A chart from When the Forecast Disagreed With the Polls
When the Forecast Disagreed With the Polls Forecast closer (circle) Polls closer (square) Agreed within three points R+30 R+30 R+15 R+15 Even Even D/I+15 D/I+15 D/I+30 D/I+30 Average of the final three weeks' polls FutureBallot's rebuilt election-eve forecast Forecast more Democratic than the polls Forecast more Republican than the polls OK governor 2018: polls R+4.7, forecast R+5.1, result R+12.1 ND governor 2016: polls R+40.3, forecast R+37.3, result R+57.2; polls closer OH governor 2018: polls D+2.4, forecast R+0.2, result R+3.7 AR senate 2020: polls R+45.0, forecast R+36.8, result R+33.1; forecast closer NH governor 2020: polls R+19.2, forecast R+21.3, result R+31.8 KS senate 2016: polls R+25.6, forecast R+25.3, result R+29.9 FL senate 2018: polls D+1.2, forecast D+4.0, result R+0.1 NY senate 2022: polls D+16.4, forecast D+18.3, result D+14.0 NH governor 2022: polls R+16.2, forecast R+17.4, result R+15.6 WA governor 2024: polls D+12.2, forecast D+11.2, result D+11.3 NJ senate 2020: polls D+25.0, forecast D+24.1, result D+16.3 MA governor 2018: polls R+40.0, forecast R+34.1, result R+33.6; forecast closer GA governor 2022: polls R+7.5, forecast R+7.0, result R+7.5 FL governor 2022: polls R+9.9, forecast R+9.7, result R+19.4 FL senate 2024: polls R+5.1, forecast R+6.4, result R+12.8 TN governor 2018: polls R+14.1, forecast R+16.0, result R+21.0 NC governor 2016: polls D+4.5, forecast D+2.7, result D+0.2 NY governor 2022: polls D+6.4, forecast D+7.9, result D+6.4 ND senate 2016: polls R+48.2, forecast R+46.1, result R+61.6 CO senate 2020: polls D+10.4, forecast D+8.2, result D+9.3 MN senate 2020: polls D+8.1, forecast D+10.7, result D+5.2 NJ senate 2018: polls D+8.9, forecast D+11.8, result D+11.2 CO senate 2016: polls D+6.5, forecast D+9.8, result D+5.7; polls closer NY senate 2018: polls D+25.3, forecast D+30.8, result D+34.0; forecast closer TN senate 2020: polls R+21.0, forecast R+21.2, result R+27.0 MI senate 2018: polls D+9.2, forecast D+14.4, result D+6.5; polls closer TX governor 2022: polls R+6.7, forecast R+7.9, result R+10.9 OR senate 2022: polls D+14.8, forecast D+15.8, result D+14.9 MD senate 2024: polls D+13.1, forecast D+13.6, result D+11.8 MT senate 2024: polls R+4.7, forecast R+6.3, result R+7.1 UT senate 2022: polls R+10.0, forecast R+8.8, result R+10.4 OK senate 2022: polls R+18.5, forecast R+22.6, result R+32.2; forecast closer OK governor 2022: polls R+4.0, forecast R+7.2, result R+13.7; forecast closer NY senate 2016: polls D+43.7, forecast D+43.9, result D+43.5 AK senate 2020: polls R+3.2, forecast R+3.1, result R+12.7 ID senate 2016: polls R+26.0, forecast R+32.4, result R+38.4; forecast closer AZ senate 2020: polls D+6.5, forecast D+3.2, result D+2.3; forecast closer NC senate 2022: polls R+3.8, forecast R+3.9, result R+3.2 MT governor 2020: polls R+3.6, forecast R+5.0, result R+12.9 CA senate 2018: polls D+12.7, forecast D+14.1, result D+8.3 UT governor 2024: polls R+24.5, forecast R+27.8, result R+24.4; polls closer NV senate 2022: polls R+0.8, forecast R+1.0, result D+0.8 IL governor 2022: polls D+13.4, forecast D+12.5, result D+12.5 NH governor 2018: polls R+5.0, forecast R+7.1, result R+7.0 CA senate 2024: polls D+22.0, forecast D+24.0, result D+17.7 TX senate 2018: polls R+5.1, forecast R+5.9, result R+2.6 IN governor 