q05": 0.370459739404819, "margin_q95": 43.5862830348507, "win_prob_subject": 0.9528416709892955, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4e66ced8-ef59-4727-9fa0-d2d42c8b2f4f" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4e863d61-81f2-4c5a-886c-99edd9a2d81f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brad Smith", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.6637485280357, "margin_q05": -31.8842517181201, "margin_q95": -3.25454313571601, "win_prob_subject": 0.02165, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4e863d61-81f2-4c5a-886c-99edd9a2d81f" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4f3b4633-2597-4b82-917d-53faf47413d0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kweisi Mfume", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 63.2724536918446, "margin_q05": 49.0148735473522, "margin_q95": 77.3720901931856, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4f3b4633-2597-4b82-917d-53faf47413d0" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4f76a00d-4605-4ea2-adf1-e12191008d11", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kelly Morrison", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 34.2680163126762, "margin_q05": 20.2172348936464, "margin_q95": 48.4130355579901, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4f76a00d-4605-4ea2-adf1-e12191008d11" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-32", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "4ffc8d82-8e62-4050-9abc-b8cc8794635d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dan Barrios", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.79227651500596, "margin_q05": -24.776665977709, "margin_q95": 5.37071910218249, "win_prob_subject": 0.14455, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/4ffc8d82-8e62-4050-9abc-b8cc8794635d" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "505b3e4e-6a3f-4382-a622-25eee315517d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Victoria Broderick", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.7431953888423, "margin_q05": -30.021674945468, "margin_q95": 0.512835533706335, "win_prob_subject": 0.05625, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/505b3e4e-6a3f-4382-a622-25eee315517d" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "509576a7-e8eb-4984-ba32-8a5e5c8e34db", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Johnny Olszewski", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.3728134707471, "margin_q05": 17.2749732222791, "margin_q95": 45.5113305526044, "win_prob_subject": 0.9998, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/509576a7-e8eb-4984-ba32-8a5e5c8e34db" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "50fbf83a-5c0d-4f5f-9aa2-a48e9a34c620", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Heidi Kuhn", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.2277220903151, "margin_q05": -30.2506090246427, "margin_q95": -0.197855838813931, "win_prob_subject": 0.0482, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/50fbf83a-5c0d-4f5f-9aa2-a48e9a34c620" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "51992a8e-3e95-49e1-aa8a-85595dbcb6e0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Becky Stille", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -45.8311726617549, "margin_q05": -59.970237109082, "margin_q95": -31.6652264621069, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/51992a8e-3e95-49e1-aa8a-85595dbcb6e0" }, { "geo_id": "US-MS", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "51a28ad8-8ee7-47d6-b43d-05f7d4df1fa3", "run_id": "cdb1e06e-41dd-4365-8a95-475989fe5a40", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Scott Colom", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.5489776548458, "margin_q05": -31.4032284918308, "margin_q95": 4.43255933084409, "win_prob_subject": 0.10573512900594828, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/51a28ad8-8ee7-47d6-b43d-05f7d4df1fa3" }, { "geo_id": "US-MS", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "51a28ad8-8ee7-47d6-b43d-05f7d4df1fa3", "run_id": "1fe5e515-eb5c-407b-8870-7cf634b917bf", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Scott Colom", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.3156025455396, "margin_q05": -27.2043971422241, "margin_q95": 6.62166283579706, "win_prob_subject": 0.15726, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/51a28ad8-8ee7-47d6-b43d-05f7d4df1fa3" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "51e2b789-d76a-4534-8609-8df2e58b24be", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Teresa Leger Fern\u00e1ndez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.9470256138915, "margin_q05": 5.6207711760077, "margin_q95": 34.1965916649881, "win_prob_subject": 0.99015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/51e2b789-d76a-4534-8609-8df2e58b24be" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "52263908-db75-423a-9fea-e63477edff8c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Zack Mullock", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.57893637224957, "margin_q05": -22.9069336983557, "margin_q95": 5.76516386971275, "win_prob_subject": 0.16095, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/52263908-db75-423a-9fea-e63477edff8c" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "522d6673-7e81-4cec-a491-c288d4abb936", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Megan Wingfield", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -34.0167825995024, "margin_q05": -48.1924022229889, "margin_q95": -19.5497926037341, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/522d6673-7e81-4cec-a491-c288d4abb936" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5342998b-e42a-4d3a-8cdf-8bbe5dfb3551", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lauren Underwood", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.2722935566246, "margin_q05": 7.24922513705573, "margin_q95": 35.3870507377377, "win_prob_subject": 0.99315, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5342998b-e42a-4d3a-8cdf-8bbe5dfb3551" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-34", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "53858343-5ae8-4ea5-bb4d-bf68ff31bc3f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Vicente Gonzalez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 2.31575545834441, "margin_q05": -12.8175658700141, "margin_q95": 17.4256745522418, "win_prob_subject": 0.60075, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/53858343-5ae8-4ea5-bb4d-bf68ff31bc3f" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5421433e-49a1-4ebc-adab-9b6e7cf32e8d", "run_id": "ee126414-a158-4932-9e01-61b150cd5587", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "James Talarico", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.0985185233120278, "margin_q05": -10.5269145279217, "margin_q95": 10.4059098568939, "win_prob_subject": 0.4920405635826498, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5421433e-49a1-4ebc-adab-9b6e7cf32e8d" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "5421433e-49a1-4ebc-adab-9b6e7cf32e8d", "run_id": "02b4ec15-1775-4dc2-9fac-8d3bb7571009", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "James Talarico", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.04517501763093, "margin_q05": -7.6966336167916, "margin_q95": 9.75652308753117, "win_prob_subject": 0.58936, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5421433e-49a1-4ebc-adab-9b6e7cf32e8d" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "549e0afa-0b67-4686-8f2c-935c0d4f5b3b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Emilia Sykes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.7490598447333, "margin_q05": 4.58151944241256, "margin_q95": 35.0498788991943, "win_prob_subject": 0.98365, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/549e0afa-0b67-4686-8f2c-935c0d4f5b3b" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "56572e19-5b2e-45db-99e7-cbbf0b9022b6", "run_id": "e88bab3e-dc25-481e-b677-171f5123931a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "David Jolly", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.92441078520134, "margin_q05": -16.4051672355885, "margin_q95": 4.68480627511093, "win_prob_subject": 0.1564964744769206, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/56572e19-5b2e-45db-99e7-cbbf0b9022b6" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "56572e19-5b2e-45db-99e7-cbbf0b9022b6", "run_id": "f0b99925-8735-4864-93e4-5defbe24ff56", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "David Jolly", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.07535419032666, "margin_q05": -15.0199198291524, "margin_q95": 2.79606100149542, "win_prob_subject": 0.1147, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/56572e19-5b2e-45db-99e7-cbbf0b9022b6" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "571a63d2-105a-451d-96f9-1667080fac41", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Donavan McKinney", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 51.8444619241246, "margin_q05": 36.5528051342843, "margin_q95": 67.2209902794988, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/571a63d2-105a-451d-96f9-1667080fac41" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "573664df-bf23-4159-8708-e8f488f9b4e6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Adam Hamawy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.524286364457, "margin_q05": 13.0667690167893, "margin_q95": 43.9181351820429, "win_prob_subject": 0.9986, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/573664df-bf23-4159-8708-e8f488f9b4e6" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5782d781-f849-4a91-9906-1589a78551cb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jim Clyburn", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 36.7533306380784, "margin_q05": 22.4132755294866, "margin_q95": 50.982804700886, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5782d781-f849-4a91-9906-1589a78551cb" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "57882240-8f0e-421f-920b-3e837b7d6df4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Marcy Kaptur", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.5292094745531, "margin_q05": -13.6011665977513, "margin_q95": 16.7471322051752, "win_prob_subject": 0.5652, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/57882240-8f0e-421f-920b-3e837b7d6df4" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "57a22e02-0fc4-45b1-b5a5-45166c5d309c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rebecca Cooke", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.703167946196553, "margin_q05": -13.5558914142095, "margin_q95": 15.1329799705278, "win_prob_subject": 0.53105, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/57a22e02-0fc4-45b1-b5a5-45166c5d309c" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "57b30672-c66f-45b5-af89-d23ed6a1fd85", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Denise Powell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.25882707946308, "margin_q05": -7.27244347356845, "margin_q95": 23.8558201152956, "win_prob_subject": 0.8077, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/57b30672-c66f-45b5-af89-d23ed6a1fd85" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5914c17c-74cb-433f-89a0-1ba9ee83b2e4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bobby Scott", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 46.7942750365574, "margin_q05": 32.4227315453568, "margin_q95": 61.0068073474733, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5914c17c-74cb-433f-89a0-1ba9ee83b2e4" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "59375354-da27-4a8c-99e8-18cc247b0e25", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Beth Macy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.5807376222211, "margin_q05": -37.8472162420684, "margin_q95": -9.25375339770307, "win_prob_subject": 0.0029, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/59375354-da27-4a8c-99e8-18cc247b0e25" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-22", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5942c9b8-b43a-4c1a-8ceb-3d01170c4a7b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Randy Villegas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.331884744020804, "margin_q05": -14.8097718791566, "margin_q95": 15.5216198566302, "win_prob_subject": 0.51655, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5942c9b8-b43a-4c1a-8ceb-3d01170c4a7b" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5b15884e-35b1-495c-96ec-fa51751020f3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Vanessa Enoch", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.85045776271546, "margin_q05": -25.1062257073101, "margin_q95": 5.12317873366677, "win_prob_subject": 0.1411, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5b15884e-35b1-495c-96ec-fa51751020f3" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5b18d1bc-e40e-4ac7-ac18-667b47fe29ba", "run_id": "31fc6b8d-ae13-4ac2-926e-f3ae92547862", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Katie Hobbs", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 7.63677055045551, "margin_q05": -3.32201526664108, "margin_q95": 18.6944640133596, "win_prob_subject": 0.887541263263308, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5b18d1bc-e40e-4ac7-ac18-667b47fe29ba" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "5b18d1bc-e40e-4ac7-ac18-667b47fe29ba", "run_id": "e3b2940b-6b76-4b72-a613-87a6ceb001aa", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Katie Hobbs", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 5.62553374227995, "margin_q05": -3.73722538663872, "margin_q95": 15.0070583885993, "win_prob_subject": 0.85474, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5b18d1bc-e40e-4ac7-ac18-667b47fe29ba" }, { "geo_id": "US-VT", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5b6b230f-a17e-4921-818e-1aaec43d7628", "run_id": "d9152e17-3022-4d64-9345-7d25a549100b", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Amanda Janoo", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.0998378183572, "margin_q05": -23.1564755692482, "margin_q95": 0.925488246320278, "win_prob_subject": 0.06263013493208092, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5b6b230f-a17e-4921-818e-1aaec43d7628" }, { "geo_id": "US-VT", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "5b6b230f-a17e-4921-818e-1aaec43d7628", "run_id": "79a56bfb-c72f-44e2-bf92-4b8a9a6b4084", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Amanda Janoo", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.69239962468936, "margin_q05": -19.293527467256, "margin_q95": 1.83840396197628, "win_prob_subject": 0.08168, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5b6b230f-a17e-4921-818e-1aaec43d7628" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5bb5e3dc-ad80-4c29-8f77-35727756c057", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Debbie Dingell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 37.428542083871, "margin_q05": 23.2369597627434, "margin_q95": 51.6958734489468, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5bb5e3dc-ad80-4c29-8f77-35727756c057" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5bd873e5-57f9-4976-9a2e-599af9f41457", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "William Lawrence", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.384896840283447, "margin_q05": -13.8449329339902, "margin_q95": 14.7686405590063, "win_prob_subject": 0.51695, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5bd873e5-57f9-4976-9a2e-599af9f41457" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5bfd71f1-22c5-4462-8063-3add2c6f0e47", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kelly Thompson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -21.3388759659752, "margin_q05": -35.5833154991878, "margin_q95": -6.99794806258374, "win_prob_subject": 0.0072, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5bfd71f1-22c5-4462-8063-3add2c6f0e47" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5c443cfd-774d-45bf-bb6c-653cbdc7bed1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Carmela Conroy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.87234111885583, "margin_q05": -24.2433759844447, "margin_q95": 4.3510035878641, "win_prob_subject": 0.1271, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c443cfd-774d-45bf-bb6c-653cbdc7bed1" }, { "geo_id": "US-LA", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5c549966-1aa3-4b86-8c6e-e93b38ce4ab8", "run_id": "0b3495dd-fdb9-45b4-9148-b3756e363ada", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jamie Davis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.451297638092, "margin_q05": -36.3055484750771, "margin_q95": -0.469760652402104, "win_prob_subject": 0.04585617258023256, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c549966-1aa3-4b86-8c6e-e93b38ce4ab8" }, { "geo_id": "US-LA", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "5c549966-1aa3-4b86-8c6e-e93b38ce4ab8", "run_id": "ced0cf7e-fa36-44c7-8149-c16e445974d2", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jamie Davis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.137045270699, "margin_q05": -33.0258398673835, "margin_q95": 0.800220110637702, "win_prob_subject": 0.05886, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c549966-1aa3-4b86-8c6e-e93b38ce4ab8" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5c5f32d9-9188-4c95-86e2-9d1707718788", "run_id": "8ddb0cef-5620-463f-b927-b715f434a4b6", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Lynne Walz", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -7.36865648250583, "margin_q05": -18.3414238110587, "margin_q95": 3.62848300719677, "win_prob_subject": 0.12248915372617553, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c5f32d9-9188-4c95-86e2-9d1707718788" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "5c5f32d9-9188-4c95-86e2-9d1707718788", "run_id": "8b3bf60a-e44c-4a38-a900-3164e604a1d4", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Lynne Walz", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.71897157198542, "margin_q05": -16.1984086450376, "margin_q95": 2.61995384177448, "win_prob_subject": 0.10856, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c5f32d9-9188-4c95-86e2-9d1707718788" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5c92a3b2-01c9-4e8f-ba9d-ac466c91b005", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Yolanda Prince", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -38.612367491948, "margin_q05": -53.5560331421263, "margin_q95": -23.5883273147871, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c92a3b2-01c9-4e8f-ba9d-ac466c91b005" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-39", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5c9fe942-d8d3-4dff-ba51-3d9b8604f0f7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mark Takano", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.6144998164881, "margin_q05": 7.55934292194206, "margin_q95": 37.7546396700559, "win_prob_subject": 0.99285, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5c9fe942-d8d3-4dff-ba51-3d9b8604f0f7" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-35", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5ca37522-3b7b-4ae1-a80b-64685d799ac9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Johnny Garcia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.666765827936418, "margin_q05": -14.4672790244243, "margin_q95": 15.5949417687151, "win_prob_subject": 0.5306, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5ca37522-3b7b-4ae1-a80b-64685d799ac9" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5cc0942e-8100-49f0-88d0-42d015e8fc78", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rachel Wallace", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -29.736192837162, "margin_q05": -43.9349070940689, "margin_q95": -15.4036248533672, "win_prob_subject": 0.0003, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5cc0942e-8100-49f0-88d0-42d015e8fc78" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5dd95787-ac91-403a-bb17-fe5217a8d037", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jamie Ager", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 4.31037259528569, "margin_q05": -10.8792565174439, "margin_q95": 19.4018588208395, "win_prob_subject": 0.67665, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5dd95787-ac91-403a-bb17-fe5217a8d037" }, { "geo_id": "US-MT-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5e03cf94-bd3f-456f-beef-d482b282807e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brian Miller", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.6749318580333, "margin_q05": -37.8151615627474, "margin_q95": -9.48929713852209, "win_prob_subject": 0.00365, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5e03cf94-bd3f-456f-beef-d482b282807e" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5e277fd7-def5-466c-afdb-2e3b8a707d8a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chuck Hubbard", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -9.89022483818222, "margin_q05": -25.0587900108801, "margin_q95": 