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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Tennessee GovernorOct 25–26, 2026GOTV Polling
for Hatley
1196 Blackburn 35 (R) · Green 30 (D) · Hatley 26 (I)R+5Checked release
Tennessee GovernorOct 10–15, 2026Spry Strategies635 LVBlackburn 44 (R) · Green 32 (D) · Hatley 12 (I)R+12Checked release
TN-5Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026Impact Research
for Molder's campaign
partisan sponsor
552 LVHatcher 46 (R) · Molder 41 (D)R+5Not checked yet release
Tennessee GovernorSep 9–12, 2026TargetSmart
for The Progress Fund
partisan sponsor
600 LVBlackburn 45 (R) · Green 36 (D) · Hatley 10 (I) · Pinkston 2 (I)R+9Checked release
TN-9Sep 1–3, 2026Hart Researchpartisan sponsor400 LVTaylor 48 (R) · Pearson 44 (D)R+4No citation
Tennessee GovernorAug 15–26, 2026Targoz Market Research
for Beacon Center of Tennessee
1149 RVBlackburn 46 (R) · Green 33 (D)R+13Checked release
Tennessee SenateAug 15–26, 2026Targoz Market Research
for Beacon Center of Tennessee
1157 RVHagerty 51 (R) · Bradshaw 31 (D)R+20Checked release
TN-5Aug 19–24, 2026Impact Researchpartisan sponsor500 LVHatcher 48 (R) · Molder 40 (D)R+8Checked release
Tennessee GovernorApr 20–27, 2026Targoz Market Research
for Beacon Center of Tennessee
1200 RVBlackburn 51 (R) · Green 27 (D)R+24Checked
Tennessee GovernorAug 5–7, 2025Quantus Insights600 RVBlackburn 49 (R) · Green 28 (D)R+21Checked

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Tennessee Governor6Oct 26, 2026R+8 (2)R+11Tennessee Governor forecast
Tennessee Senate1Aug 26, 2026R+20 (1)R+22Tennessee Senate forecast
TN-91Sep 3, 2026R+4 (1)—TN-9 forecast
TN-52Oct 1, 2026R+5 (1)—TN-5 forecast