2016: polls D+2.8, forecast D+1.7, result R+6.0 PA senate 2016: polls D+2.9, forecast D+2.2, result R+1.4 MO senate 2022: polls R+11.6, forecast R+13.0, result R+13.3 IA senate 2016: polls R+18.5, forecast R+18.1, result R+24.4 MI senate 2024: polls D+3.4, forecast D+3.8, result D+0.3 UT governor 2016: polls R+27.9, forecast R+35.5, result R+38.0; forecast closer UT governor 2020: polls R+24.5, forecast R+31.8, result R+33.1; forecast closer MA senate 2020: polls D+35.0, forecast D+28.4, result D+33.2; polls closer FL governor 2018: polls D+3.4, forecast D+3.5, result R+0.4 AL senate 2020: polls R+10.9, forecast R+12.5, result R+20.4 AK governor 2018: polls R+2.5, forecast R+10.0, result R+7.0; forecast closer NC senate 2020: polls D+3.1, forecast D+2.2, result R+1.7 AZ senate 2024: polls D+4.9, forecast D+4.7, result D+2.4 AZ senate 2018: polls R+0.5, forecast D+2.2, result D+2.3 WA senate 2016: polls D+21.8, forecast D+20.4, result D+18.0 OR governor 2022: polls D+1.7, forecast D+0.1, result D+3.4 IA governor 2022: polls R+16.2, forecast R+17.5, result R+18.5 VA senate 2020: polls D+16.7, forecast D+16.8, result D+12.1 TN senate 2018: polls R+5.4, forecast R+7.3, result R+10.8 CT senate 2016: polls D+25.2, forecast D+26.5, result D+28.6 NM senate 2024: polls D+6.5, forecast D+8.9, result D+10.1 AR governor 2018: polls R+30.0, forecast R+31.7, result R+33.6 HI senate 2016: polls D+42.3, forecast D+41.5, result D+51.4 MO senate 2024: polls R+9.0, forecast R+11.6, result R+13.7 NV governor 2018: polls R+1.0, forecast R+1.1, result D+4.1 CT governor 2022: polls D+16.2, forecast D+12.9, result D+12.8; forecast closer NV senate 2018: polls D+0.3, forecast D+0.4, result D+5.1 WI senate 2016: polls D+2.1, forecast D+5.2, result R+3.4; polls closer PA governor 2022: polls D+10.7, forecast D+9.4, result D+14.8 WA governor 2016: polls D+12.3, forecast D+11.2, result D+8.8 MA governor 2022: polls D+27.5, forecast D+24.4, result D+29.2; polls closer ME senate 2020: polls D+3.8, forecast D+2.6, result R+8.6 MA senate 2018: polls D+24.7, forecast D+30.4, result D+24.2; polls closer FL senate 2016: polls R+4.9, forecast R+4.6, result R+7.7 OK senate 2022: polls R+12.5, forecast R+16.7, result R+26.5; forecast closer MS senate 2020: polls R+5.5, forecast R+10.9, result R+10.0; forecast closer NE senate 2024: polls R+18.0, forecast R+21.1, result R+25.2; forecast closer CO governor 2018: polls D+8.3, forecast D+7.6, result D+10.6 MT senate 2020: polls R+1.3, forecast R+3.4, result R+10.0 WA senate 2024: polls D+17.5, forecast D+19.1, result D+18.5 PA senate 2024: polls D+2.7, forecast D+3.3, result R+0.2 NH senate 2020: polls D+15.5, forecast D+16.1, result D+15.7 IA governor 2018: polls D+2.2, forecast R+1.1, result R+2.7; forecast closer MA senate 2024: polls D+22.8, forecast D+24.8, result D+19.8 OK senate 2016: polls R+25.3, forecast R+27.1, result R+43.2 ME senate 2024: polls D+20.5, forecast D+24.1, result D+17.4; polls closer SD governor 2018: polls D+0.5, forecast R+4.2, result R+3.4; forecast closer VT senate 2016: polls D+38.9, forecast D+38.4, result D+28.3 ME governor 2018: polls D+12.5, forecast D+8.9, result D+7.7; forecast closer AR governor 2022: polls R+14.5, forecast R+23.0, result R+27.8; forecast closer OH governor 2022: polls R+20.4, forecast R+19.6, result R+25.1 MO governor 2024: polls