5.07839461546937, "win_prob_subject": 0.14085, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5e277fd7-def5-466c-afdb-2e3b8a707d8a" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5f2ce8e5-9024-4dda-919e-35e567cd228f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Hillary Scholten", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.9723591578054, "margin_q05": 8.70382099625975, "margin_q95": 37.1358774329404, "win_prob_subject": 0.996, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5f2ce8e5-9024-4dda-919e-35e567cd228f" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5f609764-3581-44e9-8a7a-7870024aee18", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chris Harden", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.64936604760744, "margin_q05": -24.047213246201, "margin_q95": 6.88514154765631, "win_prob_subject": 0.17935, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5f609764-3581-44e9-8a7a-7870024aee18" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "5f8e0020-ecac-4bf2-bfd6-027f9afa6186", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mark Nair", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -34.3701337203939, "margin_q05": -49.3752707300253, "margin_q95": -19.468426195268, "win_prob_subject": 5e-05, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/5f8e0020-ecac-4bf2-bfd6-027f9afa6186" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "600923e2-3812-462b-a47a-a8af92f5914a", "run_id": "d6ce7084-aa23-43bc-bbad-f25780a15d9f", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Cindy Holscher", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.09036771954261, "margin_q05": -15.0298664793574, "margin_q95": 6.8643620258236, "win_prob_subject": 0.24916159321464637, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/600923e2-3812-462b-a47a-a8af92f5914a" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "600923e2-3812-462b-a47a-a8af92f5914a", "run_id": "3487dcb4-2aa1-4927-89f9-14049416b625", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Cindy Holscher", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.27684270263183, "margin_q05": -14.7001593296348, "margin_q95": 4.08336720171383, "win_prob_subject": 0.16004, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/600923e2-3812-462b-a47a-a8af92f5914a" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "61160915-ac7a-45e6-9858-fd463dc956cb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Maurice Mercer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.0584676452629, "margin_q05": -39.095634808733, "margin_q95": -9.10528250690859, "win_prob_subject": 0.00465, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/61160915-ac7a-45e6-9858-fd463dc956cb" }, { "geo_id": "US-NE-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6179e1f5-6e70-4b2a-b99c-6786c53d3c4e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chris Backemeyer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -7.69231479676709, "margin_q05": -21.7683363647389, "margin_q95": 6.69373998128876, "win_prob_subject": 0.18735, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6179e1f5-6e70-4b2a-b99c-6786c53d3c4e" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "61901821-3f83-400f-a970-cf7bdc53d908", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Andrew Beck", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.5812516941912, "margin_q05": -31.0461920111522, "margin_q95": -2.37287114515554, "win_prob_subject": 0.02715, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/61901821-3f83-400f-a970-cf7bdc53d908" }, { "geo_id": "US-HI", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "62010b01-6748-4294-8e2b-a852e26f02eb", "run_id": "d1089616-c567-4bbb-94d4-b3f6b6e149ed", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Josh Green", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 33.5609973668523, "margin_q05": 11.9530857191293, "margin_q95": 55.1689090145752, "win_prob_subject": 0.9946868774368192, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/62010b01-6748-4294-8e2b-a852e26f02eb" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-21", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6295cb78-0ac8-4529-b838-59eeab0cacfd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "James Martin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.0166233736258, "margin_q05": -28.9901714444748, "margin_q95": 1.01169808497192, "win_prob_subject": 0.0632, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6295cb78-0ac8-4529-b838-59eeab0cacfd" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-25", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "62a6b5be-ff36-4736-b13a-a7f028b36f3d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dione Sims", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.2798334403615, "margin_q05": -31.2281672798227, "margin_q95": -1.02293428137237, "win_prob_subject": 0.04015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/62a6b5be-ff36-4736-b13a-a7f028b36f3d" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "62d2c847-393c-4fcb-b30d-3279e28cb9df", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "John Duresky", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.596442996695, "margin_q05": -32.1043688125994, "margin_q95": -1.26554789533326, "win_prob_subject": 0.03805, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/62d2c847-393c-4fcb-b30d-3279e28cb9df" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-48", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "62fd5365-fd21-4a0f-8e18-fce9968f6950", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Marni von Wilpert", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 5.40409356399859, "margin_q05": -9.68779111181344, "margin_q95": 20.6861247372885, "win_prob_subject": 0.7221, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/62fd5365-fd21-4a0f-8e18-fce9968f6950" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6338bf56-43b5-40d3-899d-53ebb6af936e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Darren Soto", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.180611107714348, "margin_q05": -14.7573254689219, "margin_q95": 15.262946611347, "win_prob_subject": 0.5099, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6338bf56-43b5-40d3-899d-53ebb6af936e" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "63ac4288-c9d4-4335-a0b5-afd2dd130dcb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Patrick Halpin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.8319116033556, "margin_q05": -26.4126763574212, "margin_q95": 2.46578880359306, "win_prob_subject": 0.08705, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/63ac4288-c9d4-4335-a0b5-afd2dd130dcb" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "63b6a2ba-ea14-474f-8844-571434e68a35", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jared Huffman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 34.8660188366112, "margin_q05": 19.859269052264, "margin_q95": 49.9013204050456, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/63b6a2ba-ea14-474f-8844-571434e68a35" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "64191f75-3c9d-474e-a125-9b28dff13328", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mary Allen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -28.9015608932862, "margin_q05": -43.1591738670643, "margin_q95": -14.6261551800595, "win_prob_subject": 0.00035, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/64191f75-3c9d-474e-a125-9b28dff13328" }, { "geo_id": "US-RI-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "64c8f187-0782-4fd9-8c85-d4e8714ef0d5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Seth Magaziner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 24.4036535243904, "margin_q05": 10.2155868948797, "margin_q95": 38.4806449070244, "win_prob_subject": 0.9978, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/64c8f187-0782-4fd9-8c85-d4e8714ef0d5" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "64cea786-c9ad-4b16-9ad6-933232c1c31e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Greg Landsman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.84449369866025, "margin_q05": -6.3725819284399, "margin_q95": 23.6461659752062, "win_prob_subject": 0.8305, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/64cea786-c9ad-4b16-9ad6-933232c1c31e" }, { "geo_id": "US-WY", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "64ee1baa-ec78-4ff0-a23e-75e89550295b", "run_id": "31d64219-09e2-4f4c-aff1-73b408cd61ad", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "James W. Byrd", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -35.8035790681125, "margin_q05": -57.4114907158355, "margin_q95": -14.1956674203896, "win_prob_subject": 0.0032105312044571036, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/64ee1baa-ec78-4ff0-a23e-75e89550295b" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-18", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "66408314-e7e5-47f3-aa48-413170239480", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Zoe Lofgren", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 36.9198386660059, "margin_q05": 21.5829793026288, "margin_q95": 52.0435566656093, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/66408314-e7e5-47f3-aa48-413170239480" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-47", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "666d40f9-af72-43ed-9249-6dadb6dfce22", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dave Min", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.6105025908033, "margin_q05": 8.48932654127931, "margin_q95": 38.6032765512257, "win_prob_subject": 0.9951, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/666d40f9-af72-43ed-9249-6dadb6dfce22" }, { "geo_id": "US-UT-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "669828a1-933b-455e-8bb5-5076fb15b5a8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jonny Larsen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.6453684119525, "margin_q05": -33.7811323531141, "margin_q95": -3.45244662163532, "win_prob_subject": 0.0214, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/669828a1-933b-455e-8bb5-5076fb15b5a8" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "67572c9d-44f1-4612-b16e-8fde808938e6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nikki Budzinski", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 27.6847054775205, "margin_q05": 13.5955906655929, "margin_q95": 41.7815998392435, "win_prob_subject": 0.99915, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/67572c9d-44f1-4612-b16e-8fde808938e6" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "67625426-dc32-49dd-a8c8-ba48b2b8e2b9", "run_id": "4a22a621-88fd-4ab4-bd33-41ab2e1bedd1", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Roy Cooper", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.7583481627757, "margin_q05": -1.72058973454815, "margin_q95": 19.341689451826, "win_prob_subject": 0.9223469348767648, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/67625426-dc32-49dd-a8c8-ba48b2b8e2b9" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "67625426-dc32-49dd-a8c8-ba48b2b8e2b9", "run_id": "aeda5e3a-da4b-4e4c-83f3-75adbaa6a2f1", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Roy Cooper", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.06540522503409, "margin_q05": -0.826831545323048, "margin_q95": 16.9205851082779, "win_prob_subject": 0.93646, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/67625426-dc32-49dd-a8c8-ba48b2b8e2b9" }, { "geo_id": "US-NV-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "67a952f3-48bb-43be-be71-2619b9feb4ce", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dina Titus", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 14.0036330646141, "margin_q05": -0.124271966776907, "margin_q95": 28.1070111708959, "win_prob_subject": 0.94865, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/67a952f3-48bb-43be-be71-2619b9feb4ce" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "67bcc2c7-7b86-47d9-bb21-918d05748afa", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Laura Gillen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 12.4984619915784, "margin_q05": -1.88859072816488, "margin_q95": 26.7340308149706, "win_prob_subject": 0.92645, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/67bcc2c7-7b86-47d9-bb21-918d05748afa" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "67dd6c55-5ec8-4622-be50-7abcddb4a3a7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rachel Peace", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.9435533265147, "margin_q05": -39.0855798436096, "margin_q95": -10.548826677497, "win_prob_subject": 0.00205, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/67dd6c55-5ec8-4622-be50-7abcddb4a3a7" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "682467dc-a22d-4642-8385-c706253033e5", "run_id": "3bbc3048-d8c2-4cac-908a-1b33bfd5c14d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Tina Kotek", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.47708166237159, "margin_q05": -7.62452821805072, "margin_q95": 14.5216927941005, "win_prob_subject": 0.716220410374109, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/682467dc-a22d-4642-8385-c706253033e5" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "682467dc-a22d-4642-8385-c706253033e5", "run_id": "2f9f02fe-5d3d-4216-8094-686fe8346724", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Tina Kotek", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.830293357314111, "margin_q05": -10.3778646411795, "margin_q95": 8.61016676613959, "win_prob_subject": 0.43752, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/682467dc-a22d-4642-8385-c706253033e5" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "687102ae-90e1-4771-97a2-473aa74bcc7c", "run_id": "858959c6-f95f-41e0-8875-678c257a984d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jermaine Johnson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.6791621094441, "margin_q05": -29.2660862536602, "margin_q95": 8.05036552994891, "win_prob_subject": 0.16980775798614278, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/687102ae-90e1-4771-97a2-473aa74bcc7c" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "687102ae-90e1-4771-97a2-473aa74bcc7c", "run_id": "d29d4730-ff8a-4450-a179-e8319277af2f", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jermaine Johnson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.5802025520795, "margin_q05": -30.1792515377792, "margin_q95": 5.12789334683683, "win_prob_subject": 0.1201, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/687102ae-90e1-4771-97a2-473aa74bcc7c" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "68dd9b59-485b-4ab9-80d3-7727737307f1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Yassamin Ansari", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 50.2338373731185, "margin_q05": 36.0117954897203, "margin_q95": 64.3844594272239, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/68dd9b59-485b-4ab9-80d3-7727737307f1" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6923df16-a604-4642-80f8-15bdafdf69ba", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Trina Swanson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.5041188864447, "margin_q05": -24.870724145531, "margin_q95": 4.021847410191, "win_prob_subject": 0.1135, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6923df16-a604-4642-80f8-15bdafdf69ba" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "69478790-2624-4218-bc93-fa9a168cba64", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lucy McBath", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 55.3546333167007, "margin_q05": 41.0749213415368, "margin_q95": 69.4194190418076, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/69478790-2624-4218-bc93-fa9a168cba64" }, { "geo_id": "US-SD", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "69735997-9a76-4452-b017-f3fc5d3af695", "run_id": "58e502c8-aab6-42fc-8f74-a68201eae8ca", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Brian Bengs", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -7.62060236204384, "margin_q05": -19.4765007124089, "margin_q95": 4.55684345252515, "win_prob_subject": 0.13782, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/69735997-9a76-4452-b017-f3fc5d3af695" }, { "geo_id": "US-SD", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "69735997-9a76-4452-b017-f3fc5d3af695", "run_id": "34ae136b-5ce4-41bd-9ab6-4e4ecba4d716", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Brian Bengs", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -7.60752143824303, "margin_q05": -18.1259273154078, "margin_q95": 3.09621590557972, "win_prob_subject": 0.1123, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/69735997-9a76-4452-b017-f3fc5d3af695" }, { "geo_id": "US-ID-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "69b80233-c34b-43eb-a5a2-d8277e9af4b8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kaylee Peterson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.6343669923952, "margin_q05": -37.9503732123588, "margin_q95": -9.39132754476675, "win_prob_subject": 0.00305, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/69b80233-c34b-43eb-a5a2-d8277e9af4b8" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "69c95564-0dba-42ae-a091-b9f2baff4c31", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jennifer Mazzuckelli", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -31.5520017293958, "margin_q05": -46.5833849854687, "margin_q95": -16.3289251066335, "win_prob_subject": 0.00035, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/69c95564-0dba-42ae-a091-b9f2baff4c31" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6a6ccbc7-6826-4c46-aba0-be68d317202f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Gay Valimont", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -27.4837205871895, "margin_q05": -42.4234668983804, "margin_q95": -12.5291494105346, "win_prob_subject": 0.00145, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6a6ccbc7-6826-4c46-aba0-be68d317202f" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-31", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6a701244-647d-44fa-9841-9f0943f2b55c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Gil Cisneros", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.7135202577367, "margin_q05": 7.91095139398124, "margin_q95": 37.7620128127085, "win_prob_subject": 0.9937, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6a701244-647d-44fa-9841-9f0943f2b55c" }, { "geo_id": "US-HI-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6a86eb69-5b60-47ed-bee5-ad8ebc7f68a6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jill Tokuda", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 36.6964948305335, "margin_q05": 22.5574428301856, "margin_q95": 50.9844634949301, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6a86eb69-5b60-47ed-bee5-ad8ebc7f68a6" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6a8a2cca-146c-45f3-bf07-6329bd84a72b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Don Beyer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 53.0909905386298, "margin_q05": 38.961596741428, "margin_q95": 67.0449392787975, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6a8a2cca-146c-45f3-bf07-6329bd84a72b" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6a9a0f64-6264-4244-a160-930842740469", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Melat Kiros", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 53.8793355495071, "margin_q05": 38.3359834911929, "margin_q95": 69.2990633412839, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6a9a0f64-6264-4244-a160-930842740469" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6abdc17d-4098-43b4-9e49-1233eccf78fb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nancy Mannion", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.6741833859775, "margin_q05": -30.1221125019319, "margin_q95": -1.30636385595878, "win_prob_subject": 0.03705, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6abdc17d-4098-43b4-9e49-1233eccf78fb" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6b3fea82-9f07-45f1-9055-f5a6d46ba204", "run_id": "3ac25d15-6c03-40cb-ae54-9c5495984b11", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Hallie Shoffner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.0411419708164, "margin_q05": -27.4694321663802, "margin_q95": -2.70912013610585, "win_prob_subject": 0.025603219758821294, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6b3fea82-9f07-45f1-9055-f5a6d46ba204" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "6b3fea82-9f07-45f1-9055-f5a6d46ba204", "run_id": "50ab00df-efa8-4c02-b41f-8d97a52dd1d4", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Hallie Shoffner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.9732949695579, "margin_q05": -22.9453180754987, "margin_q95": -0.98552175298669, "win_prob_subject": 0.03826, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6b3fea82-9f07-45f1-9055-f5a6d46ba204" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6b7262e5-f292-4c6b-a697-b1a25adb57fc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ray