The president's party trailed in the national House vote in fifteen of the twenty midterms from 1946 to 2022; the only earlier midterm with approval as low as this year's 36% was 1946, when the president's party trailed in the national House vote by 8.6 points
Every midterm since 1946, placed by the president's approval going into the autumn and how the president's party then did in the national House vote. The ringed dot is 2026: this year's approval and the national model's estimate of the House vote, which moves until the votes are counted. The worst result was 1974, when the president's party lost by 17.1 points.
Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.
How to read it. Up is a better result for the president's party, right a more popular president. Most dots sit below the zero line: the president's party usually loses ground in a midterm. The estimate is not a result; once the votes are counted it becomes an ordinary dot.
Source. Approval: Gallup, August to September of each midterm year (for this year, the mean of published averages moved onto Gallup's scale); House vote: the national popular vote margin; the estimate: FutureBallot's national House model, as on the Environment page. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:37 AM Pacific.