R+13.7, forecast R+15.0, result R+20.4 NM senate 2020: polls D+9.5, forecast D+12.0, result D+6.1 OH senate 2022: polls R+4.7, forecast R+4.9, result R+6.1 NJ senate 2024: polls D+19.0, forecast D+15.7, result D+9.6; forecast closer DE governor 2016: polls D+17.7, forecast D+24.2, result D+19.2; polls closer CA senate 2016: polls D+20.5, forecast D+21.3, result D+23.2 OH senate 2018: polls D+11.3, forecast D+12.4, result D+6.8 NC governor 2024: polls D+14.8, forecast D+12.4, result D+14.8 AZ senate 2022: polls D+1.6, forecast D+1.9, result D+4.9 NH senate 2016: polls D+2.7, forecast Even, result D+0.1 CT governor 2018: polls D+4.4, forecast D+7.5, result D+3.2; polls closer CT senate 2022: polls D+17.7, forecast D+14.8, result D+14.9 MN senate 2018: polls D+20.2, forecast D+22.7, result D+24.1 MT senate 2018: polls D+5.3, forecast D+3.7, result D+3.6 FL senate 2022: polls R+8.1, forecast R+9.0, result R+16.4 MD senate 2016: polls D+33.7, forecast D+28.4, result D+25.2; forecast closer OH senate 2016: polls R+15.2, forecast R+16.1, result R+20.9 CA governor 2022: polls D+20.8, forecast D+21.4, result D+18.4 NH governor 2016: polls D+5.0, forecast D+1.4, result R+2.3; forecast closer WA governor 2020: polls D+17.0, forecast D+21.4, result D+13.5; polls closer NV senate 2016: polls D+1.4, forecast D+1.2, result D+2.5 KS governor 2018: polls D+1.2, forecast R+0.7, result D+5.1 WI senate 2018: polls D+11.5, forecast D+13.8, result D+10.8 GA senate 2016: polls R+9.7, forecast R+10.9, result R+13.8 NY senate 2024: polls D+23.6, forecast D+23.5, result D+18.3 MN senate 2018: polls D+8.2, forecast D+9.9, result D+10.6 OR senate 2016: polls D+30.2, forecast D+26.2, result D+23.3; forecast closer WI governor 2022: polls R+0.7, forecast R+0.5, result D+3.4 PA senate 2018: polls D+13.2, forecast D+15.2, result D+13.1 VA senate 2024: polls D+9.4, forecast D+12.0, result D+9.0 CA governor 2018: polls D+15.5, forecast D+17.4, result D+23.9 MO senate 2018: polls R+1.6, forecast R+1.3, result R+5.8 SD senate 2016: polls R+32.0, forecast R+27.2, result R+43.7; polls closer MI senate 2020: polls D+7.2, forecast D+8.6, result D+1.7 NH senate 2022: polls D+2.4, forecast D+2.6, result D+9.2 AZ senate 2016: polls R+8.3, forecast R+9.6, result R+13.0 WI senate 2024: polls D+1.8, forecast D+2.4, result D+0.8 IL senate 2016: polls D+15.0, forecast D+10.4, result D+15.1; polls closer MI governor 2022: polls D+5.1, forecast D+5.9, result D+10.5 ME senate 2018: polls D+13.5, forecast D+18.4, result D+19.1; forecast closer IN senate 2016: polls R+4.5, forecast R+1.2, result R+9.7; polls closer AZ governor 2022: polls R+3.0, forecast R+3.1, result D+0.7 PA governor 2018: polls D+18.2, forecast D+15.9, result D+17.1 IA senate 2020: polls D+0.6, forecast R+2.3, result R+6.6 ME governor 2022: polls D+9.7, forecast D+7.9, result D+13.2 MI governor 2018: polls D+8.6, forecast D+9.1, result D+9.6 MO governor 2016: polls D+2.8, forecast D+2.9, result R+5.6 OR governor 2016: polls D+12.0, forecast D+11.3, result D+7.2 VT governor 2016: polls R+5.0, forecast R+3.7, result R+8.8 UT senate 2024: polls R+31.5, forecast R+33.4, result R+30.8 MN governor 2022: polls D+7.8, forecast D+6.2, result D+7.7 IN senate 2018: polls D+0.1, forecast D+0.2, result R+5.9 IL senate 2022: polls D+14.3, forecast D+15.3, result D+15.3 CA senate 2022: polls D+25.0, forecast