Bilger", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -30.4545649417663, "margin_q05": -44.7317292887863, "margin_q95": -16.2254170688072, "win_prob_subject": 0.0003, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6b7262e5-f292-4c6b-a697-b1a25adb57fc" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6bd09d3b-47fe-49ed-8011-75c1227ab2b6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Elizabeth Lee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.4550787227145, "margin_q05": -27.1005131466953, "margin_q95": 3.8191993221656, "win_prob_subject": 0.10935, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6bd09d3b-47fe-49ed-8011-75c1227ab2b6" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6c8d6f49-e7d3-47c2-9005-390b569ce0a7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Deborah Ross", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.5376775445389, "margin_q05": 29.6179562581972, "margin_q95": 59.5686231467891, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6c8d6f49-e7d3-47c2-9005-390b569ce0a7" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6c9577d3-2018-41e0-bc02-3a167ea3083a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Betty McCollum", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.6602154278116, "margin_q05": 30.3923919589951, "margin_q95": 58.7798779776986, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6c9577d3-2018-41e0-bc02-3a167ea3083a" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6d296087-64e0-460f-88b8-e3d09c2ee04a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ami Bera", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 24.8483323734907, "margin_q05": 9.74536850037406, "margin_q95": 40.162525204542, "win_prob_subject": 0.99685, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6d296087-64e0-460f-88b8-e3d09c2ee04a" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6d89a353-f2f9-4c1f-8e68-74e6c8a4742f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Cyril Jefferson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.8654946809376, "margin_q05": -26.0483526033667, "margin_q95": 4.14942456312168, "win_prob_subject": 0.1172, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6d89a353-f2f9-4c1f-8e68-74e6c8a4742f" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6ddfe362-0110-4652-a37c-cefec30d885c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sarah Trone Garriott", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.606098658819729, "margin_q05": -13.7413795046333, "margin_q95": 14.9035891206009, "win_prob_subject": 0.5279, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6ddfe362-0110-4652-a37c-cefec30d885c" }, { "geo_id": "US-DE-AL", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6df5e21b-7135-4a8d-9f42-a6f7cf006b72", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sarah McBride", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 27.5325477072829, "margin_q05": 13.2472851207248, "margin_q95": 41.891493050105, "win_prob_subject": 0.99915, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6df5e21b-7135-4a8d-9f42-a6f7cf006b72" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "6f75680c-6c28-461f-b5fa-a16639200796", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Val Hoyle", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.1556364759453, "margin_q05": 8.0700184853541, "margin_q95": 36.3169092649208, "win_prob_subject": 0.9948, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/6f75680c-6c28-461f-b5fa-a16639200796" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-17", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "70806a80-a63a-44cf-9829-c6c6fc64719c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chris Deluzio", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.7280834031645, "margin_q05": 8.51821871022972, "margin_q95": 36.9542647493126, "win_prob_subject": 0.9949, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/70806a80-a63a-44cf-9829-c6c6fc64719c" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "708a2f25-9ac6-4046-852e-86c6e310358e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nikema Williams", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 73.7319487077925, "margin_q05": 59.6888361331181, "margin_q95": 87.6875334730376, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/708a2f25-9ac6-4046-852e-86c6e310358e" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "70dc73d2-e5b8-4aac-b343-9b3e1cc49cbc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Melanie Stansbury", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.7353049770096, "margin_q05": 9.73315730104354, "margin_q95": 37.9599377159228, "win_prob_subject": 0.99745, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/70dc73d2-e5b8-4aac-b343-9b3e1cc49cbc" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-41", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "713adcfb-afb2-480a-82b0-4acfbc429e6e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Linda S\u00e1nchez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.4308904487246, "margin_q05": 4.43312714285072, "margin_q95": 34.6562630050745, "win_prob_subject": 0.9826, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/713adcfb-afb2-480a-82b0-4acfbc429e6e" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-38", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "718db099-3bad-4a2b-adc9-9270b277a7f4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Hilda Solis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.4998999910683, "margin_q05": 7.33889336643296, "margin_q95": 37.7500241965551, "win_prob_subject": 0.9923, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/718db099-3bad-4a2b-adc9-9270b277a7f4" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7211874f-19db-46c4-a0e0-e71409d514e0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kathy Castor", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.99484941636615, "margin_q05": -5.95691853647718, "margin_q95": 24.351938823275, "win_prob_subject": 0.8354, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7211874f-19db-46c4-a0e0-e71409d514e0" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "724db7ac-8be5-41e5-bb04-412fe7fcdc28", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jamie Raskin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 60.9160618680444, "margin_q05": 46.8880118686847, "margin_q95": 75.101311448465, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/724db7ac-8be5-41e5-bb04-412fe7fcdc28" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "726b89df-a966-43b2-896f-29c6291a2793", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Maria Jukic", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.2011307088581, "margin_q05": -30.3931003091778, "margin_q95": 0.0197391218332122, "win_prob_subject": 0.05015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/726b89df-a966-43b2-896f-29c6291a2793" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "731cd95f-8b71-40b4-80bf-12642f4defac", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Micah Lasher", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 69.6658035988716, "margin_q05": 54.1884164091092, "margin_q95": 85.2972754356088, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/731cd95f-8b71-40b4-80bf-12642f4defac" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-21", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "732ada8c-c021-4c0a-bbd6-05b79a73a303", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jim Costa", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 14.3062604138883, "margin_q05": -0.663956094556114, "margin_q95": 29.308617478823, "win_prob_subject": 0.94125, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/732ada8c-c021-4c0a-bbd6-05b79a73a303" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "73a159e7-50ea-42a4-894a-9b2a4248f10a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nellie Pou", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 14.598310723769, "margin_q05": 0.376124020452414, "margin_q95": 28.8303851572539, "win_prob_subject": 0.95415, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/73a159e7-50ea-42a4-894a-9b2a4248f10a" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "73fe9f76-8779-4787-bd62-5ef9572d6f0f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Clyde Jones", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -26.286061192616, "margin_q05": -41.2001477984124, "margin_q95": -11.2252082854538, "win_prob_subject": 0.0021, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/73fe9f76-8779-4787-bd62-5ef9572d6f0f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-18", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "74772fd1-c3dc-4cdd-9b79-669e8adfc0e1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Pat Ryan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 16.6211013553788, "margin_q05": 2.39024078558184, "margin_q95": 30.6786259437296, "win_prob_subject": 0.9741, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/74772fd1-c3dc-4cdd-9b79-669e8adfc0e1" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "74c77c06-a049-4df6-8155-c5707ea151d9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bob Harvie", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.15414096923696, "margin_q05": -18.3675707680471, "margin_q95": 10.0320091987912, "win_prob_subject": 0.317, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/74c77c06-a049-4df6-8155-c5707ea151d9" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7666abb1-5867-435b-8425-de7a493ab860", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Grace Meng", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.2645456286345, "margin_q05": 7.95263104157221, "margin_q95": 36.5191258933124, "win_prob_subject": 0.9939, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7666abb1-5867-435b-8425-de7a493ab860" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "76e07a5d-99a5-4b3e-9c3c-5ae6149da0d8", "run_id": "a74dc0c6-b574-4338-a64e-26043c4b2f33", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Xavier Becerra", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 18.8626477032119, "margin_q05": 7.5510768896914, "margin_q95": 30.0913043663353, "win_prob_subject": 0.9916480753987053, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/76e07a5d-99a5-4b3e-9c3c-5ae6149da0d8" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "76e07a5d-99a5-4b3e-9c3c-5ae6149da0d8", "run_id": "40b6e927-1c1f-4327-8a78-b04ca1dff7b3", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Xavier Becerra", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 17.760070471086, "margin_q05": 7.97706487832294, "margin_q95": 27.2693326448694, "win_prob_subject": 0.99426, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/76e07a5d-99a5-4b3e-9c3c-5ae6149da0d8" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7958d866-9bec-45d2-b064-96a5ed106d03", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Gwen Moore", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 56.3871365891892, "margin_q05": 42.3284979614285, "margin_q95": 70.3488264257989, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7958d866-9bec-45d2-b064-96a5ed106d03" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "798bd3d9-4d2c-4ed3-81e3-35421a3e9101", "run_id": "5db4a680-ac91-4338-abb0-cad9d74591d4", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Doug Jones", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -19.3598413924158, "margin_q05": -37.9467655366318, "margin_q95": -0.630313753022714, "win_prob_subject": 0.04495779701249292, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/798bd3d9-4d2c-4ed3-81e3-35421a3e9101" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "798bd3d9-4d2c-4ed3-81e3-35421a3e9101", "run_id": "35f918bd-fa8e-41cf-b5dc-f774696229d8", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Doug Jones", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -20.4159688089494, "margin_q05": -38.0150177946491, "margin_q95": -2.70787291003306, "win_prob_subject": 0.02918, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/798bd3d9-4d2c-4ed3-81e3-35421a3e9101" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-25", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "79b6cda6-84b6-4dcc-9e76-6502f39320f4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jared Moskowitz", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.62016909153982, "margin_q05": -6.5979236805965, "margin_q95": 23.5932735838332, "win_prob_subject": 0.8245, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/79b6cda6-84b6-4dcc-9e76-6502f39320f4" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-24", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "79c6d74b-84f8-45b0-8eda-70573cd8884e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kevin Burge", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.1675604767037, "margin_q05": -26.276877030802, "margin_q95": 4.14120177887068, "win_prob_subject": 0.1105, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/79c6d74b-84f8-45b0-8eda-70573cd8884e" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7aabdbaf-10c4-48af-9a00-52ce124dbdcd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Delia Ramirez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.138001710615, "margin_q05": 29.0642403528168, "margin_q95": 57.0704052203561, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7aabdbaf-10c4-48af-9a00-52ce124dbdcd" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7b40f6e0-2f3b-461d-8ea1-579279b5476d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Pamela DeLancy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.4344241991771, "margin_q05": -27.862496436548, "margin_q95": 2.97060479836406, "win_prob_subject": 0.09405, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7b40f6e0-2f3b-461d-8ea1-579279b5476d" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-26", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7b587538-ad0d-422f-84cf-9a369808420d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nicole Locklin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.2894566598316, "margin_q05": -32.410073634965, "margin_q95": -2.18554607688519, "win_prob_subject": 0.0302, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7b587538-ad0d-422f-84cf-9a369808420d" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7d3ed642-81c5-4e8e-a93d-1fa699f848cd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jordan Herrera", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -33.7380345232559, "margin_q05": -47.7769472337575, "margin_q95": -19.6251773064921, "win_prob_subject": 0.0001, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7d3ed642-81c5-4e8e-a93d-1fa699f848cd" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7d4e645b-c37d-4c01-9356-7aa3b8247104", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bob Brooks", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.66535561202981, "margin_q05": -10.6604171399285, "margin_q95": 17.9027292566886, "win_prob_subject": 0.6623, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7d4e645b-c37d-4c01-9356-7aa3b8247104" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7e2862c0-7ed2-42fd-a78a-b2c019416472", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Eugene Vindman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 13.3090463118738, "margin_q05": -0.97624286322834, "margin_q95": 27.4000334312627, "win_prob_subject": 0.93865, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7e2862c0-7ed2-42fd-a78a-b2c019416472" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7f488f20-3ea9-40d8-98c3-033fffe32489", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Julie Fortier", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -35.5549447279025, "margin_q05": -49.6301117871527, "margin_q95": -21.1836065327561, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7f488f20-3ea9-40d8-98c3-033fffe32489" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7f6b293a-f6ed-45dc-8932-46175982e407", "run_id": "0976a079-514e-4eb9-aedc-a54398d7be8d", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Cyndi Munson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.9102534447496, "margin_q05": -37.5181650924726, "margin_q95": 5.69765820297334, "win_prob_subject": 0.11292236660082416, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7f6b293a-f6ed-45dc-8932-46175982e407" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "7fb3eda6-1a55-4617-a2b9-ead31317e870", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Anna Golladay", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.4452310877345, "margin_q05": -40.7645994664795, "margin_q95": -10.1498548075859, "win_prob_subject": 0.00295, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/7fb3eda6-1a55-4617-a2b9-ead31317e870" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "800ba093-5c37-4905-82df-92fe8f6adf93", "run_id": "a5045aa0-3488-4d0b-86ff-e3e8e5170c21", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jocelyn Benson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.85620664051888, "margin_q05": -3.65972868052474, "margin_q95": 17.4114331458792, "win_prob_subject": 0.8754729320380288, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/800ba093-5c37-4905-82df-92fe8f6adf93" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "800ba093-5c37-4905-82df-92fe8f6adf93", "run_id": "519c9372-24c2-4373-951f-1cb3cf9c66dd", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jocelyn Benson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.08087415105897, "margin_q05": -2.77783503136173, "margin_q95": 14.9455455436349, "win_prob_subject": 0.8869, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/800ba093-5c37-4905-82df-92fe8f6adf93" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8042baac-7a26-4d91-a54b-7f0ad3c5cfce", "run_id": "696a716c-43c2-4d90-864a-ace97215f631", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Ed Markey", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.8652314713514, "margin_q05": 12.8823675401502, "margin_q95": 34.9000493782963, "win_prob_subject": 0.99729922885378, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8042baac-7a26-4d91-a54b-7f0ad3c5cfce" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "8042baac-7a26-4d91-a54b-7f0ad3c5cfce", "run_id": "a44241c7-18a8-4151-ae1a-f15464c022d0", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Ed Markey", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.2648840904537, "margin_q05": 12.8094396881429, "margin_q95": 31.6086882210031, "win_prob_subject": 0.99812, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8042baac-7a26-4d91-a54b-7f0ad3c5cfce" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "81258ab3-1d28-4e57-a77b-bb330a881bde", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "La Shawn Ford", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 70.5649470003427, "margin_q05": 55.3258277588749, "margin_q95": 86.0137012776693, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/81258ab3-1d28-4e57-a77b-bb330a881bde" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8212799f-c7ec-4618-805b-b7a346cbfd02", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Shontel Brown", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 58.626572310469, "margin_q05": 43.6634206432324, "margin_q95": 73.6169772613383, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8212799f-c7ec-4618-805b-b7a346cbfd02" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "83243c25-04bb-4a1b-82f8-a3a78cedd453", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Tom Perriello", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.46621958320361, "margin_q05": -18.4401405716821, "margin_q95": 9.51978084154966, "win_prob_subject": 0.2977, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/83243c25-04bb-4a1b-82f8-a3a78cedd453" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "84704982-4bdf-4873-9b9d-646149d2ccc5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jonathan Jackson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 42.0835192612017, "margin_q05": 27.9934206280614, "margin_q95": 56.136619527191, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/84704982-4bdf-4873-9b9d-646149d2ccc5" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "84b44445-c4fd-4e2b-9137-591f85690759", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chris Jones", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.10372460729596, "margin_q05": -16.2223145178493, "margin_q95": 11.8992510123125, "win_prob_subject": 0.403, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/84b44445-c4fd-4e2b-9137-591f85690759" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-23", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8859e821-f53a-43d2-893f-b2f1965eac09", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lois Frankel", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 26.1165219532736, "margin_q05": 10.6948490421627, "margin_q95": 41.2899035545152, "win_prob_subject": 