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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Illinois GovernorOct 2–22, 2026ActiVote400 LVPritzker 59 (D) · Bailey 41 (R)D+18Checked release
Illinois SenateSep 26–Oct 20, 2026ActiVote400 LVStratton 58 (D) · Tracy 42 (R)D+17Checked release
Illinois GovernorSep 30–Oct 1, 2026Public Policy Polling
for Chicago News Weekly
569 LVPritzker 54 (D) · Bailey 34 (R)D+20Checked release
Illinois SenateSep 30–Oct 1, 2026Public Policy Polling
for Chicago News Weekly
569 LVStratton 49 (D) · Tracy 36 (R)D+13Checked release
IL-4Jul 31–Aug 1, 2026Independent Center Voice653 RVGarcia 34 (D) · Castillo 15 (R) · Getty 9 (I)D+19Checked release
Illinois GovernorNov 20–24, 2025Victory Research1208 LVPritzker 54 (D) · Bailey 34 (R)D+20Checked release

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Illinois Senate2Oct 20, 2026D+15 (2)D+17Illinois Senate forecast
Illinois Governor3Oct 22, 2026D+19 (2)D+21Illinois Governor forecast
IL-41Aug 1, 2026D+19 (1)—IL-4 forecast