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A chart from Is This a Wave Year?

Is This a Wave Year?

A Democratic presidentA Republican president-20-15-10-50+5+1030%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%President's approval going into the midtermHouse vote margin for the president's party, pointsShaded: the president's party behind in the national House vote1946: approval 33%, House margin for the president's party -8.619461950: approval 39%, House margin for the president's party +0.619501954: approval 65%, House margin for the president's party -5.519541958: approval 56%, House margin for the president's party -12.519581962: approval 65%, House margin for the president's party +5.319621966: approval 48%, House margin for the president's party +2.719661970: approval 54%, House margin for the president's party -8.819701974: approval 53%, House margin for the president's party -17.119741978: approval 43%, House margin for the president's party +9.019781982: approval 42%, House margin for the president's party -12.219821986: approval 62%, House margin for the president's party -10.019861990: approval 74%, House margin for the president's party -8.119901994: approval 41%, House margin for the president's party -7.019941998: approval 64%, House margin for the president's party -1.219982002: approval 67%, House margin for the president's party +5.020022006: approval 40%, House margin for the president's party -8.320062010: approval 45%, House margin for the president's party -7.020102014: approval 42%, House margin for the president's party -5.920142018: approval 40%, House margin for the president's party -8.720182022: approval 43%, House margin for the president's party -2.820222026: approval 36%, the model's estimate -6.92026: model's estimate

The president's party trailed in the national House vote in fifteen of the twenty midterms from 1946 to 2022; the only earlier midterm with approval as low as this year's 36% was 1946, when the president's party trailed in the national House vote by 8.6 points

  • A Democratic president
  • A Republican president

Forecast as of November 2, 2026. See it in context · Preview image (PNG, 1200 by 630)