Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho Senate | Sep 28–30, 2026 | Peak Insights for Jim Risch for U.S. Senate Committee campaign internal | 500 LV | Risch 49 (R) · Achilles 24 (I) | Risch+25 | Citation unreadable release |
| Idaho Senate | Aug 11–13, 2026 | Peak Insights for Jim Risch for U.S. Senate Committee campaign internal | 500 LV | Risch 52 (R) · Achilles 18 (I) · Fleming 9 (I) · Loesby 2 (L) | Risch+34 | Checked release |
| Idaho Senate | Aug 4–7, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group for Achilles's campaign campaign internal | 608 LV | Achilles 38 (I) · Risch 33 (R) | Achilles+5 | Release found release |
| Idaho Governor | Jul 28–30, 2026 | Change Research for Stegner for Idaho campaign internal | 1213 LV | Little 48 (R) · Pickens 27 (D) · Stegner 11 (I) | R+21 | Checked release |
| ID-1 | Jul 28–30, 2026 | Change Research for Poll conducted behalf of John Stegner's campaign partisan sponsor | 606 LV | Fulcher 48 (R) · Peterson 27 (D) · Zabel 5 (I) | R+21 | Release found release |
| ID-1 | Jul 7–14, 2026 | SurveyUSA for Zabel's campaign partisan sponsor | 480 LV | Fulcher 45 (R) · Peterson 35 (D) | R+10 | Citation unreadable release |
| Idaho Senate | May 29–Jun 1, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group for Achilles's campaign partisan sponsor | 774 RV | Risch 40 (R) · Achilles 36 (I) | Risch+4 | Checked release |
| Idaho Senate | Mar 16–17, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for Todd Achilles for Idaho campaign internal | 639 RV | Risch 48 (R) · Achilles 34 (I) | Risch+14 | Checked release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho Governor | 1 | Jul 30, 2026 | R+21 (1) | R+24 | Idaho Governor forecast |
| Idaho Senate | 5 | Sep 30, 2026 | R+25 (1) | R+17 | Idaho Senate forecast |
| ID-1 | 2 | Jul 30, 2026 | R+16 (2) | — | ID-1 forecast |