Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota Senate | Oct 22–26, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | 448 LV | Bengs 43 (I) · Rounds 41 (R) | Bengs+2 | Checked release |
| South Dakota Senate | Oct 19–20, 2026 | Emerson College | 803 LV | Rounds 50 (R) · Bengs 42 (I) | Rounds+8 | Not checked yet release |
| South Dakota Senate | Oct 17–19, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 633 LV | Rounds 57 (R) · Bengs 37 (I) | Rounds+20 | Not checked yet release |
| South Dakota Senate | Oct 12–16, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies for Rounds' campaign partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Rounds 54 (R) · Bengs 37 (I) | Rounds+17 | Not checked yet release |
| South Dakota Senate | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota | 500 RV | Rounds 56 (R) · Bengs 37 (I) | Rounds+19 | Checked release |
| South Dakota Governor | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for South Dakota News Watch & Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota | 500 LV | Rhoden 56 (R) · Ahlers 36 (D) | R+20 | Checked release |
| SD-AL | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota | 500 LV | Jackley 60 (R) · Gronli 32 (D) | R+28 | Checked release |
| South Dakota Senate | Oct 6–8, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education Reform | 400 LV | Bengs 43 (I) · Rounds 42 (R) | Bengs+1 | Checked release |
| South Dakota Governor | Oct 6–8, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education Reform | 400 LV | Rhoden 48 (R) · Ahlers 38 (D) | R+10 | Disputed release |
| South Dakota Senate | Sep 24–27, 2026 | Zenith Research for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 500 LV | Rounds 44 (R) · Bengs 38 (I) | Rounds+6 | Checked release |
| South Dakota Senate | Sep 8–9, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 629 RV | Rounds 45 (R) · Bengs 42 (I) | Rounds+3 | Citation unreadable release |
| South Dakota Senate | Aug 26–30, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for Nikki Gronli for U.S. House campaign internal | 500 LV | Bengs 51 (I) · Rounds 42 (R) | Bengs+9 | Checked release |
| SD-AL | Aug 26–30, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for Gronli's campaign partisan sponsor | — | Jackley 47 (R) · Gronli 43 (D) | R+4 | Not checked yet release |
| South Dakota Senate | Aug 13–17, 2026 | Impact Research for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 500 LV | Bengs 44 (I) · Rounds 44 (R) | Even | Checked release |
| South Dakota Senate | Jul 6–9, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies for NRSC partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Rounds 56 (R) · Bengs 33 (I) | Rounds+23 | Checked release |
| South Dakota Senate | May 29–30, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 726 RV | Rounds 44 (R) · Bengs 40 (I) | Rounds+4 | Release found release |
| South Dakota Senate | Feb 17–18, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 685 RV | Rounds 47 (R) · Bengs 35 (I) | Rounds+12 | Release found release |
| South Dakota Senate | Nov 13–14, 2025 | Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 814 RV | Rounds 44 (R) · Bengs 31 (I) | Rounds+13 | Release found |
| South Dakota Senate | Jul 30–Aug 1, 2025 | Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs for Senate campaign internal | 522 LV | Rounds 41 (R) · Bengs 28 (I) | Rounds+13 | Citation unreadable release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota Senate | 15 | Oct 26, 2026 | R+10 (7) | R+8 | South Dakota Senate forecast |
| South Dakota Governor | 2 | Oct 14, 2026 | R+15 (2) | R+17 | South Dakota Governor forecast |
| SD-AL | 2 | Oct 14, 2026 | R+28 (1) | — | SD-AL forecast |