Results · Forecast and count so far

Our Forecast Against the Count So Far

Of the 183 races drawn, the margin in the count so far is inside the forecast's 90% range in 135 and outside it in forty-eight

Each row is a 2026 race that has a count so far: the band is the range FutureBallot's final forecast gave for the margin, the tick its expected margin, and the dot the margin in the count so far. Of the 488 races in the final forecast, 277 have a count so far: ninety-eight from states' official results feeds, forty entered by hand from official results pages, and 139 from Wikipedia article pages. The counts are unofficial and still being reported; they are not FutureBallot's stored results and will change. FutureBallot does not call races. Senate: nineteen inside, three outside. Governor: twenty-seven inside, three outside. House: eighty-nine inside, forty-two outside. The Alaska governor race, the Alaska House race, and the Alaska Senate race are not drawn: Alaska decides them by ranked choice, and each count so far is of first choices only. Forty races read from Wikipedia are not drawn because, in each race, the figures read cite a news organization rather than an official source. One race read from Wikipedia is not drawn because the official page its figures cite is not a results page. Fifty races read from Wikipedia are not drawn because no reporting percentage is stated for the figures read. For eight races, the Wikipedia figures are not used because they repeat another election's result shown on each race's own page.

Counts as of November 5, 2026, 2:32 PM Pacific: Wikipedia pages read then, official feeds as FutureBallot last read each, and figures entered by hand as of the time each official page was read (every row's time is in the CSV); forecast frozen November 2, 2026. The figures for forty races were entered by hand from an official results page read November 5, 2026, 3:40 AM Pacific.

Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.

How to read it. Within each office panel, races are sorted by the forecast's expected margin: the race whose tick is furthest left on that panel's scale comes first, at the top, and the race furthest right comes last. The House panel's order runs down each column, then on to the next column. The forecast's expected margin is the model's expected gap between the two forecast candidates, in percentage points. The count margin is the gap between their shares of the votes counted, in percentage points; other candidates' votes stay in the total when the source lists them. The band runs from the 5th to the 95th percentile of the forecast's simulated margins; the tick is the expected margin; the dot is the margin in the count so far, colored by which of the two forecast candidates is ahead of the other, and ringed when it falls outside the band. Where a Wikipedia page gives figures only for some candidates, the total is theirs alone, which can make the margin larger than on all votes; the CSV marks these rows. Bands and dots beyond the edge of a panel's scale are cut at the edge. In these races — the Rhode Island governor race and the CA-6 House race — neither of the two forecast candidates was a Republican, and the Democrat is on the right.

Source. FutureBallot's final forecast, frozen on November 2, 2026, the day before Election Day (election-day model). Counts: states' official results feeds as read by FutureBallot; official results pages read in a browser, their figures entered by hand; and Wikipedia article pages, read November 5, 2026, 2:32 PM Pacific. For each drawn race, the CSV gives the source, its reporting share and link where the source provides them, and the time it was read. Drawn November 5, 2026, 3:07 PM Pacific.

Link to this chartChart image pageDownload the data (CSV)Free to republish with credit to FutureBallot.