0.99765, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8859e821-f53a-43d2-893f-b2f1965eac09" }, { "geo_id": "US-AK", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "886d8033-b301-468d-b3f5-57665676d05d", "run_id": "93e7d562-d80c-444f-8b18-25189569a914", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:44Z", "model": "ranked_choice_final_round/1.0.0", "subject": "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 7.88538884206344, "margin_q05": -5.53294883741464, "margin_q95": 21.3037265215415, "win_prob_subject": 0.8331306891395907, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/886d8033-b301-468d-b3f5-57665676d05d" }, { "geo_id": "US-AK", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "886d8033-b301-468d-b3f5-57665676d05d", "run_id": "b5918ae9-9d55-4b44-a108-8fd36b51000e", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:44Z", "model": "ranked_choice_final_round/1.0.0", "subject": "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 7.88538884206344, "margin_q05": -4.28244555804419, "margin_q95": 20.0532232421711, "win_prob_subject": 0.8567770142588167, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/886d8033-b301-468d-b3f5-57665676d05d" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "893f5b07-a2b8-4a61-9a3d-5f1c35dfd997", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Christian Vukasovich", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -20.2920828174115, "margin_q05": -34.6709200267831, "margin_q95": -6.10543529014983, "win_prob_subject": 0.0105, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/893f5b07-a2b8-4a61-9a3d-5f1c35dfd997" }, { "geo_id": "US-NH-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "897020f3-e097-4c84-86fd-29c34f1b9680", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Stefany Shaheen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.73110015083897, "margin_q05": -6.72159506537881, "margin_q95": 24.1278462286713, "win_prob_subject": 0.8203, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/897020f3-e097-4c84-86fd-29c34f1b9680" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8aac1e36-277e-4cd7-a643-fe4fbb1bfa09", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "James Walkinshaw", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.0177076864855, "margin_q05": 28.777443018826, "margin_q95": 57.089461565424, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8aac1e36-277e-4cd7-a643-fe4fbb1bfa09" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-22", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8b191310-6422-4e4c-bac9-e340a2aafe13", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Pia Dandiya", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.613271150271353, "margin_q05": -14.7376187870461, "margin_q95": 15.7305092650941, "win_prob_subject": 0.5281, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8b191310-6422-4e4c-bac9-e340a2aafe13" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-18", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8baafcd5-70aa-4577-9a81-a37720a6784c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Curtis Gibson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.3381282181972, "margin_q05": -28.3108743233295, "margin_q95": 1.72863600618783, "win_prob_subject": 0.07365, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8baafcd5-70aa-4577-9a81-a37720a6784c" }, { "geo_id": "US-AK-AL", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8bbec743-2210-4f0b-a278-acdc04182d9c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bill Hill", "subject_party": "I", "expected_margin": -8.99430541746201, "margin_q05": -26.2779025665659, "margin_q95": 8.37840914522609, "win_prob_subject": 0.19785, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8bbec743-2210-4f0b-a278-acdc04182d9c" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8ea94cc3-f79c-4ce0-9065-18dc01db16d4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mike McGuire", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.7598331517229, "margin_q05": 7.65678264446715, "margin_q95": 37.9098536403884, "win_prob_subject": 0.9932, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8ea94cc3-f79c-4ce0-9065-18dc01db16d4" }, { "geo_id": "US-RI-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8ee96c41-6690-4406-acda-a23b84e5c162", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Gabe Amo", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 36.2399770477747, "margin_q05": 22.2945793564822, "margin_q95": 50.4861717025763, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8ee96c41-6690-4406-acda-a23b84e5c162" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "8fddc59e-3e25-451c-91aa-3f92f06a31b4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Christopher Riechard", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -43.5952300977069, "margin_q05": -57.853309311945, "margin_q95": -29.2275321338968, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/8fddc59e-3e25-451c-91aa-3f92f06a31b4" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "900d5890-d208-4dd1-b197-cb1a1f791b62", "run_id": "8d3d13f2-f956-4a30-a347-dffbad1cd039", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Cory Booker", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.7154709167787, "margin_q05": -0.892440730944305, "margin_q95": 42.3233825645016, "win_prob_subject": 0.9425928702603241, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/900d5890-d208-4dd1-b197-cb1a1f791b62" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "901d8c92-b489-464c-98f3-e12f562ee528", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Summer Lee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.9861500262146, "margin_q05": 14.9239034473531, "margin_q95": 43.0962238843815, "win_prob_subject": 0.9997, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/901d8c92-b489-464c-98f3-e12f562ee528" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "90375826-9e31-4238-9c72-7a8b1b141ec6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Melissa Claire Strange", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.8559846542568, "margin_q05": -41.3743530681564, "margin_q95": -10.3689353769566, "win_prob_subject": 0.0029, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/90375826-9e31-4238-9c72-7a8b1b141ec6" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "90d1d42f-9bfc-4b11-9f09-0c6d6cc0b6a8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Tom Suozzi", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 10.5579908832366, "margin_q05": -3.75291531598502, "margin_q95": 24.9041386544796, "win_prob_subject": 0.88995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/90d1d42f-9bfc-4b11-9f09-0c6d6cc0b6a8" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "90daab1f-dc8c-4815-a334-c1624575eec9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Andr\u00e9 Carson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 48.9729333679184, "margin_q05": 34.8898204595668, "margin_q95": 63.0492207728012, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/90daab1f-dc8c-4815-a334-c1624575eec9" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9121c20f-46e6-4012-9792-925a7c428e58", "run_id": "fa1cf7a2-84e1-461f-ad6f-bcb02e739008", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Josh Turek", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -1.17195665330511, "margin_q05": -11.6727473416687, "margin_q95": 9.47370387562614, "win_prob_subject": 0.4162038105584709, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9121c20f-46e6-4012-9792-925a7c428e58" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "9121c20f-46e6-4012-9792-925a7c428e58", "run_id": "6cbfa236-d55d-4faf-b969-b103dc4c9c74", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Josh Turek", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -1.06797043055165, "margin_q05": -9.98866027703096, "margin_q95": 7.80499156607452, "win_prob_subject": 0.40674, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9121c20f-46e6-4012-9792-925a7c428e58" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "91e3a1ef-1140-4463-b807-bc140413ca30", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Darializa Avila Chevalier", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 56.176780754691, "margin_q05": 40.8750452070435, "margin_q95": 71.5941850592115, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/91e3a1ef-1140-4463-b807-bc140413ca30" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-36", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "91fcbe77-be4f-4454-b528-d5653d3c4b51", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rhonda Hart", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.759384402139, "margin_q05": -31.9356743263513, "margin_q95": -1.45733418016992, "win_prob_subject": 0.03495, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/91fcbe77-be4f-4454-b528-d5653d3c4b51" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-23", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "921fc206-dc90-465e-b88b-3e7e9dd8abc0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Katy Padilla Stout", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.39759084458603, "margin_q05": -20.4339706615679, "margin_q95": 9.87253607855141, "win_prob_subject": 0.27985, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/921fc206-dc90-465e-b88b-3e7e9dd8abc0" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "928d8bc9-a878-4b5f-9878-7a904d50d3e9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lizzie Fletcher", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 35.3109934015407, "margin_q05": 20.3087321201725, "margin_q95": 50.3332614812912, "win_prob_subject": 0.99985, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/928d8bc9-a878-4b5f-9878-7a904d50d3e9" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "93919e49-2092-4167-a29a-2091f55cb003", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dave Dawson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.4440235603005, "margin_q05": -32.0503964284633, "margin_q95": -1.11718120645764, "win_prob_subject": 0.0405, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/93919e49-2092-4167-a29a-2091f55cb003" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "93b4d23d-40c5-40b8-80c1-877595a8fa93", "run_id": "3ddf8ced-7610-41f8-a1ff-bb4a8942be62", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "John Hickenlooper", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 26.906082894329, "margin_q05": 5.29817124660601, "margin_q95": 48.5139945420519, "win_prob_subject": 0.979728081943443, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/93b4d23d-40c5-40b8-80c1-877595a8fa93" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "93ee5239-8671-4f8f-84ed-9781ff0468af", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lee McInnis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -34.4476363334424, "margin_q05": -49.4765515165989, "margin_q95": -19.3536531199893, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/93ee5239-8671-4f8f-84ed-9781ff0468af" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-36", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "96d2c9ef-2a30-4870-baf2-aad04634487d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ted Lieu", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 47.227231111554, "margin_q05": 32.1495658399934, "margin_q95": 62.1567588742287, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/96d2c9ef-2a30-4870-baf2-aad04634487d" }, { "geo_id": "US-MT-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "978d67f2-988d-4e04-9cbc-426121a47858", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sam Forstag", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.08865028484828, "margin_q05": -17.5195421482779, "margin_q95": 13.388914765983, "win_prob_subject": 0.40965, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/978d67f2-988d-4e04-9cbc-426121a47858" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "97a93471-23f2-4d23-ba9a-dfea05fecfaf", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Adrian Boafo", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.8540724787631, "margin_q05": 29.2042192059058, "margin_q95": 60.4958523785058, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/97a93471-23f2-4d23-ba9a-dfea05fecfaf" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-19", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "97c04e71-2b62-4605-8c55-92ca9bcf307a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jimmy Panetta", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.3618242461713, "margin_q05": 28.210773995533, "margin_q95": 58.439317566734, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/97c04e71-2b62-4605-8c55-92ca9bcf307a" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-33", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "986e4412-9391-4224-9f99-179c70ca9be0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Colin Allred", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 45.5768239417993, "margin_q05": 30.5980613073696, "margin_q95": 60.3475355885509, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/986e4412-9391-4224-9f99-179c70ca9be0" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-20", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9a5ce54f-0c8f-436d-823d-ae2462eb4ac6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Paul Tonko", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 29.4084379107869, "margin_q05": 15.179906694096, "margin_q95": 43.5784301549564, "win_prob_subject": 0.99945, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9a5ce54f-0c8f-436d-823d-ae2462eb4ac6" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9a69d093-06e2-418d-807e-9ab075699d26", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sanford Bishop", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.6201597123351, "margin_q05": 8.52946396384778, "margin_q95": 36.8139076293855, "win_prob_subject": 0.99595, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9a69d093-06e2-418d-807e-9ab075699d26" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9b0f0b16-0360-403a-8b5a-dec5e6c62cb8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Raymond Smith Jr.", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.57673835657109, "margin_q05": -19.7635249437971, "margin_q95": 10.6575546863702, "win_prob_subject": 0.30975, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9b0f0b16-0360-403a-8b5a-dec5e6c62cb8" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-52", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9b5d0471-b48b-4814-8502-91c1a6656066", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Juan Vargas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.1847946430893, "margin_q05": 13.0472918211665, "margin_q95": 43.3122850597743, "win_prob_subject": 0.99905, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9b5d0471-b48b-4814-8502-91c1a6656066" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9c120cf0-a2d7-453f-b96a-67d3c74b14ed", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chris Beck", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.7572955209425, "margin_q05": -32.0294123933286, "margin_q95": -3.47879449181892, "win_prob_subject": 0.01935, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9c120cf0-a2d7-453f-b96a-67d3c74b14ed" }, { "geo_id": "US-OR-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9cce08df-153b-4c13-a13a-f7cfc59ac33d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Suzanne Bonamici", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.5448773930467, "margin_q05": 30.4941259513533, "margin_q95": 58.5479438662676, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9cce08df-153b-4c13-a13a-f7cfc59ac33d" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9e1e9e2c-2ec1-4c56-9354-2770a8d96735", "run_id": "7de5f89c-bbf8-43ec-a8a9-5d173518554e", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 15.6417287298871, "margin_q05": -2.21252210709793, "margin_q95": 33.623265715577, "win_prob_subject": 0.9251089094864346, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9e1e9e2c-2ec1-4c56-9354-2770a8d96735" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "9e1e9e2c-2ec1-4c56-9354-2770a8d96735", "run_id": "0d6770f6-e825-400f-a500-aa0c2f4e75c3", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 13.0255507992532, "margin_q05": -3.86324379743131, "margin_q95": 29.9628161805899, "win_prob_subject": 0.90268, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9e1e9e2c-2ec1-4c56-9354-2770a8d96735" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9e6e1f28-b886-4197-bc1d-bafca11624a8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ashley Bell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.0049069420084, "margin_q05": -28.1596508219283, "margin_q95": 1.83848708763696, "win_prob_subject": 0.0775, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9e6e1f28-b886-4197-bc1d-bafca11624a8" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "9fb9aec0-ff1c-415e-8154-9ee9c2fb22a1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jerrad Christian", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -21.4119509934709, "margin_q05": -36.5851765818502, "margin_q95": -6.16267434987298, "win_prob_subject": 0.01035, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/9fb9aec0-ff1c-415e-8154-9ee9c2fb22a1" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a0d707c0-cfd9-4e44-b950-39f681fc05ad", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Fred Wellman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.21872473313289, "margin_q05": -16.4395321472181, "margin_q95": 12.1470353479681, "win_prob_subject": 0.39965, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a0d707c0-cfd9-4e44-b950-39f681fc05ad" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-16", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a14b7adc-f25f-424c-a749-6145bef4e8fb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Justin Wagner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.6751345425093, "margin_q05": -32.9336900645788, "margin_q95": -4.40843274617927, "win_prob_subject": 0.0147, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a14b7adc-f25f-424c-a749-6145bef4e8fb" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-26", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a1b2b3fc-d175-4f92-aee3-02d678d78dc0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jacqui Irwin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 26.1253379892068, "margin_q05": 11.1494710039104, "margin_q95": 41.2735422483222, "win_prob_subject": 0.9979, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a1b2b3fc-d175-4f92-aee3-02d678d78dc0" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a1d61e59-ed30-439b-afdc-58982bc51743", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Marilyn Strickland", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.815933764619, "margin_q05": 14.8042607941351, "margin_q95": 43.1540205095436, "win_prob_subject": 0.9995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a1d61e59-ed30-439b-afdc-58982bc51743" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a1eaac38-6eae-4c3d-9780-819525833a83", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Katy Tyndell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.6924978246183, "margin_q05": -31.8305639582765, "margin_q95": -3.47692419259263, "win_prob_subject": 0.0213, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a1eaac38-6eae-4c3d-9780-819525833a83" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a23ff0e4-7f89-4b8b-b84d-fde648fa547b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Manny Rutinel", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.40293290554188, "margin_q05": -12.8945133357087, "margin_q95": 15.4880241061727, "win_prob_subject": 0.56515, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a23ff0e4-7f89-4b8b-b84d-fde648fa547b" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a264a4dd-23b4-40d3-aeb0-90495d6b4a56", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sean McCann", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.08247047107294, "margin_q05": -16.3747973738567, "margin_q95": 12.1604336268451, "win_prob_subject": 0.4081, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a264a4dd-23b4-40d3-aeb0-90495d6b4a56" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-30", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a2760b40-2a32-4417-84ca-f2084ad35d79", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Laura Friedman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 51.4429225177625, "margin_q05": 36.4102570044722, "margin_q95": 66.6794940762806, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a2760b40-2a32-4417-84ca-f2084ad35d79" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a36f1391-495a-4889-b53d-7936e3a2a1b8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chelsey Hockett", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.0004677370595, "margin_q05": -30.0861140299471, "margin_q95": 0.398891166394611, "win_prob_subject": 