Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Governor | Oct 6–12, 2026 | GreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart University | 1000 RV | Lamont 53 (D) · Fazio 31 (R) | D+22 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Oct 8–12, 2026 | Wesleyan University/YouGov for Poll conducted in partnership with The Connecticut Project and The Connecticut Mirror | 1000 RV | Lamont 53 (D) · Fazio 32 (R) | D+21 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Oct 10–12, 2026 | Emerson College for Nexstar Media | 800 LV | Lamont 51 (D) · Fazio 38 (R) | D+13 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Oct 8–12, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 1225 LV | Lamont 58 (D) · Fazio 38 (R) | D+20 | Checked release |
| CT-5 | Sep 29–Oct 1, 2026 | OnMessage Inc. for Shea's campaign partisan sponsor | — | Hayes 51 (D) · Shea 45 (R) | D+6 | Not checked yet release |
| Connecticut Governor | Sep 17–21, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 540 LV | Lamont 55 (D) · Fazio 38 (R) | D+17 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Sep 16–17, 2026 | co/efficient | 979 LV | Lamont 48 (D) · Fazio 41 (R) | D+7 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Sep 8–14, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 1288 LV | Lamont 55 (D) · Fazio 38 (R) | D+17 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Sep 1–8, 2026 | GreatBlue Research | 1000 RV | Lamont 48 (D) · Fazio 34 (R) | D+14 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Aug 20–24, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 809 LV | Lamont 52 (D) · Fazio 37 (R) | D+15 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Jul 21–26, 2026 | Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider | 1000 RV | Lamont 50 (D) · Fazio 30 (R) | D+20 | Checked release |
| Connecticut Governor | Jun 18–23, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 828 LV | Lamont 49 (D) · Fazio 36 (R) | D+13 | Checked |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Governor | 11 | Oct 12, 2026 | D+17 (7) | D+18 | Connecticut Governor forecast |
| CT-5 | 1 | Oct 1, 2026 | D+6 (1) | — | CT-5 forecast |