Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › New Hampshire House

New Hampshire House District Cheshire 8

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Christine L. Parshall (D)

New Hampshire House District Cheshire 8: Decided: only a Democrat is runningNew Hampshire House Cheshire 1: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+31New Hampshire House Cheshire 10: chance of a Democratic win 56%; 2024 president R+5New Hampshire House Cheshire 12: chance of a Democratic win 27%; 2024 president R+14New Hampshire House Cheshire 13: chance of a Democratic win 78%; 2024 president D+4New Hampshire House Cheshire 15: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+25New Hampshire House Cheshire 16: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+20New Hampshire House Cheshire 17: chance of a Democratic win 7%; 2024 president R+9New Hampshire House Cheshire 18: chance of a Democratic win 29%; 2024 president R+10New Hampshire House Cheshire 7: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+37New Hampshire House Cheshire 9: chance of a Democratic win 42%; 2024 president D+2New Hampshire House Hillsborough 30: chance of a Democratic win 15%; 2024 president R+12New Hampshire House Hillsborough 31: chance of a Democratic win 94%; 2024 president D+18New Hampshire House Hillsborough 33: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+37New Hampshire House District Cheshire 8: Decided: only a Democrat is runningCheshire 12Hillsborough 33Cheshire 18Cheshire 9Cheshire 15Cheshire 17Cheshire 16Cheshire 8
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District Cheshire 8 is safe Democratic. Of its 13 neighbouring districts, 7 favour Democrats, 4 favour Republicans, 2 are competitive.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesChristine L. Parshall (D)
Candidate list fromcivic guide
Current memberLucius Parshall

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+22
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNew Hampshire
Median household income$86,797$95,628
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)42%40%
Median age4743
White (not Hispanic)94%88%
Black0%1%
Hispanic1%5%
Asian1%3%
Born abroad2%6%
Jobs in manufacturing20%13%
Jobs in farming or mining1%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.