0.05445, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a36f1391-495a-4889-b53d-7936e3a2a1b8" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a4193b01-a14b-441e-a47c-71f11f30b245", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bethany Mann", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -19.6276907179629, "margin_q05": -33.8264512909363, "margin_q95": -5.12292308148959, "win_prob_subject": 0.01325, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a4193b01-a14b-441e-a47c-71f11f30b245" }, { "geo_id": "US-SD", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a44a7ca2-4d5a-4ac9-9b5b-0b6423cd8a94", "run_id": "9a8bf0be-6b8d-4764-9c9f-cad6d51fb034", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Dan Ahlers", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -26.1399965791171, "margin_q05": -47.7479082268401, "margin_q95": -4.53208493139413, "win_prob_subject": 0.023303819578032587, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a44a7ca2-4d5a-4ac9-9b5b-0b6423cd8a94" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a47d2fa6-22fa-4bb0-bd3e-afbe6f2c45e1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Robb Ryerse", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.7739789635777, "margin_q05": -32.9109347946487, "margin_q95": -4.65964331833489, "win_prob_subject": 0.0157, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a47d2fa6-22fa-4bb0-bd3e-afbe6f2c45e1" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-17", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a4ff8652-bcbf-4f08-8846-78c74cc8fa8f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ro Khanna", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 52.7988102175661, "margin_q05": 37.7638627807515, "margin_q95": 67.814765473542, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a4ff8652-bcbf-4f08-8846-78c74cc8fa8f" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a623845a-7abd-47fd-a850-fbdd8e465ce3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ray Pooley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -26.7952398692343, "margin_q05": -41.1311632108616, "margin_q95": -12.4314073972489, "win_prob_subject": 0.00105, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a623845a-7abd-47fd-a850-fbdd8e465ce3" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a64b65f4-190e-43b9-ad9e-23c82988f427", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Claire Reynolds", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.2412046958935, "margin_q05": -39.4218678644351, "margin_q95": -9.27331978829216, "win_prob_subject": 0.00405, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a64b65f4-190e-43b9-ad9e-23c82988f427" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a805cd31-709a-47b8-b817-058d659ac295", "run_id": "173ccd7f-c67f-4430-8031-3664464e5fb6", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Annie Andrews", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.00471496451971, "margin_q05": -16.0995948950029, "margin_q95": 6.08036929865414, "win_prob_subject": 0.21031564717402618, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a805cd31-709a-47b8-b817-058d659ac295" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "a805cd31-709a-47b8-b817-058d659ac295", "run_id": "8858036b-4caa-4930-9bda-dc0e7e296556", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Annie Andrews", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -3.11409847837487, "margin_q05": -12.671811325542, "margin_q95": 6.41984041267198, "win_prob_subject": 0.27848, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a805cd31-709a-47b8-b817-058d659ac295" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a82229c6-8af6-4ac2-998f-8a783e592d5c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jennifer Todd", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -31.7922222146668, "margin_q05": -46.0952883671577, "margin_q95": -17.505333907033, "win_prob_subject": 0.0001, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a82229c6-8af6-4ac2-998f-8a783e592d5c" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a96c596f-adfc-42f4-a84f-b394f51a2472", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Yvette Clarke", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 51.984516563904, "margin_q05": 37.845130766867, "margin_q95": 66.218393506929, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a96c596f-adfc-42f4-a84f-b394f51a2472" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a9c8a26c-37d1-44fe-89b2-6ed1b8682bb8", "run_id": "8078900e-662b-4059-b960-7e33669052ee", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jon Ossoff", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 8.101500272529, "margin_q05": -2.62768265173263, "margin_q95": 18.8743378306243, "win_prob_subject": 0.9052131284797007, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a9c8a26c-37d1-44fe-89b2-6ed1b8682bb8" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "a9c8a26c-37d1-44fe-89b2-6ed1b8682bb8", "run_id": "3ea3d772-ec73-4821-8024-152ecbbf1323", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jon Ossoff", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.66588816780745, "margin_q05": -2.34410712073842, "margin_q95": 15.6924889638871, "win_prob_subject": 0.89696, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a9c8a26c-37d1-44fe-89b2-6ed1b8682bb8" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-19", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "a9db936c-83ed-4a8c-8463-62a1215348a9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Josh Riley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 15.567600575216, "margin_q05": 1.45235181934628, "margin_q95": 29.7080696759536, "win_prob_subject": 0.96525, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/a9db936c-83ed-4a8c-8463-62a1215348a9" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "aa350f5b-e506-49e6-b437-5b12cacc97b7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jennifer McClellan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.7157435591085, "margin_q05": 30.7169293295964, "margin_q95": 58.8191532574509, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/aa350f5b-e506-49e6-b437-5b12cacc97b7" }, { "geo_id": "US-MS-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "aa87b3d5-2ee5-40cf-b9e1-5bbae8580d19", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Cliff Johnson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -32.4780738551597, "margin_q05": -46.5587223878273, "margin_q95": -18.3156044796545, "win_prob_subject": 0.00015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/aa87b3d5-2ee5-40cf-b9e1-5bbae8580d19" }, { "geo_id": "US-DE", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "aaf72352-000c-44ee-a92d-646924e55a14", "run_id": "06310444-dc52-4b57-9e7d-d84592d79103", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Chris Coons", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 30.0974682688692, "margin_q05": 8.48955662114626, "margin_q95": 51.7053799165922, "win_prob_subject": 0.9890212428334866, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/aaf72352-000c-44ee-a92d-646924e55a14" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "adac4b8d-96dd-4e59-9a7a-c27b36c2d164", "run_id": "2e206e69-b517-4f8f-b4f4-9e454ae52eb3", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "JB Pritzker", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.2625925956228, "margin_q05": 0.675668451406799, "margin_q95": 37.9921202350159, "win_prob_subject": 0.9567310844544753, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/adac4b8d-96dd-4e59-9a7a-c27b36c2d164" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "adac4b8d-96dd-4e59-9a7a-c27b36c2d164", "run_id": "208c150c-97b5-46a1-88b7-2df0f3597a21", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "JB Pritzker", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 18.3177437106316, "margin_q05": 0.718694724931905, "margin_q95": 36.025839609548, "win_prob_subject": 0.9559, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/adac4b8d-96dd-4e59-9a7a-c27b36c2d164" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ae3abdd3-8a7d-4c88-b136-c9d9ccf7f0b7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Emily Randall", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.7481579234053, "margin_q05": 17.6378348645869, "margin_q95": 45.9677203308517, "win_prob_subject": 0.99985, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ae3abdd3-8a7d-4c88-b136-c9d9ccf7f0b7" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-19", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "aeacc680-eb07-4f81-a650-9883dd82cb94", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Victor Arias", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -22.259950580067, "margin_q05": -37.2806759674169, "margin_q95": -7.24474587910354, "win_prob_subject": 0.0077, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/aeacc680-eb07-4f81-a650-9883dd82cb94" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "af3dda7a-f3c8-4d2f-866c-8ba8f8e77481", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nancy Lacore", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.61145526192977, "margin_q05": -20.1063719249274, "margin_q95": 10.8826025868594, "win_prob_subject": 0.31415, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/af3dda7a-f3c8-4d2f-866c-8ba8f8e77481" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "af4d9410-ddff-4ca4-97f1-ec265de47d56", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kristina Knickerbocker", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.16972632255047, "margin_q05": -23.3949392977039, "margin_q95": 6.8826717586893, "win_prob_subject": 0.1884, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/af4d9410-ddff-4ca4-97f1-ec265de47d56" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b17ff3f1-d864-4990-8900-51604ec46091", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Seth Harp", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.9046374933958, "margin_q05": -28.8202848898492, "margin_q95": 1.14455840888834, "win_prob_subject": 0.06365, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b17ff3f1-d864-4990-8900-51604ec46091" }, { "geo_id": "US-RI", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b2036dee-403e-4ea7-931f-60e9069e2a8e", "run_id": "0bc387f9-6370-49ed-bc7a-abc31dd4d7ad", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jack Reed", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.8205457994231, "margin_q05": 9.29748547206959, "margin_q95": 32.4131920352071, "win_prob_subject": 0.9945162020813856, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b2036dee-403e-4ea7-931f-60e9069e2a8e" }, { "geo_id": "US-RI", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "b2036dee-403e-4ea7-931f-60e9069e2a8e", "run_id": "d256a478-b0ad-4d78-8204-74fffffa973c", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Jack Reed", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 18.9478329175038, "margin_q05": 8.77326236272006, "margin_q95": 29.1415866858278, "win_prob_subject": 0.99532, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b2036dee-403e-4ea7-931f-60e9069e2a8e" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-44", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b216bb7c-7089-4874-94ed-9de5f5751b2b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nanette Barrag\u00e1n", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 42.5197677498478, "margin_q05": 27.1535101872166, "margin_q95": 57.7876555825628, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b216bb7c-7089-4874-94ed-9de5f5751b2b" }, { "geo_id": "US-NH", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b315c8b0-77ce-44f0-9fe0-7d2daca377d7", "run_id": "9cce6d0e-6ec8-4cfb-aadd-9d6650b9f12f", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Chris Pappas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 5.60128182340778, "margin_q05": -4.91618066192275, "margin_q95": 16.2014485487824, "win_prob_subject": 0.8286989288942883, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b315c8b0-77ce-44f0-9fe0-7d2daca377d7" }, { "geo_id": "US-NH", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "b315c8b0-77ce-44f0-9fe0-7d2daca377d7", "run_id": "ca0297c5-1f2b-47e9-b682-3984364c0443", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Chris Pappas", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.68528331076463, "margin_q05": -5.17755741415981, "margin_q95": 12.5005196715031, "win_prob_subject": 0.7774, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b315c8b0-77ce-44f0-9fe0-7d2daca377d7" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b396a898-45fc-4f85-829b-61cfa7d1b23a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Danielle Sterbinsky", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.312700876591, "margin_q05": -38.5220614879902, "margin_q95": -10.2513078322035, "win_prob_subject": 0.0028, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b396a898-45fc-4f85-829b-61cfa7d1b23a" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-17", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b3fa7c78-4dd5-4a2c-bb90-32a20247bab4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Cait Conley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.23712860499175, "margin_q05": -14.2253582081096, "margin_q95": 14.456628743118, "win_prob_subject": 0.51195, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b3fa7c78-4dd5-4a2c-bb90-32a20247bab4" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-21", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b5b700dd-2c92-49a7-9ef1-f30949726173", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kristin Hook", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.4048802337621, "margin_q05": -30.5123634765677, "margin_q95": -0.13390645026601, "win_prob_subject": 0.0486, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b5b700dd-2c92-49a7-9ef1-f30949726173" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b5f6959a-7812-478c-ac3d-a449042f2be0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dan Koh", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 36.1624354170824, "margin_q05": 20.7979075351129, "margin_q95": 51.3672778244633, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b5f6959a-7812-478c-ac3d-a449042f2be0" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-17", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b616174a-4329-4854-9601-b7591518a5cc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Eric Sorensen", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.7639848438638, "margin_q05": 7.54206228290512, "margin_q95": 35.8874363668158, "win_prob_subject": 0.99415, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b616174a-4329-4854-9601-b7591518a5cc" }, { "geo_id": "US-NM-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b690aef4-1913-4467-8241-8664c716075b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Gabe Vasquez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 6.1132269542212, "margin_q05": -8.01313419129897, "margin_q95": 20.5226897116677, "win_prob_subject": 0.75735, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b690aef4-1913-4467-8241-8664c716075b" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b7020020-eb44-4e6b-8508-9009ee9fd8ff", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joy Powers", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -34.3675798729122, "margin_q05": -48.7742264288291, "margin_q95": -20.2042142048508, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b7020020-eb44-4e6b-8508-9009ee9fd8ff" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b8412eb2-a249-41ed-bc13-8e9ff9ac4d8a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Frank Mrvan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 15.1948970511871, "margin_q05": 0.910947289574492, "margin_q95": 29.586681815625, "win_prob_subject": 0.9609, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b8412eb2-a249-41ed-bc13-8e9ff9ac4d8a" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b8567328-d0bc-44df-bf80-21d010099a85", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Hakeem Jeffries", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 52.8039201320248, "margin_q05": 38.6208515467605, "margin_q95": 66.97255373059, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b8567328-d0bc-44df-bf80-21d010099a85" }, { "geo_id": "US-AR-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b87f085c-f07d-4226-8051-80f0e4cf6d16", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Terri Yarbrough", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -37.5786423470406, "margin_q05": -51.7198506575325, "margin_q95": -23.3592954484799, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b87f085c-f07d-4226-8051-80f0e4cf6d16" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b88b8186-6ea3-4f6c-a0f9-757d4299ceb6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Zach Dembo", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.410291388655035, "margin_q05": -15.7592082460529, "margin_q95": 14.8601350133275, "win_prob_subject": 0.48335, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b88b8186-6ea3-4f6c-a0f9-757d4299ceb6" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b941b149-1c9b-4f78-90cc-4ed9c69f574c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rashida Tlaib", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 46.8494803362673, "margin_q05": 32.6870713314699, "margin_q95": 61.1698396125011, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b941b149-1c9b-4f78-90cc-4ed9c69f574c" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "b94cda69-6cf2-42f9-8fc9-a883c0a53eb8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mike Croley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.870510756553, "margin_q05": -30.0728213382201, "margin_q95": 0.216163526591336, "win_prob_subject": 0.0529, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/b94cda69-6cf2-42f9-8fc9-a883c0a53eb8" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bad18ccb-8d1b-4694-95c1-5f3380918e49", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mary Gay Scanlon", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 41.0752362408901, "margin_q05": 26.975673497472, "margin_q95": 55.1080829318073, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bad18ccb-8d1b-4694-95c1-5f3380918e49" }, { "geo_id": "US-NV", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bb0f83fc-05dc-45e0-9d30-744de037f489", "run_id": "95c76608-e6f2-46a9-a455-eeb838425253", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Aaron Ford", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -3.61058902841485, "margin_q05": -14.6309918538868, "margin_q95": 7.59136030826026, "win_prob_subject": 0.27878716481184873, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bb0f83fc-05dc-45e0-9d30-744de037f489" }, { "geo_id": "US-NV", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "bb0f83fc-05dc-45e0-9d30-744de037f489", "run_id": "8af0b7aa-67c7-4564-ad7a-e2b2c8005c15", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Aaron Ford", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.05530780734823, "margin_q05": -14.6331809205076, "margin_q95": 4.52807066045151, "win_prob_subject": 0.1755, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bb0f83fc-05dc-45e0-9d30-744de037f489" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bb159304-a150-4693-96cd-7494e4ff9396", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Courtney McClain", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -14.9882754554539, "margin_q05": -29.205591305916, "margin_q95": -0.92525571760167, "win_prob_subject": 0.0397, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bb159304-a150-4693-96cd-7494e4ff9396" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bc10d979-93a9-4736-a1b3-dcf6dc08cade", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "J.D. Ford", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -7.05306482720232, "margin_q05": -21.4415871555497, "margin_q95": 7.20805049619778, "win_prob_subject": 0.2102, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bc10d979-93a9-4736-a1b3-dcf6dc08cade" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-35", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bc7448a5-7ac1-4e46-a39a-c271bd137a0f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Norma Torres", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.7722322233632, "margin_q05": 8.62626423216561, "margin_q95": 38.9539585765967, "win_prob_subject": 0.99485, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bc7448a5-7ac1-4e46-a39a-c271bd137a0f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-24", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bcd30672-d7fe-4abf-94f7-e2a08b37c30e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Alissa Ellman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.3295426324039, "margin_q05": -32.741048771061, "margin_q95": -4.01488577097941, "win_prob_subject": 0.0167, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bcd30672-d7fe-4abf-94f7-e2a08b37c30e" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bdd43ccd-e9f5-43db-9077-5d6dfe0930ca", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Amish