D+26.9, result D+22.1 TX senate 2024: polls R+3.3, forecast R+5.4, result R+8.5 IN governor 2020: polls R+24.7, forecast R+25.8, result R+24.5 CT senate 2018: polls D+19.3, forecast D+22.5, result D+20.2; polls closer UT senate 2016: polls R+30.5, forecast R+36.1, result R+41.1; forecast closer MT governor 2016: polls D+4.7, forecast D+1.7, result D+3.9 TX governor 2018: polls R+17.2, forecast R+16.9, result R+13.3 TX senate 2020: polls R+5.4, forecast R+8.1, result R+9.6 NC senate 2016: polls R+0.4, forecast R+1.3, result R+5.7 WI governor 2018: polls D+2.2, forecast D+3.4, result D+1.1 ND senate 2018: polls R+11.3, forecast R+11.4, result R+10.9 WV governor 2016: polls R+3.7, forecast D+2.5, result D+6.8; forecast closer WV senate 2018: polls D+6.0, forecast D+5.7, result D+3.3 NM governor 2022: polls D+4.2, forecast D+5.9, result D+6.4 NC governor 2020: polls D+10.1, forecast D+10.8, result D+4.5 AL senate 2016: polls R+23.6, forecast R+33.8, result R+28.1; polls closer PA senate 2022: polls D+0.3, forecast D+0.1, result D+4.9 KY senate 2020: polls R+8.6, forecast R+11.6, result R+19.5 MN senate 2024: polls D+14.5, forecast D+13.1, result D+15.7 NH governor 2024: polls D+0.9, forecast R+5.9, result R+9.4; forecast closer NV senate 2024: polls D+5.0, forecast D+5.5, result D+1.7 WA senate 2022: polls D+5.0, forecast D+8.3, result D+14.6; forecast closer AR senate 2016: polls R+14.1, forecast R+21.3, result R+23.6; forecast closer NY governor 2018: polls D+17.7, forecast D+22.5, result D+23.4; forecast closer MS senate 2018: polls R+17.0, forecast R+17.5, result R+19.0 NM senate 2018: polls D+15.0, forecast D+20.8, result D+23.6; forecast closer CO governor 2022: polls D+11.9, forecast D+12.3, result D+19.3 MN governor 2018: polls D+8.0, forecast D+8.5, result D+11.4 NE senate 2024: polls R+3.3, forecast R+1.9, result R+6.7 GA governor 2018: polls R+1.5, forecast R+0.7, result R+1.4 SC senate 2020: polls R+3.1, forecast R+4.0, result R+10.3 AZ governor 2018: polls R+16.2, forecast R+13.5, result R+14.2 CO senate 2022: polls D+9.6, forecast D+8.0, result D+14.6 NM governor 2018: polls D+9.2, forecast D+8.7, result D+14.4 IA senate 2022: polls R+9.0, forecast R+10.7, result R+12.2 SC senate 2016: polls R+18.7, forecast R+23.0, result R+23.6; forecast closer WI senate 2022: polls R+3.7, forecast R+3.6, result R+1.0 IL senate 2020: polls D+23.5, forecast D+25.8, result D+16.1 KY senate 2016: polls R+7.3, forecast R+10.6, result R+14.5; forecast closer KS senate 2020: polls R+5.2, forecast R+6.4, result R+11.4 NV governor 2022: polls R+1.6, forecast R+2.0, result R+1.5 MO governor 2020: polls R+6.7, forecast R+9.6, result R+16.4 MO senate 2016: polls D+1.6, forecast R+2.4, result R+2.8; forecast closer OR governor 2018: polls D+4.0, forecast D+6.6, result D+6.4 OH senate 2024: polls R+1.4, forecast R+0.8, result R+3.6 Where they differed by more than three points: forecast closer: 33 polls closer: 17 Of all 195 races: in 145 the forecast and the polls agreed within three points Where FutureBallot's rebuilt forecasts and the polls differed by more than three points, the rebuilt forecast came closer more often: the forecast in thirty-three races, the polls in seventeen
Forecast as of November 2, 2026. See it in context · Preview image (PNG, 1200 by 630)
Share X Bluesky Facebook Email Copy link More… 