Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Governor | Oct 25–26, 2026 | GOTV Polling for Hatley | 1196 | Blackburn 35 (R) · Green 30 (D) · Hatley 26 (I) | R+5 | Checked release |
| Tennessee Governor | Oct 10–15, 2026 | Spry Strategies | 635 LV | Blackburn 44 (R) · Green 32 (D) · Hatley 12 (I) | R+12 | Checked release |
| TN-5 | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | Impact Research for Molder's campaign partisan sponsor | 552 LV | Hatcher 46 (R) · Molder 41 (D) | R+5 | Not checked yet release |
| Tennessee Governor | Sep 9–12, 2026 | TargetSmart for The Progress Fund partisan sponsor | 600 LV | Blackburn 45 (R) · Green 36 (D) · Hatley 10 (I) · Pinkston 2 (I) | R+9 | Checked release |
| TN-9 | Sep 1–3, 2026 | Hart Researchpartisan sponsor | 400 LV | Taylor 48 (R) · Pearson 44 (D) | R+4 | No citation |
| Tennessee Governor | Aug 15–26, 2026 | Targoz Market Research for Beacon Center of Tennessee | 1149 RV | Blackburn 46 (R) · Green 33 (D) | R+13 | Checked release |
| Tennessee Senate | Aug 15–26, 2026 | Targoz Market Research for Beacon Center of Tennessee | 1157 RV | Hagerty 51 (R) · Bradshaw 31 (D) | R+20 | Checked release |
| TN-5 | Aug 19–24, 2026 | Impact Researchpartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Hatcher 48 (R) · Molder 40 (D) | R+8 | Checked release |
| Tennessee Governor | Apr 20–27, 2026 | Targoz Market Research for Beacon Center of Tennessee | 1200 RV | Blackburn 51 (R) · Green 27 (D) | R+24 | Checked |
| Tennessee Governor | Aug 5–7, 2025 | Quantus Insights | 600 RV | Blackburn 49 (R) · Green 28 (D) | R+21 | Checked |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Governor | 6 | Oct 26, 2026 | R+8 (2) | R+11 | Tennessee Governor forecast |
| Tennessee Senate | 1 | Aug 26, 2026 | R+20 (1) | R+22 | Tennessee Senate forecast |
| TN-9 | 1 | Sep 3, 2026 | R+4 (1) | — | TN-9 forecast |
| TN-5 | 2 | Oct 1, 2026 | R+5 (1) | — | TN-5 forecast |