Shah", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.6464649557099, "margin_q05": -11.8462256379049, "margin_q95": 19.0210468820487, "win_prob_subject": 0.6493, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bdd43ccd-e9f5-43db-9077-5d6dfe0930ca" }, { "geo_id": "US-WV-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "be67e0a3-5247-479b-97e8-c24c126be487", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Vince George", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -32.6394763564965, "margin_q05": -46.9220415730348, "margin_q95": -18.323358466378, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/be67e0a3-5247-479b-97e8-c24c126be487" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bef89e84-cb45-403b-ba9d-c0306b882cf7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Herb Conaway", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 22.3719187687742, "margin_q05": 8.21362594721301, "margin_q95": 36.608835964053, "win_prob_subject": 0.99495, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bef89e84-cb45-403b-ba9d-c0306b882cf7" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "bf53a5b3-1cf8-4872-9889-5fe5c55ed144", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jamee Decio", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -19.5779540207676, "margin_q05": -33.9414748643948, "margin_q95": -5.01693882779185, "win_prob_subject": 0.0133, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/bf53a5b3-1cf8-4872-9889-5fe5c55ed144" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-27", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c1b33e74-6e8e-450b-a013-73763e76c805", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "George Whitesides", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.1267829669848, "margin_q05": 8.00858054143913, "margin_q95": 38.2013851337876, "win_prob_subject": 0.99435, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c1b33e74-6e8e-450b-a013-73763e76c805" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-37", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c1d04975-c109-4e7f-9d77-edef98c47253", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Greg Casar", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 60.5642974734008, "margin_q05": 45.4940506633704, "margin_q95": 75.3523321740427, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c1d04975-c109-4e7f-9d77-edef98c47253" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-49", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c23cfdbf-9cc8-40d4-b61f-35f0be986646", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mike Levin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 24.2292041806103, "margin_q05": 9.10071246182128, "margin_q95": 39.1931299467905, "win_prob_subject": 0.9954, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c23cfdbf-9cc8-40d4-b61f-35f0be986646" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c2706afe-d829-43a7-ba91-8c7db46bed0e", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chaz Molder", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.51815600235469, "margin_q05": -21.6513799273974, "margin_q95": 8.64230845861004, "win_prob_subject": 0.2352, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c2706afe-d829-43a7-ba91-8c7db46bed0e" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c338edbe-bf05-4f7b-85e4-0a28f73fbbb6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ceretta Smith", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.4962979702094, "margin_q05": -24.9362163025683, "margin_q95": 3.71045193599781, "win_prob_subject": 0.1132, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c338edbe-bf05-4f7b-85e4-0a28f73fbbb6" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c3de1b7e-e210-4ab0-a434-4c7687a29f8d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "JoAnna Mendoza", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.91007268899624, "margin_q05": -12.4279847810994, "margin_q95": 16.1456489517531, "win_prob_subject": 0.58815, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c3de1b7e-e210-4ab0-a434-4c7687a29f8d" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c5ba59ee-5884-4c7c-a550-ebbfc5b94417", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Zyon Khalifa", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.77021362117575, "margin_q05": -22.9165221570227, "margin_q95": 5.4128108079181, "win_prob_subject": 0.15545, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c5ba59ee-5884-4c7c-a550-ebbfc5b94417" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-20", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c5cd9fdb-9cd8-489b-b710-dc6c8c6c371d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joaquin Castro", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 39.9399881416634, "margin_q05": 24.9857957257532, "margin_q95": 54.8783356986791, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c5cd9fdb-9cd8-489b-b710-dc6c8c6c371d" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c5debe95-56c5-40f6-9cbb-d132724757ef", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Suzan DelBene", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 39.4295133746496, "margin_q05": 25.2496202441725, "margin_q95": 53.7411182262413, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c5debe95-56c5-40f6-9cbb-d132724757ef" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c64cbee2-6395-4250-95c9-b37c2a6725bf", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Beth Farnham", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -33.6140058863443, "margin_q05": -47.8985371146252, "margin_q95": -19.3153702585004, "win_prob_subject": 5e-05, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c64cbee2-6395-4250-95c9-b37c2a6725bf" }, { "geo_id": "US-AK", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c662ab38-cdad-4e39-8602-eda9efe5391b", "run_id": "098cc12f-32d8-4120-9c0e-92e13979839e", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Mary Peltola", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.42082981325416, "margin_q05": -12.9301893402334, "margin_q95": 8.1462111249725, "win_prob_subject": 0.33518703875721, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c662ab38-cdad-4e39-8602-eda9efe5391b" }, { "geo_id": "US-AK", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "c662ab38-cdad-4e39-8602-eda9efe5391b", "run_id": "d95ef436-f0b0-476b-bb49-5f0638c92e76", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Mary Peltola", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.456798550107617, "margin_q05": -8.41418298478329, "margin_q95": 9.36873826571707, "win_prob_subject": 0.5371, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c662ab38-cdad-4e39-8602-eda9efe5391b" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c68b5981-121a-440b-bfe8-1c227c386442", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rebecca Bennett", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.89630977560924, "margin_q05": -10.6103746923218, "margin_q95": 18.4820330852581, "win_prob_subject": 0.6685, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c68b5981-121a-440b-bfe8-1c227c386442" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c6a686b3-da0e-4348-9c74-cd2c11736fd1", "run_id": "cc716b47-c96a-4132-ae85-013f14bb2a90", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Marquita Bradshaw", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.2413610837333, "margin_q05": -42.0956119207183, "margin_q95": -6.25982409804336, "win_prob_subject": 0.015199217404016419, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c6a686b3-da0e-4348-9c74-cd2c11736fd1" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "c6a686b3-da0e-4348-9c74-cd2c11736fd1", "run_id": "834d4bb4-16a8-414e-84a6-a7dd4565a8d6", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Marquita Bradshaw", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.0942052864228, "margin_q05": -41.9829998831072, "margin_q95": -8.15693990508606, "win_prob_subject": 0.00892, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c6a686b3-da0e-4348-9c74-cd2c11736fd1" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c82e5a86-01e3-4ef5-9b42-598c6c4d9a45", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Josh Harder", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.3197399235021, "margin_q05": 8.1817461055466, "margin_q95": 38.3117905197333, "win_prob_subject": 0.9944, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c82e5a86-01e3-4ef5-9b42-598c6c4d9a45" }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c83d2fc0-7c8a-442a-bc19-5656c3459e53", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Troy A. Carter Sr.", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 47.5363270293304, "margin_q05": 32.5774714488554, "margin_q95": 62.6455068188426, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c83d2fc0-7c8a-442a-bc19-5656c3459e53" }, { "geo_id": "US-NC-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c85d4c6c-d0b9-4c19-8075-6fff617dbcb3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Colby Watson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.0758112216469, "margin_q05": -27.4157320231728, "margin_q95": 3.19615525550723, "win_prob_subject": 0.09395, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c85d4c6c-d0b9-4c19-8075-6fff617dbcb3" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-26", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c8d47911-1bd2-46f9-a787-da103fef6bd0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Steven Shook", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.7569779070597, "margin_q05": -32.6304066505176, "margin_q95": -2.62999398586839, "win_prob_subject": 0.02705, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c8d47911-1bd2-46f9-a787-da103fef6bd0" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c975307c-c1d3-4862-a48e-e441a8e08d2c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Leticia Gutierrez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.5623297098489, "margin_q05": -27.5909921107505, "margin_q95": 2.61895712042064, "win_prob_subject": 0.08425, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c975307c-c1d3-4862-a48e-e441a8e08d2c" }, { "geo_id": "US-SC-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "c9a0832a-5946-449b-a92b-54ea6f326a5f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mallory Dittmer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.5084349826713, "margin_q05": -32.0258564473282, "margin_q95": -1.14297335931576, "win_prob_subject": 0.0396, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/c9a0832a-5946-449b-a92b-54ea6f326a5f" }, { "geo_id": "US-SD-AL", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ca34218c-e690-49c2-bda6-a9175bf59a46", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Nicole Gronli", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.3703054728112, "margin_q05": -32.0099196168854, "margin_q95": -0.933981852581494, "win_prob_subject": 0.0409, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ca34218c-e690-49c2-bda6-a9175bf59a46" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ca4a7730-86c9-4a23-86b7-ef1ae620ae69", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Melissa Bean", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.7555904248951, "margin_q05": 6.26583136702357, "margin_q95": 37.1680710623512, "win_prob_subject": 0.9903, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ca4a7730-86c9-4a23-86b7-ef1ae620ae69" }, { "geo_id": "US-VA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ca9d7b26-5da4-4c3e-bd49-7f2022458948", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Shannon Taylor", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.477074018953729, "margin_q05": -14.7656766430436, "margin_q95": 13.9618001153881, "win_prob_subject": 0.476, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ca9d7b26-5da4-4c3e-bd49-7f2022458948" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cb0c53fb-4dc5-431f-bd12-f364e735ef37", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bobby Pulido", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -0.590639744889443, "margin_q05": -15.5846790506696, "margin_q95": 14.7303360709717, "win_prob_subject": 0.4714, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cb0c53fb-4dc5-431f-bd12-f364e735ef37" }, { "geo_id": "US-AL-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cb78da93-3c72-4b9c-a14a-f76bbde24006", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Shomari Figures", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -1.3933355658099, "margin_q05": -16.4746767382874, "margin_q95": 13.6546082713701, "win_prob_subject": 0.4356, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cb78da93-3c72-4b9c-a14a-f76bbde24006" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cc0b1e66-9ec0-45b1-95c8-85503c71b414", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jake Johnson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -5.58193832539047, "margin_q05": -19.9828116920217, "margin_q95": 8.68018092127585, "win_prob_subject": 0.2595, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cc0b1e66-9ec0-45b1-95c8-85503c71b414" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cc917f4b-2a31-44ae-b0ec-9ccc86ddb475", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sharice Davids", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.5272970603754, "margin_q05": 9.3007215706536, "margin_q95": 37.6963318795797, "win_prob_subject": 0.9973, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cc917f4b-2a31-44ae-b0ec-9ccc86ddb475" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cccce4a3-513f-4b0f-bdf7-da9d3a9e153f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joe Courtney", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 25.3860430878923, "margin_q05": 11.0564042343236, "margin_q95": 39.7341187398091, "win_prob_subject": 0.9978, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cccce4a3-513f-4b0f-bdf7-da9d3a9e153f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NV-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cd815128-48cf-438c-846f-67f47219b637", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Steven Horsford", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 16.0584227760347, "margin_q05": 1.95825129175413, "margin_q95": 30.180854352391, "win_prob_subject": 0.9698, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cd815128-48cf-438c-846f-67f47219b637" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-16", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ce2ecd4b-d505-41f4-9ee6-aa5952762c76", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "George Latimer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.9278274714871, "margin_q05": 29.6790870678426, "margin_q95": 57.8991721729736, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ce2ecd4b-d505-41f4-9ee6-aa5952762c76" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ce6f2a26-0b60-4172-ac95-6d23db1e4f25", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sarah Elfreth", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 35.8638284902328, "margin_q05": 21.8410036022763, "margin_q95": 49.9025620215395, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ce6f2a26-0b60-4172-ac95-6d23db1e4f25" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-12", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cf2084d4-0807-419d-bdf1-ca6652382376", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kimberly Overman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.3883659196879, "margin_q05": -27.4953602414616, "margin_q95": 2.88893248690609, "win_prob_subject": 0.08875, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cf2084d4-0807-419d-bdf1-ca6652382376" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cf6721ba-f75d-464b-9544-6bc7714a3330", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Cynthia Wirth", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -21.3373567551131, "margin_q05": -35.6596910726582, "margin_q95": -7.11996808240597, "win_prob_subject": 0.0072, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cf6721ba-f75d-464b-9544-6bc7714a3330" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "cf795224-5f2c-4091-af6f-cea0bf749287", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Chrissy Houlahan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.0734370782071, "margin_q05": 9.19154438056439, "margin_q95": 37.326323185975, "win_prob_subject": 0.997, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/cf795224-5f2c-4091-af6f-cea0bf749287" }, { "geo_id": "US-MO-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d0600e46-a416-4c5a-a099-a9a135634df5", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Missi Hesketh", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -32.4819911754417, "margin_q05": -46.7359496939921, "margin_q95": -18.3186193478484, "win_prob_subject": 0.00015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d0600e46-a416-4c5a-a099-a9a135634df5" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d0dd2c5a-dc49-4f87-a4f2-cea9a238b402", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Fred Clark", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.9488801573509, "margin_q05": -28.594283213082, "margin_q95": 2.62779264014392, "win_prob_subject": 0.08475, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d0dd2c5a-dc49-4f87-a4f2-cea9a238b402" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d1a6a713-8d07-4528-9046-cd66ce3aa138", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bill Keating", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 25.5718898057846, "margin_q05": 11.2642426626622, "margin_q95": 39.9443406693611, "win_prob_subject": 0.99865, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d1a6a713-8d07-4528-9046-cd66ce3aa138" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d22c0aa0-e4a1-4f17-8b97-403531f7d436", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Morgan McGarvey", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 32.9158464469626, "margin_q05": 18.830469018122, "margin_q95": 46.9170763760135, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d22c0aa0-e4a1-4f17-8b97-403531f7d436" }, { "geo_id": "US-HI-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d265def7-de08-4a93-82de-d85a840e1831", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ed Case", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 40.451984296772, "margin_q05": 26.3147400655853, "margin_q95": 54.5877222531142, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d265def7-de08-4a93-82de-d85a840e1831" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-16", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d2785b08-9a8c-4fc2-9b04-7656f6cd4b8f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Veronica Escobar", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 26.7776666776619, "margin_q05": 11.5132517370133, "margin_q95": 41.9389537419855, "win_prob_subject": 0.9983, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d2785b08-9a8c-4fc2-9b04-7656f6cd4b8f" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d2c6c549-ad6b-4fbb-85e0-45068f61c615", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dan Schwartz", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.1645733538083, "margin_q05": -26.4125447619486, "margin_q95": 2.1777623186763, "win_prob_subject": 0.08015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d2c6c549-ad6b-4fbb-85e0-45068f61c615" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-15", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d35684fd-18bd-4411-8001-1e9c619ee453", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ritchie Torres", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 56.053867843194, "margin_q05": 41.8428205100504, "margin_q95": 70.2372094367842, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d35684fd-18bd-4411-8001-1e9c619ee453" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d3e27c8c-b970-4884-9256-c55dc1d6868f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Josh Gottheimer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.86624804016, "margin_q05": 7.72614069994404, "margin_q95": 35.9262046443804, "win_prob_subject": 0.9947, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d3e27c8c-b970-4884-9256-c55dc1d6868f" }, { "geo_id": "US-UT-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d4baa30f-be9d-4adb-b1f8-2634fe3f4565", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kent Udell", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -27.2033977239204, "margin_q05": -42.2692632881656, "margin_q95": -11.9344794090561, "win_prob_subject": 0.00135, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d4baa30f-be9d-4adb-b1f8-2634fe3f4565" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-20", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d4f39d75-4a2c-4ee9-a7e5-37606ddb2d14", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Debbie Wasserman Schultz", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 44.789370648053, "margin_q05": 