Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Governor | Oct 2–22, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Pritzker 59 (D) · Bailey 41 (R) | D+18 | Checked release |
| Illinois Senate | Sep 26–Oct 20, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Stratton 58 (D) · Tracy 42 (R) | D+17 | Checked release |
| Illinois Governor | Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | 569 LV | Pritzker 54 (D) · Bailey 34 (R) | D+20 | Checked release |
| Illinois Senate | Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | 569 LV | Stratton 49 (D) · Tracy 36 (R) | D+13 | Checked release |
| IL-4 | Jul 31–Aug 1, 2026 | Independent Center Voice | 653 RV | Garcia 34 (D) · Castillo 15 (R) · Getty 9 (I) | D+19 | Checked release |
| Illinois Governor | Nov 20–24, 2025 | Victory Research | 1208 LV | Pritzker 54 (D) · Bailey 34 (R) | D+20 | Checked release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Senate | 2 | Oct 20, 2026 | D+15 (2) | D+17 | Illinois Senate forecast |
| Illinois Governor | 3 | Oct 22, 2026 | D+19 (2) | D+21 | Illinois Governor forecast |
| IL-4 | 1 | Aug 1, 2026 | D+19 (1) | — | IL-4 forecast |