Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland Governor | Sep 22–27, 2026 | University of Maryland, Baltimore County | 776 LV | Moore 51 (D) · Cox 24 (R) | D+27 | Checked release |
| Maryland Governor | Jul 27–Aug 3, 2026 | Zenith Research for Maryland Now (Blended Public Affairs, Perry Jacobson) | 800 LV | Moore 58 (D) · Cox 31 (R) | D+27 | Release found release |
| MD-1 | Jul 23–27, 2026 | Z to A Researchpartisan sponsor | 482 LV | Harris 52 (R) · Schwartz 39 (D) | R+13 | Citation unreadable release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland Governor | 2 | Sep 27, 2026 | D+27 (1) | D+30 | Maryland Governor forecast |
| MD-1 | 1 | Jul 27, 2026 | R+13 (1) | — | MD-1 forecast |