29.6396627167412, "margin_q95": 59.8486056378645, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d4f39d75-4a2c-4ee9-a7e5-37606ddb2d14" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-45", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d5620488-ae59-442e-9f75-b3bbffe4aa67", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Derek Tran", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 13.8764353369299, "margin_q05": -1.26037863219501, "margin_q95": 28.9838406107767, "win_prob_subject": 0.93465, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d5620488-ae59-442e-9f75-b3bbffe4aa67" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-30", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d7c3c68a-8e23-4557-95e9-d67475dbeb15", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Frederick Haynes III", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 47.944474137649, "margin_q05": 32.9106120406695, "margin_q95": 63.1370056080889, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d7c3c68a-8e23-4557-95e9-d67475dbeb15" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-25", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d889e22b-b255-43de-852a-db12c7c43f8a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joseph Morelle", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 32.6272411702381, "margin_q05": 18.4858236347419, "margin_q95": 46.9028083681651, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d889e22b-b255-43de-852a-db12c7c43f8a" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d8f181af-f8a8-4f94-8b48-1a77c532dae4", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jahana Hayes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.2712422088312, "margin_q05": 9.11610834346189, "margin_q95": 37.3117530504803, "win_prob_subject": 0.9968, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d8f181af-f8a8-4f94-8b48-1a77c532dae4" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "d9b309e0-6163-4840-8046-4956fa7eefea", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kelly Esti", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.4843376940674, "margin_q05": -39.7771829962662, "margin_q95": -11.1706913974895, "win_prob_subject": 0.0017, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/d9b309e0-6163-4840-8046-4956fa7eefea" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-27", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "da585f6c-ee88-4b4a-9c0f-b60096272984", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Tanya Lloyd", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.1128404703069, "margin_q05": -31.1781604100701, "margin_q95": -0.859933802832902, "win_prob_subject": 0.04075, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/da585f6c-ee88-4b4a-9c0f-b60096272984" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "db141a53-1833-437c-8419-ea89a1d50aac", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Dwayne Romero", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -3.42717099487468, "margin_q05": -17.6038921989348, "margin_q95": 10.8684808379965, "win_prob_subject": 0.34695, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/db141a53-1833-437c-8419-ea89a1d50aac" }, { "geo_id": "US-IA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "db7ddd7b-50a4-4348-bb25-357b3c683ba7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Christina Bohannan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.25151365399159, "margin_q05": -10.990000330276, "margin_q95": 17.393789857779, "win_prob_subject": 0.64935, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/db7ddd7b-50a4-4348-bb25-357b3c683ba7" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "db831781-729a-47c1-8cfa-e887c5b79efc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Caitlin Rourk", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.6028251381396, "margin_q05": -30.8410666772875, "margin_q95": -0.652694579710209, "win_prob_subject": 0.04245, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/db831781-729a-47c1-8cfa-e887c5b79efc" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "dcca1b57-4960-4e4a-9dd2-2549b61f70d3", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Leela Gray", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.07166516268552, "margin_q05": -19.2181073674894, "margin_q95": 10.8982764474098, "win_prob_subject": 0.32865, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/dcca1b57-4960-4e4a-9dd2-2549b61f70d3" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ddacdb4b-4640-4267-99ee-abee4af9a061", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brian Shaver", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.2252711885492, "margin_q05": -32.2095467744426, "margin_q95": -2.07546534465045, "win_prob_subject": 0.0298, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ddacdb4b-4640-4267-99ee-abee4af9a061" }, { "geo_id": "US-VT-AL", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ddfdd947-36f7-4531-bb61-e44e50bb5381", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Becca Balint", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.700816569446, "margin_q05": 17.6267767098968, "margin_q95": 45.9518622933028, "win_prob_subject": 0.99985, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ddfdd947-36f7-4531-bb61-e44e50bb5381" }, { "geo_id": "US-MS-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "df095892-4554-4985-af0f-f0e18667f683", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bennie Thompson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.7642409273962, "margin_q05": 17.6570972064402, "margin_q95": 45.8791441810298, "win_prob_subject": 0.99985, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/df095892-4554-4985-af0f-f0e18667f683" }, { "geo_id": "US-KS-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "df903bf8-3d7e-49c1-9d2a-1ad2e1cb2432", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lauren Reinhold", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.421982481572, "margin_q05": -39.7014896028558, "margin_q95": -11.2001725040986, "win_prob_subject": 0.00135, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/df903bf8-3d7e-49c1-9d2a-1ad2e1cb2432" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-25", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "dfc5e71b-56d9-46c1-97f8-6ef274b5f6ad", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Raul Ruiz", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.1607434330086, "margin_q05": 5.92949123744003, "margin_q95": 36.4370442937778, "win_prob_subject": 0.9894, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/dfc5e71b-56d9-46c1-97f8-6ef274b5f6ad" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-16", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "dfd6d91e-18b8-4361-b610-582a736aeeb9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Paul Nolley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.9690505799948, "margin_q05": -31.3324213386737, "margin_q95": -2.56531685714098, "win_prob_subject": 0.0264, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/dfd6d91e-18b8-4361-b610-582a736aeeb9" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-50", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e3169688-0194-4149-a0ad-feb62cb314cd", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Scott Peters", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 28.8963356113107, "margin_q05": 13.8883922256015, "margin_q95": 43.8951534854878, "win_prob_subject": 0.9991, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e3169688-0194-4149-a0ad-feb62cb314cd" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-17", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e3c0a399-fea9-4e47-a389-e8cdbb304176", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Matthew Montavon", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -17.3286773055392, "margin_q05": -32.6417401881133, "margin_q95": -2.04674683501827, "win_prob_subject": 0.0306, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e3c0a399-fea9-4e47-a389-e8cdbb304176" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e55729d3-6d61-4f3f-9d41-c042bc7d5c15", "run_id": "7249717e-691c-4010-8691-578072634b85", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Abdul El-Sayed", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.44230033136623, "margin_q05": -9.12546871402434, "margin_q95": 12.1051399241695, "win_prob_subject": 0.597821684936861, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e55729d3-6d61-4f3f-9d41-c042bc7d5c15" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "e55729d3-6d61-4f3f-9d41-c042bc7d5c15", "run_id": "0e9635d1-6394-428f-be0c-f9a7dd4e354e", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Abdul El-Sayed", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 1.08772372531535, "margin_q05": -7.82496098246298, "margin_q95": 10.0360473439306, "win_prob_subject": 0.5888, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e55729d3-6d61-4f3f-9d41-c042bc7d5c15" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-46", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e59d0243-b6cb-4442-ac1b-52170dd7d573", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lou Correa", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 25.7649691773553, "margin_q05": 10.6214911832614, "margin_q95": 41.1575585918317, "win_prob_subject": 0.9978, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e59d0243-b6cb-4442-ac1b-52170dd7d573" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e5b50dd2-e94d-42a6-a701-a189fd25fe8d", "run_id": "f9057ae7-87ce-4af7-b2eb-69520acfc463", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.109384355321475, "margin_q05": -10.8351586407819, "margin_q95": 10.9652189861216, "win_prob_subject": 0.5077192193275661, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e5b50dd2-e94d-42a6-a701-a189fd25fe8d" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "e5b50dd2-e94d-42a6-a701-a189fd25fe8d", "run_id": "65747850-0373-4312-b9b6-fc9ca22f6c10", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -2.01692689949417, "margin_q05": -11.4435944024231, "margin_q95": 7.27479713243552, "win_prob_subject": 0.34798, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e5b50dd2-e94d-42a6-a701-a189fd25fe8d" }, { "geo_id": "US-WY-AL", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e5cf8faa-adb4-4e35-8271-2268b83c4784", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Lisa F. Kinney", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -32.4372706026042, "margin_q05": -47.7428985138015, "margin_q95": -16.9813275773187, "win_prob_subject": 0.00025, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e5cf8faa-adb4-4e35-8271-2268b83c4784" }, { "geo_id": "US-NH-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e5ebfbd7-253b-4a2e-aeff-b8cbcc064992", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Maggie Goodlander", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 17.4539572192272, "margin_q05": 3.17194543310201, "margin_q95": 31.9029767229452, "win_prob_subject": 0.9776, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e5ebfbd7-253b-4a2e-aeff-b8cbcc064992" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-13", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e5f210f9-6408-4e35-a8c1-c72c092f3af7", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jasmine Clark", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 50.3676302065876, "margin_q05": 34.9740578325572, "margin_q95": 65.8850609518786, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e5f210f9-6408-4e35-a8c1-c72c092f3af7" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e6189278-c5e8-4f14-ba0f-1eb51129392a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Joe Neguse", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 49.5139852415268, "margin_q05": 35.419545131767, "margin_q95": 63.6057959896866, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e6189278-c5e8-4f14-ba0f-1eb51129392a" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e62baf03-5e12-42c5-851a-8de8cfb30d14", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Donald Norcross", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 29.2070971908232, "margin_q05": 15.0286793963173, "margin_q95": 43.3805007724898, "win_prob_subject": 0.9996, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e62baf03-5e12-42c5-851a-8de8cfb30d14" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e6bd2c42-2593-4227-82b2-4f0a6cf9ebc2", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Sean Casten", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.9294895677173, "margin_q05": 7.45871859901796, "margin_q95": 36.2607119187575, "win_prob_subject": 0.9946, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e6bd2c42-2593-4227-82b2-4f0a6cf9ebc2" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e786ee20-fc8b-4c98-a9af-3ff32ea34dca", "run_id": "777cdaf9-a7b1-414d-a384-9145f8bd1515", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Maura Healey", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.2109370982872, "margin_q05": 12.1435605689782, "margin_q95": 34.2447315990722, "win_prob_subject": 0.9967505479859992, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e786ee20-fc8b-4c98-a9af-3ff32ea34dca" }, { "geo_id": "US-MA", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "e786ee20-fc8b-4c98-a9af-3ff32ea34dca", "run_id": "1b0cd334-d741-4e11-9d0b-dabf0e70aed0", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Maura Healey", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 21.8609388958617, "margin_q05": 12.2076130902271, "margin_q95": 31.3626201957824, "win_prob_subject": 0.99786, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e786ee20-fc8b-4c98-a9af-3ff32ea34dca" }, { "geo_id": "US-NV-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e79b312d-e035-4a90-8dc6-934e2620d68f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Susie Lee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 11.2166485851812, "margin_q05": -3.23743801581225, "margin_q95": 25.2554318218549, "win_prob_subject": 0.9029, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e79b312d-e035-4a90-8dc6-934e2620d68f" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e7d56aa1-67e3-46d6-9b70-ad828b3532ed", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Adam Smith", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 49.6307729855971, "margin_q05": 35.6392541395833, "margin_q95": 63.7580791218817, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e7d56aa1-67e3-46d6-9b70-ad828b3532ed" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e8288676-2e39-490b-92ea-e8a47eee248d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mark DeSaulnier", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 41.4032633214028, "margin_q05": 26.043464632689, "margin_q95": 56.8812951633334, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e8288676-2e39-490b-92ea-e8a47eee248d" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY", "office": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e836d85b-09d3-46b6-8181-4deee8f16ae9", "run_id": "5dc5a8dc-f814-459f-8a89-5ce660733aca", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Charles Booker", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.5397621578961, "margin_q05": -33.3940129948811, "margin_q95": 2.4417748277938, "win_prob_subject": 0.07673780730916813, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e836d85b-09d3-46b6-8181-4deee8f16ae9" }, { "geo_id": "US-KY", "office": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "e836d85b-09d3-46b6-8181-4deee8f16ae9", "run_id": "29cbe7bd-8342-422e-8e46-9eab59a7a580", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Charles Booker", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.0890031593257, "margin_q05": -31.9777977560102, "margin_q95": 1.84826222201095, "win_prob_subject": 0.07074, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e836d85b-09d3-46b6-8181-4deee8f16ae9" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e862b447-beff-4f9c-a18a-8cdd73060d63", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Rick Crosson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.2208626001385, "margin_q05": -24.4437427600841, "margin_q95": 3.87245115786269, "win_prob_subject": 0.11655, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e862b447-beff-4f9c-a18a-8cdd73060d63" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e8ec485c-3f97-40d9-ac7b-556a3a089c5f", "run_id": "b6edd7ff-ac98-4a47-822f-a91701a2fb8a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "David Crowley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 2.21265472756592, "margin_q05": -8.67850215077184, "margin_q95": 13.2100574725655, "win_prob_subject": 0.6433845504795693, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e8ec485c-3f97-40d9-ac7b-556a3a089c5f" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "e8ec485c-3f97-40d9-ac7b-556a3a089c5f", "run_id": "36257b81-3fae-4b56-b681-e778d935c92c", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "David Crowley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 2.06231048420577, "margin_q05": -7.38000011441774, "margin_q95": 11.5009443632212, "win_prob_subject": 0.65672, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e8ec485c-3f97-40d9-ac7b-556a3a089c5f" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e945636b-b116-457c-a8ad-15ccdf2e081b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Hank Johnson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 55.8088515481902, "margin_q05": 41.7460913267863, "margin_q95": 69.9157836682529, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e945636b-b116-457c-a8ad-15ccdf2e081b" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e97c6bb4-05e7-45ac-b4b5-644d50d032bc", "run_id": "97680b31-6fda-4c1d-82fa-bbc03fb094c4", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Kathy Hochul", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 12.3484918197211, "margin_q05": 1.40300989797083, "margin_q95": 23.2081768468553, "win_prob_subject": 0.9645753374173069, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e97c6bb4-05e7-45ac-b4b5-644d50d032bc" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "e97c6bb4-05e7-45ac-b4b5-644d50d032bc", "run_id": "fe0627c3-8f49-4b72-92b1-e344f1605e85", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Kathy Hochul", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 10.5750315174629, "margin_q05": 1.28649824704915, "margin_q95": 19.7968404957255, "win_prob_subject": 0.96548, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e97c6bb4-05e7-45ac-b4b5-644d50d032bc" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "e98f8a61-cb7f-4d00-b140-bfe68d0a2e25", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jason Crow", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.5249922275109, "margin_q05": 17.50556526761, "margin_q95": 45.5234443739679, "win_prob_subject": 0.99985, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/e98f8a61-cb7f-4d00-b140-bfe68d0a2e25" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "eaee2db4-1b19-444c-8bdc-98920961aa97", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Callie Barr", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.3556285500521, "margin_q05": -29.9582817723753, "margin_q95": -0.944149153160835, "win_prob_subject": 0.0386, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/eaee2db4-1b19-444c-8bdc-98920961aa97" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA-14", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "eb34998c-f138-47cc-b283-3f332cabb41c", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Alan Bradstock", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.3382595915705, "margin_q05": -37.6657132148928, "margin_q95": -9.05198282775709, "win_prob_subject": 0.0034, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/eb34998c-f138-47cc-b283-3f332cabb41c" }, { "geo_id": "US-ME", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ebeb90b7-228d-4879-bdb1-8dbfbdab1d12", "run_id": "c30c0425-02c3-4f4d-8640-2350f19ea39e", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Hannah Pingree", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 10.3888554617399, "margin_q05": -0.2533561650582, "margin_q95": 21.0956519880189, "win_prob_subject": 0.947106246298524, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ebeb90b7-228d-4879-bdb1-8dbfbdab1d12" }, { "geo_id": "US-ME", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "ebeb90b7-228d-4879-bdb1-8dbfbdab1d12", "run_id": "ed20daed-fd01-4351-a9e9-bb27a4b3fda9", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Hannah Pingree", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 10.4837820213107, "margin_q05": 1.5369224222012, "margin_q95": 19.4404340044229, "win_prob_subject": 0.96812, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ebeb90b7-228d-4879-bdb1-8dbfbdab1d12" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ec10e707-b912-4a45-8ea3-07bed1bc9c93", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Luke Bronin", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 37.0658548964687, "margin_q05": 