History · districts, 2020 and 2024

The Diploma Divide

The most-educated tenth of districts had an average 2024 presidential margin of D+30.5; the least-educated tenth, R+15.1

All 435 House districts as drawn for 2026, sorted from the fewest adults with a bachelor's degree (top) to the most (bottom). Each dot is the district's 2024 presidential margin, and the tail on that dot reaches back to 2020. Holding the lines fixed means every tail is a change in how the same places voted.

Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.

How to read it. On average the most-educated tenth is 57% graduates and the least-educated 20%. The dot is 2024 and the line runs back to the 2020 result: a dot at the left end of its line moved toward Republicans, one at the right end toward Democrats. Nineteen districts changed sides. Margins beyond eighty points are drawn at the edge.

Source. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2019–2023 (adults twenty-five and over with a bachelor's degree), on each district's 2026 lines; presidential two-party margins as FutureBallot recomputes them on 2026 lines, from precinct, block-level and official district returns, some of them estimates where precincts cross district lines. 2016 is not shown: FutureBallot holds it only by state. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:39 AM Pacific.

Link to this chartChart image pageDownload the data (CSV)Free to republish with credit to FutureBallot.