21.5806664891385, "margin_q95": 52.4377466070918, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ec10e707-b912-4a45-8ea3-07bed1bc9c93" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-24", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ee5e589a-ed08-4ecb-9260-1b4bbd0890dc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Salud Carbajal", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 33.8870952965956, "margin_q05": 18.7473349977401, "margin_q95": 49.0253698971853, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ee5e589a-ed08-4ecb-9260-1b4bbd0890dc" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ee8d07c5-2fe1-47e1-87b1-a358d5de6dea", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Caitlyn Gegan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.7163851660331, "margin_q05": -39.1721517855442, "margin_q95": -10.3938432508653, "win_prob_subject": 0.0019, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ee8d07c5-2fe1-47e1-87b1-a358d5de6dea" }, { "geo_id": "US-OK-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f041ba81-b8c7-425b-8e51-71fc67df6674", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mitchell Jacob", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -26.3148642341006, "margin_q05": -40.732729377624, "margin_q95": -12.017567856673, "win_prob_subject": 0.0015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f041ba81-b8c7-425b-8e51-71fc67df6674" }, { "geo_id": "US-OH-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f0c09c65-5403-4695-b688-e2eabeaf1fcb", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Elizabeth Kirtley", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.7733402424566, "margin_q05": -40.0987999571796, "margin_q95": -9.56903451867918, "win_prob_subject": 0.0032, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f0c09c65-5403-4695-b688-e2eabeaf1fcb" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-31", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f0e436f7-58db-43c5-ba76-eecdf64a20f0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Justin Early", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -13.6303044949586, "margin_q05": -28.996543844213, "margin_q95": 1.51135468242862, "win_prob_subject": 0.06865, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f0e436f7-58db-43c5-ba76-eecdf64a20f0" }, { "geo_id": "US-WY", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f109a99a-9f70-471c-9ba7-f78afc04af33", "run_id": "f56df86a-f4a2-4184-8e8c-a42df92d5e19", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:25:42Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Kenneth Casner", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -38.0368563361545, "margin_q05": -59.6447679838775, "margin_q95": -16.4289446884315, "win_prob_subject": 0.0018929557518681723, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f109a99a-9f70-471c-9ba7-f78afc04af33" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f141e77c-b6bd-4448-9143-bafcfbca5e02", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Evan Hunt", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -16.5812084790474, "margin_q05": -31.6602153338477, "margin_q95": -1.45394767724398, "win_prob_subject": 0.0347, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f141e77c-b6bd-4448-9143-bafcfbca5e02" }, { "geo_id": "US-CO-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f174734e-f9ab-4807-9710-e6712c594fe8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Eileen Laubacher", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -12.2355630138702, "margin_q05": -26.2852268242819, "margin_q95": 1.98631780901803, "win_prob_subject": 0.07755, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f174734e-f9ab-4807-9710-e6712c594fe8" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f1e75df5-043c-4e32-91c4-34102efa0396", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brad Meyer", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -23.7382602981324, "margin_q05": -38.0442221646624, "margin_q95": -9.27207871709154, "win_prob_subject": 0.0028, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f1e75df5-043c-4e32-91c4-34102efa0396" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f1fabcfd-1ffc-4cde-9021-cbc9067e1f3b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Danny Minton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -15.4509020660496, "margin_q05": -30.5164657905491, "margin_q95": -0.214680850201723, "win_prob_subject": 0.04805, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f1fabcfd-1ffc-4cde-9021-cbc9067e1f3b" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f276ad21-7bda-4646-94f7-ea0e9185f9f9", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jonathan Nez", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -6.14441911173239, "margin_q05": -20.3119921498532, "margin_q95": 8.08699898872189, "win_prob_subject": 0.24015, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f276ad21-7bda-4646-94f7-ea0e9185f9f9" }, { "geo_id": "US-GA-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f2892584-cf12-4c8a-a027-6f75367212c6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Anthony Kozycki", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.9073632297023, "margin_q05": -26.0205704091466, "margin_q95": 2.27523295161168, "win_prob_subject": 0.08135, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f2892584-cf12-4c8a-a027-6f75367212c6" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f2a623b0-ca91-4432-a4df-af3dcb984d97", "run_id": "29d4192a-34ec-4c95-abcd-afe0205aa02a", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Josh Shapiro", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.3327139124564, "margin_q05": 8.56638496885489, "margin_q95": 30.2114027117838, "win_prob_subject": 0.9924831906061595, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f2a623b0-ca91-4432-a4df-af3dcb984d97" }, { "geo_id": "US-PA", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "f2a623b0-ca91-4432-a4df-af3dcb984d97", "run_id": "88de8d67-8b5b-4111-9059-bde9e4dac2be", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Josh Shapiro", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 20.3460435992695, "margin_q05": 11.1302505140164, "margin_q95": 29.5698884462641, "win_prob_subject": 0.99742, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f2a623b0-ca91-4432-a4df-af3dcb984d97" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f33374b8-998e-4abb-9b79-246a7365adef", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "LaMonica McIver", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 54.7035816207086, "margin_q05": 40.6031341746728, "margin_q95": 69.2186887424135, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f33374b8-998e-4abb-9b79-246a7365adef" }, { "geo_id": "US-MD-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f334c653-d462-4d5b-8e41-8635535aa6dc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Glenn Ivey", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 74.2052317011583, "margin_q05": 60.0039990528926, "margin_q95": 88.3802859419321, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f334c653-d462-4d5b-8e41-8635535aa6dc" }, { "geo_id": "US-NJ-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f3604a37-2f4f-4220-86fa-bffac17275f0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Analilia Mejia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 26.1860974510848, "margin_q05": 11.8356312166063, "margin_q95": 40.5251340628052, "win_prob_subject": 0.99905, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f3604a37-2f4f-4220-86fa-bffac17275f0" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f3d15756-ebb4-4e2b-abe3-20284b34a6ce", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brad Schneider", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 31.4749381591588, "margin_q05": 17.3453949065748, "margin_q95": 45.9909706821411, "win_prob_subject": 0.9999, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f3d15756-ebb4-4e2b-abe3-20284b34a6ce" }, { "geo_id": "US-IN-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f45624f7-fff2-40db-9ce5-e96f02be2350", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Drew Cox", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -22.4057030254821, "margin_q05": -36.5441245052123, "margin_q95": -8.02013384187302, "win_prob_subject": 0.0044, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f45624f7-fff2-40db-9ce5-e96f02be2350" }, { "geo_id": "US-WI-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f507bd9b-6a54-42e2-8d1f-1aebb48cd01f", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Mitchell Berman", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -4.18199835147477, "margin_q05": -18.4241935911758, "margin_q95": 9.99380203688253, "win_prob_subject": 0.31535, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f507bd9b-6a54-42e2-8d1f-1aebb48cd01f" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-10", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f516ba25-73f5-428d-86ef-89da7b0cbf37", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Brad Lander", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 70.5797497257466, "margin_q05": 54.9761067511224, "margin_q95": 86.0461991189154, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f516ba25-73f5-428d-86ef-89da7b0cbf37" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f56b10b1-6545-4be3-ad25-c0f3df199bb1", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Richard Pan", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 0.0, "margin_q05": -15.7762601569907, "margin_q95": 15.5399626340895, "win_prob_subject": 0.50475, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f56b10b1-6545-4be3-ad25-c0f3df199bb1" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-19", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f5a7a5ee-ee92-48f4-88d1-bb39d4e21108", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kyle Rable", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -40.7382157715252, "margin_q05": -55.8268289610944, "margin_q95": -25.8667834335038, "win_prob_subject": 0.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f5a7a5ee-ee92-48f4-88d1-bb39d4e21108" }, { "geo_id": "US-WV-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f6dc0c4c-3403-41fc-880d-cf437b196a6d", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Ace Parsi", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -31.3822422985284, "margin_q05": -45.6317730337724, "margin_q95": -17.2799313011213, "win_prob_subject": 0.0001, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f6dc0c4c-3403-41fc-880d-cf437b196a6d" }, { "geo_id": "US-TN-9", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f701dcae-3f90-4c93-9615-7c7e3c667846", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Justin J. Pearson", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -8.446317216986, "margin_q05": -23.5565654830156, "margin_q95": 6.3144073651366, "win_prob_subject": 0.17875, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f701dcae-3f90-4c93-9615-7c7e3c667846" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f7ab6f16-82ed-4a75-bb5f-151127933d64", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jeremy Moss", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 30.0663013055286, "margin_q05": 14.877111234053, "margin_q95": 45.5687288973478, "win_prob_subject": 0.99935, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f7ab6f16-82ed-4a75-bb5f-151127933d64" }, { "geo_id": "US-FL-7", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f8926559-9aba-4395-b5f8-fade774469c0", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bale Dalton", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 3.5032932425016, "margin_q05": -11.5750823882309, "margin_q95": 18.7912978356423, "win_prob_subject": 0.646, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f8926559-9aba-4395-b5f8-fade774469c0" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN", "office": "governor", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "f8d3319f-a225-4ac2-82bc-411dd876e1b0", "run_id": "dd71f5c9-17ff-4e13-a328-588c3c203379", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Amy Klobuchar", "subject_party": "DFL", "expected_margin": 9.25850901545286, "margin_q05": -2.08124584847193, "margin_q95": 20.5946985362296, "win_prob_subject": 0.9162002040169729, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f8d3319f-a225-4ac2-82bc-411dd876e1b0" }, { "geo_id": "US-MN", "office": "governor", "kind": "nowcast", "race_id": "f8d3319f-a225-4ac2-82bc-411dd876e1b0", "run_id": "7a3e6d1c-6c65-4bef-ae37-5fe1eee131ea", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "single_race_latent/0.8.2", "subject": "Amy Klobuchar", "subject_party": "DFL", "expected_margin": 8.2490472728675, "margin_q05": -1.68408881036155, "margin_q95": 17.9328793788363, "win_prob_subject": 0.91966, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/f8d3319f-a225-4ac2-82bc-411dd876e1b0" }, { "geo_id": "US-IL-2", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fad99887-3146-466b-95aa-202656360277", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Donna Miller", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 42.9246160451162, "margin_q05": 27.2107106305798, "margin_q95": 58.4326963830535, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fad99887-3146-466b-95aa-202656360277" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-42", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fafbb75c-d885-4683-98c7-775cca1e6e92", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Robert Garcia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 23.5159758105064, "margin_q05": 8.47661607415995, "margin_q95": 38.6273096833294, "win_prob_subject": 0.9947, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fafbb75c-d885-4683-98c7-775cca1e6e92" }, { "geo_id": "US-CA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fb9d5bd7-89cc-4591-aae3-9eb4f0907b70", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "John Garamendi", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 43.4758400664729, "margin_q05": 28.3336648602126, "margin_q95": 58.6479854775597, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fb9d5bd7-89cc-4591-aae3-9eb4f0907b70" }, { "geo_id": "US-TX-18", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fbfefc47-16fb-4dcb-81b1-4df2698af44b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Christian Menefee", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 56.8266702726289, "margin_q05": 41.9664984437468, "margin_q95": 71.8204145492397, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fbfefc47-16fb-4dcb-81b1-4df2698af44b" }, { "geo_id": "US-MI-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fc3736aa-9d00-4c75-b73d-f54406ead8d8", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kristen McDonald Rivet", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 15.7480038570657, "margin_q05": 1.47792809614302, "margin_q95": 29.9394124025304, "win_prob_subject": 0.96515, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fc3736aa-9d00-4c75-b73d-f54406ead8d8" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-11", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fc42b8c8-15f5-4053-99f5-02da06459e38", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Michael DeCillis", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -18.7484502765616, "margin_q05": -32.9203505461684, "margin_q95": -4.64937704884791, "win_prob_subject": 0.01665, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fc42b8c8-15f5-4053-99f5-02da06459e38" }, { "geo_id": "US-WA-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fd046b9a-aeb6-4c7e-8244-82bc95fd03e6", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Kim Schrier", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 19.9323905926926, "margin_q05": 5.85588054736651, "margin_q95": 34.0650256381536, "win_prob_subject": 0.9887, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fd046b9a-aeb6-4c7e-8244-82bc95fd03e6" }, { "geo_id": "US-AZ-8", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fd175906-a3f9-446e-8eab-6d91134dd3bc", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Bernadette Greene-Placentia", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -11.484810284258, "margin_q05": -25.781840928704, "margin_q95": 2.58016029266446, "win_prob_subject": 0.0913, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fd175906-a3f9-446e-8eab-6d91134dd3bc" }, { "geo_id": "US-NY-26", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "ffcffb8a-c43b-4ada-afbb-0e1e785b076b", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Tim Kennedy", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 35.2543715530587, "margin_q05": 21.1334130100433, "margin_q95": 49.3618852762348, "win_prob_subject": 1.0, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/ffcffb8a-c43b-4ada-afbb-0e1e785b076b" }, { "geo_id": "US-CT-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "race_id": "fff50c15-1183-412d-99b7-42f96eccb69a", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Jim Himes", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": 33.9890463257237, "margin_q05": 19.6467172358758, "margin_q95": 47.9846950626284, "win_prob_subject": 0.99995, "page": "https://futureballot.com/races/fff50c15-1183-412d-99b7-42f96eccb69a" }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-1", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -33.73, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0001, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-3", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -26.09, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.002, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-4", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -24.16, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0048, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-5", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -25.62, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.0032, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null }, { "geo_id": "US-LA-6", "office": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_district_prior/0.6.0", "subject": "Democratic Party", "subject_party": "D", "expected_margin": -10.14, "margin_q05": null, "margin_q95": null, "win_prob_subject": 0.1332, "note": "all-party ballot: the chance is which party wins the seat", "race_id": null, "page": null } ], "chambers": [ { "chamber": "governors", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "c1ff8798-dd65-4a7f-80af-e2376b5b3ac0", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "governor_chamber/0.4.1", "status": "research", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.56236, "republican": 0.43764000000000003, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 25.92092, "quantiles": { "0.1": 22.0, "0.5": 26.0, "0.9": 30.0, "0.05": 21.0, "0.25": 24.0, "0.75": 28.0, "0.95": 31.0 } }, { "chamber": "governors", "kind": "nowcast", "run_id": "81b60acf-5477-4f2c-bef8-845689e678de", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "governor_chamber/0.4.1", "status": "research", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.48518, "republican": 0.51482, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 25.41516, "quantiles": { "0.1": 21.0, "0.5": 25.0, "0.9": 29.0, "0.05": 20.0, "0.25": 23.0, "0.75": 27.0, "0.95": 31.0 } }, { "chamber": "house", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "a8823f83-a01d-40e2-8b8e-f11b0cc98a8e", "as_of": "2026-10-10T07:00:18Z", "model": "house_ground_up/2.4.0", "status": "champion", "control_prob": { "available": true, "democratic": 0.93925, "republican": 0.06074999999999997, "withheld_reason": null }, "mean_seats": 236.77375, "quantiles": { "0.1": 221.0, "0.5": 236.0, "0.9": 254.0, "0.05": 217.0, "0.25": 227.0, "0.75": 245.0, "0.95": 260.0 } }, { "chamber": "senate", "kind": "election_day", "run_id": "b02e8125-6447-4d11-a58e-967b313527ee", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "senate_chamber/0.4.2", "status": "research", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.36538, "democratic_high": 0.4501, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.365 and 0.450, depending on 4 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 4 }, "mean_seats": 49.48612, "quantiles": { "0.1": 46.0, "0.5": 50.0, "0.9": 53.0, "0.05": 45.0, "0.25": 48.0, "0.75": 51.0, "0.95": 54.0 } }, { "chamber": "senate", "kind": "nowcast", "run_id": "0af0eb45-89f6-4b5f-83cf-761f730b36f8", "as_of": "2026-10-11T05:11:18Z", "model": "senate_chamber/0.4.2", "status": "research", "control_prob": { "available": false, "democratic": null, "republican": null, "democratic_low": 0.4343, "democratic_high": 0.49668, "withheld_reason": "P(Democratic control) is between 0.434 and 0.497, depending on 4 seat(s) that could be won by an independent whose caucus is not recorded. A point estimate would be a guess about a person.", "unrecorded_seats": 4 }, "mean_seats": 49.83314, "quantiles": { "0.1": 46.0, "0.5": 50.0, "0.9": 54.0, "0.05": 44.0, "0.25": 48.0, "0.75": 52.0, "0.95": 55.0 } } ] }